Myanmar’s military coup and its changing political dynamics

With the world leaders condemning the military coup and stepping ahead to curb diplomatic ties with the nation, it is likely to do further damage to the country’s already suffering economy. For instance, Japanese giant Kirin has already ended its deal with a leading Myanmar conglomerate linked to the military, after the coup. Similarly, other foreign investors are also pulling out. Most recently, the United States sanctioned Myanmar, right after a few weeks of Military taking over. According to reports, 10 individuals and three organizations have been sanctioned “who played a leading role in the overthrow of Burma’s democratically elected government.”

New Delhi: The coup in Myanmar in early February, the first in more than three decades, has brought in a huge change in the political dynamics of the country. With the detention of leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the military taking over, the nation is currently witnessing some of the darkest days.

Protests and demonstration by people of all age groups, demanding the release of elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi are rising in the country but the army has issued warnings, threatening action. In fact, on Saturday, Myanmar’s junta urged civil servants to return to work and raised the possibility of action against those who do not.

Now it remains to be seen how, after such a big blow, the democracy in the country will be restored. How this battle between democratic beliefs and military authoritarianism plays out is of increasing concern. What would be the role of the international community in it?

Speaking to ETV Bharat former ambassador and Deputy Secretary (Myanmar) in the Ministry of External Affairs Jitendra Tripathi said, “In the International community most of the Western countries, who are guided by the human rights attitude are against it. They are saying that human rights have been violated and democracy has been compromised, a coup has taken place and military will absorb the powers from the democracy, so they will protest against it.

It has been their take right from the beginning but even then, the international community forgets one thing that in Myanmar, there had been more than 50 years (1962-2012) of military dictatorship. After that, there was a semblance of democracy when the election took place and Aung San Suu Kyi won with about 66% votes and this time with about 85%.

But it doesn’t mean that during the 50 years of a military coup, none of the countries has maintained a relationship with Myanmar, because 20 countries kept a relationship with Myanmar for 50 years as well. So this time nothing very strange has happened in Myanmar as a military rule is in the blood of Myanmar.”

“My take is that the international community thinks themselves to be the champion of Human Rights. Now as regards India, our situation is different from the western powers. Western powers are far apart from Myanmar; Myanmar is our next-door neighbour and perhaps, India shares the third largest border with Myanmar after China and Bangladesh. One more thing that India needs from Myanmar is to secure our northeastern borders, rather than eastern borders. Some of the northeastern states have been infested by the insurgency activities and to curb that we need the help of our neighbour.

Despite, its military rule, Myanmar allowed Indian army to cross over their border and eradicate the insurgency camps. That is a big advantage for India”, he points out.

India’s stand on the military coup

Tripathi said India’s stand should be or will be that it is Myanmar’s internal problem. Let Myanmarese people decide what is beneficial for them and let the country and its people decide it by peaceful means.

On being asked about the impact on Myanmar’s economy given the situation, Tripathi said that Myanmar’s economy had not been in the right position for quite some time, not only now but even during the military regime and the partly democratic regimes because Myanmar is a reservoir of rich mineral resources but it has not been tapped for the benefit of the people.

He says although the situation is volatile, certainly, India is not going to intervene in that. It is up to Myanmar and its people to decide through negotiations, what type of government they want.

With the world leaders condemning the military coup and stepping ahead to curb diplomatic ties with the nation, it is likely to do further damage to the country’s already suffering economy. For instance, Japanese giant Kirin has already ended its deal with a leading Myanmar conglomerate linked to the military, after the coup. Similarly, other foreign investors are also pulling out. Most recently, the United States had sanctioned Myanmar, right after a few weeks of Military taking over. According to reports, 10 individuals and three organizations have been sanctioned “who played a leading role in the overthrow of Burma’s democratically elected government.”

Changing political dynamics of Myanmar

Politically, China might come closer to Myanmar because General Min Aung Hlaing who has taken over as the Head of the state, had a long talk with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi when the latter came to Myanmar on a visit. And that is why it is suspected that during the talk, he tried to assure Chinese FM that the relationship between China and Myanmar will not worsen but will progress if the military comes to power. Probably, he has been able to convince, Tripathi further points out.

“Surprisingly, China’s relationship with Myanmar’s democratic government till last December was progressing steadily. So Myanmar’s relationship with China will grow, relationship with India will remain static and not grow much but will not deteriorate as well, so is with Bangladesh because Bangladesh only issue was with ‘Rohingyas’. On the Rohingya’s issue, Bangladesh supported Myanmar government’s action. As regards to the US, Canada, France, Britain, Germany etc, will certainly go by their human rights strength. And maybe after the US and UK, some more countries will place a sanction on Military junta,” ambassador Tripathi reiterated.

He further pointed out that the military coup will be present in Myanmar for quite some time. “It will take another 4-5 years before people decide in the next election to have a democratic government. And next, there will be a democratic government in Myanmar because now the people of Myanmar have already tasted democracy, which the entire generation born in the ’60s was unable to do for the last 50 years. They saw Myanmar as a military dictatorship but in 2012, they got the taste of Democracy. So people will push for it. I don’t think military dictatorship will be able to suppress for the next 5 years,” explains Jitendra Tripathi.

Young protesters were seen holding placards outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon on Sunday, demanding China to stop supporting the military’s rule. Overall, the political crisis in Myanmar has taken an ugly turn.