UP Assembly polls 2022 throw surprises and shocks: A sneak peek

With religion and caste being the crucial players in this year's elections, several ministers switching parties had also gotten the hopes for a thrilling fight in the state, but all in vain eventually. Here is a sneak peek into the factors that were not readily expected to progress the way they did in regards to what has been called the 'definitive' assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh.

Hyderabad: The obscure surprises that the results of the UP Assembly elections brought have been shocking for some while amusing for others. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi so confidently hinted at some 'experts' believing the win in UP to be a strong indication of his party's win at the Centre in 2024 during his celebratory speech, it is pertinent to contemplate whether he himself had expected for his party to emerge victorious with such a landslide. With religion and caste being the crucial players in this year's elections, several ministers switching parties had also gotten the hopes for a thrilling fight in the state high; though all in vain eventually.

Here is a sneak peek into the factors that were not readily expected to progress the way they did in regards to what has been called the 'definitive' assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh:

• Several political stalwarts in the state tried making calculated moves as they tried to float with the predicted 'waves' in the state, while some just relied on the caste equations for their math - though very few of them bore desirable fruits to their careful moves. Swami Prasad Maurya, who was a minister in the Yogi cabinet, left the BJP before the elections and joined the SP. With the BJP returning to power, Maurya, who described himself as a weasel, suffered a crushing defeat in Fazilnagar against BJP's Surendra Singh Kushwaha. Similarly, Dharam Singh Saini, who left the BJP to secure a seat on SP's bicycle, also had to digest his defeat. The Sardhana seat of Meerut, one of the important seats of western UP, also surprised everyone with the defeat of BJP's Sangeet Som against SP's Atul Pradhan by a margin of 13,552 votes. The Karhal assembly, though not much of a surprise for others as for BJP, showed grace for SP President Akhilesh Yadav against the BJP candidate and Union Minister SP Baghel. Meanwhile, the BJP also managed to add a tinge of saffron to places it had not ruled over before, including the Mohanlalganj assembly, Sidhauli assembly seat of Sitapur, and Mathura's Math assembly among others.
• The women empowerment factor that Congress' Priyanka Gandhi introduced in the election fray in UP this year seems to have worked, except not for her own party, but for the opposition. Assembly Elections in UP broke the record of getting the highest number of women MLAs elected in the state so far. With 41 women MLAs, the state has added a feather to its cap while breaking its own record of 40 women MLAs elected in the last assembly elections of 2017. BJP bagged the honor to have a maximum of these elected MLAs followed by the SP and Apna Dal, while Congress lagged embarrassingly behind. Despite fielding 160 women candidates with the 'Ladki hu, ladh sakti hu' slogan, Congress managed to just secure a win for one woman candidate from the Rampur constituency.
• Though the UP assembly elections this year were heavily laced with caste and religion politics, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, who entered the fray with smaller parties and a prioritized approach towards the Muslim minorities in the state, fell frail in front of the saffron party. Owaisi had time and again claimed his hold over the Muslim vote bank in UP, while CM Yogi's audaciously provoking comments had only seemed to have worked to Owaisi's advantage. Despite the initial surprises that the results brought with Owaisi's AIMIM failing to secure even one of the total 99 assembly seats that he had fielded candidates for, and even more disappointing surprise awaited him ahead - his party secured a lesser percentage of overall votes compared to the percentage of NOTA votes. While 0.69 percent of the total votes went to NOTA, Owaisi's AIMIM could secure only 0.49 percent votes, clearly reflecting the unwelcoming gesture from the state.
• Despite Owaisi's party facing a defeat in the state, the number of Muslim MLAs in the state is not so disappointing. Yogi Aditynath, who - as the PM quotes it - 'made history by coming back to power in UP, had very audaciously made the '80 vs 20 fight comment' in the religiously charged election environment. The comment had drawn flak from several leaders, even leading to terror among the Muslim candidates in the state. However, 34 candidates across the state belonging to the Muslim community have managed to bag victory, consequently leaving some hope for the minority population in the state where saffron currently seems to be a dominant hue.
• Another facet of the caste politics dynamic that these elections brought conspicuously to the fore is the imbalance BSP faced in Agra, which is also known as the capital of Dalits. Though not a sudden revelation, BSP's performance in the state has been considerably poorer even as BSP chief former CM Mayawati had started the election campaign in UP from here. Over the past 20 years, the downfall had been visible, but not so much as to crush BSP's hopes entirely. For the first time in the 2007 assembly elections, four BSP MLAs were made from Agra. In 2012, their number had increased to six. But since the last two elections, the face and appeal of the BSP seem to be seriously lagging in the state. Some of the constituent assemblies that BSP seems to have lost the hold they once had very firmly include the Fatehabad assembly, Kheragarh assembly, Etmadpur assembly, Bah assembly, and Etmadpur assembly among others.