Thiruvananthapuram: Every time the stage is set for the Assembly elections in Kerala, community heads and religious leaders are a group which seem to get a VVIP aura for a certain period.
Political party leaders waiting with scheduled appointments to meet up religious and communal community leaders has been a usual affair in Kerala during every election time.
This time, it was the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan who first met the community heads in the State.
After the Left front’s scintillating victory in the civic body elections, Pinarayi Vijayan met the community heads, religious leaders and caste organisation leaders in each district in the State.
The CM’s meetings were scheduled at particular venues in each of the districts. Soon, the UDF leaders also started their visits to the religious heads and communal leaders. The BJP followed suit too.
Though it is the three fronts led by mainstream parties - the Congress, the CPM and the BJP - that contest in elections in Kerala, this trend of pleasing the community and religious leaders indicates that, right from candidate selection to the victory in the polls, everything is based on caste, religion and community in Kerala.
This time, unlike in the previous elections, the BJP is also trying hard to please the Christian Churches.
The Caste and Religion statistics in Kerala
As per the census in 2001, the total population in Kerala is 3.48 crores. Once the latest census is complete, it is expected to be 3.7 crores.
As much as 54.73 per cent of the total populace are Hindus, while 26.56 per cent comprises of Muslims and 18.38 per cent of the populace are Christians.
The two main sub-sections under the Hindu religion are the Ezhavas and the Nairs.
The Influence of SNDP
Of the total populace of Kerala, 27 per cent are Ezhavas. Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), led by its General Secretary Vellappally Nadeshan, is a major community organisation which represents the Ezhavas. The SNDP is headquartered at Cherthala, in Alappuzha district of Kerala.
As per statistics, the SNDP is said to have a major influence in about 50 constituencies spread in the districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Thrissur, Palakkad and Kannur. Hence, all political parties give significance to gaining the support of the SNDP.
The SNDP, in the recent past, has supported the CPM in the crucial topics including the women entry to Sabarimala.
In the by-elections which were held during the current LDF governance, the SNDP has stood by the LDF and pledged support to the Left front.
However, during the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, despite SNDP’s support for the LDF, a decisive factor usually, the UDF won in 19 of the 20 seats in Kerala.
The UDF is said to have achieved a sweeping victory then, for the following factors: The Government’s favourable stand on Sabarimala women entry, consolidation of minorities against the BJP, and Rahul Gandhi’s presence in Kerala. But, in the 5 Assembly by-elections that followed, the LDF could win 2 of the sitting UDF constituencies with the support of the SNDP.
NSS, another decisive power
Seventeen per cent of Kerala’s populace comprise of the Nair community. The National Democratic Party (NDP) the political party of Nair Service Society (NSS) was earlier an ally with the Under Democratic Front led by the Congress. However, the NDP was dissolved in 1986.
Thereafter, the NSS had been pledging allegiance with the UDF.
From 1995, the NSS adheres to a stand of ‘Equidistance’ from all political fronts in Kerala and claims to stick on with this policy.
To make the equidistant policy favourable to them, political party leaders in Kerala visit NSS headquarters in Changanassery, Kottayam District and seek ‘Nair’ support prior to elections from NSS general secretary G Sukumaran Nair.
NSS is considered to be highly influential in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam Thrissur and Palakkad districts.
The NSS was the first to take to the streets in protest when the Supreme Court passed a verdict in favour of women entry at Sabarimala and the LDF Government attempted to execute the Court order.
Later, even when the BJP carried on with strong and rigorous protests across Kerala, the NSS never shared the protest stages with the BJP. Though Amit Shah was prepared to visit the NSS headquarters in each of his visits to Kerala, the NSS leadership never showed interest.
The NSS’s stand of not being ready to let go of its ‘secular’ face in the public gives the LDF and the UDF hope.
The LDF surge in local body elections
LDF swept the Civic Body polls and marked a scintillating victory, upending all assumptions and calculations that the allegations against the CM office’s involvement in the gold smuggling through diplomatic baggage channel case and the investigation against Minister K.T. Jaleel would work in favour of the UDF in the Local Body elections.
This was a shocker to the UDF, which had been dreaming of coming to power in the Assembly elections, with some political gimmicks and continuous allegations against the Government. With a new realisation that the previous tricks dint work, the UDF leaders are trying all means to win the Assembly by taking sides with the communal and religious leaders.
Led by former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, who has a strong bonding with the Christian churches, the UDF leaders first met the Syro Malankara Catholic Churches head Cardinal Mar Climmees Catholic Bava and sought the Church’s support.
It is this Church that has most of the strength of the total Christian populace of 18.38 per cent.
This community has great influence in the Central Travancore belt, specifically Kottayam, Pathanamthitta and Idukki districts.
The UDF leaders also met Syro Malabar Catholic Church head Cardinal Mar Joseph Alanchery at the headquarters in Thrissur seeking support in the North of Kerala.
Syro Malabar Catholic Church is influential among the Christians in Thrissur, Ernakulam, Wayanad and Kannur districts.
This community, which has been UDF’s vote bank traditionally, is suspected to have supported the LDF in the Local Body polls in December 2020, as the UDF was sabotaged in the previously UDF fortes in the regions where the Church had influence.
Jose K Mani faction of Kerala Congress, which had the Church’s support, breaking up with the UDF and allying with the Left would have also caused the drift of the Christian population, it has been analysed.
The Congress fears that there could be a huge set back in at least 30 constituencies if the leak of the traditional Christian votes is plugged.
UDF also pleases the Muslim leaders
The Indian Union of Muslim League (IUML) is influential in the Kozhikode, Malappuram, and Kasaragod districts of Kerala where the Muslim population is dominant.
Muslim League has been an ally in the UDF for more than 40 years now. Besides, Muslim League, there are a few other Muslim communal groups which are also influential in these belts.
A prominent group among them is the ‘Sunnis’ led by Kanthapuram A P Aboobacker Musaliyar.
In the last Assembly elections, Kanthapuram’s Sunni Muslims had supported the LDF in Malappuram, Kozhikode and Kasaragod districts. The LDF could defeat the UDF in about ten
seats with the support of the Sunnis. The opinion differences Kanthapuram had with the IUML leadership also made him support the LDF.
To avoid a repeat of that trend, the IUML took the initiative and has already settled the issues with Kanthapuram. The League leaders made many reconciliation talks with Kanthapuram.
All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary Tariq Anwar, who is in charge of Kerala, had visited Kandhapuram at Malappuram and sought his support for the Congress.
Samastha Kerala Jamiyat Ul Ulema also known as the E K Sunni faction is another group which has a strong influence among the Muslims.
The decisive power this Sunni faction has in about a dozen seats in Malappuram and Kozhikode is very clear to both the fronts.
Though Pinarayi Vijayan had reached Malappuram to ensure their support with the LDF, the frontline leaders of the EK Sunni faction did not relent. Finally, Pinarayi had to meet with their third line leaders and return.
In the upcoming Assembly elections, the UDF is hopeful that it would get the support of both the Sunni factions and thereby win a large majority of the 30 seats in Malappuram and Kozhikode.
Another Muslim organisation Jama-at e Islami and its political arm Welfare Party of India, which was later formed, have been pledging allegiance to the LDF for long. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Welfare Party supported the UDF.
Before the 2020 Local Body elections, IUML took the initiative and reached an agreement with the Welfare Party.
However, when the LDF unleashed campaigns that the UDF is teaming with communal groups, the UDF backpedalled from the move.
The Welfare Party’s stand in the ensuing election is crucial for both the fronts - the LDF and the UDF.
Latin Christian influence in coastal constituencies
The Latin Christians form about 4 per cent of the total populace in the State. They are highly influential especially in the Coastal constituencies in Kerala.
Their hold in certain constituencies of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Ernakulam, and Thrissur districts cannot be neglected.
Poll victory in 7 constituencies in Ernakulam district is in the hands of the Latin Christians.
Giving hope for the UDF, most of the Latin Christian voters stand by the Congress Front.
BJP sets an eye on Christian Churches too
Even as the row between the two main Christian Churches in Kerala - the Jacobites and the Orthodox - intensifies, the BJP tries to gain politically. The Supreme Court had recently passed an order letting the Orthodox faction administer more than 30 of the Churches governed by Jacobites, aggravating the situation. The Jacobite faction took to the streets after losing their Churches.
The state BJP leadership is trying to bring Prime Minister Narendra Modi to intervene and resolve the matter.
PS Sreedharan Pillai, Mizoram Governor and former BJP State president is attempting to work this out.
Through this strategy, the BJP is eyeing at gaining votes of both the Orthodox and the Jacobite factions.
In short, the picture given by the major three alliances in Kerala is that the election is only a battle between religion, caste and community powers, deep within, while the politics and principles are only in the superficial level.
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