As Donald Trump’s second administration prepares to take office in January 2025, the political landscape is marked by a mix of certainty and unpredictability. The sense of certainty arises from the deliberate and assertive manner in which Trump is assembling his team, signaling a strong intent to reshape policymaking with a close-knit circle of trusted allies.
Key appointments include Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Perhaps most strikingly, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been tapped to lead the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, indicating a bold ambition to overhaul governance both within Washington, D.C., and on the broader global stage. So, what is goingto projected foreign policy of the newly elected Trump administration, its approach to major global players, and what the world might expect in the coming months.
The Trump administration is making it clear: their foreign policy will be shaped by America’s domestic priorities – inflation, immigration, and trade. Yet, each of these issues will have a rippling effect across borders, impacting international relationships, alliances, and even conflicts.
One of the first things that Donald Trump is expected to focus on and perhaps he has even started is on the issue of conflict resolution, particularly the two ongoing wars, one between Russia and Ukraine in Europe and the other in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas.
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to a conversation during a meeting at the Kremlin, in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. (ETV Bharat via Sputnik) Russia is likely to remain a pressing foreign policy priority under the Trump administration. Early signals point to a strong push to bring the ongoing Ukraine conflict to a close. Trump’s team appears ready to engage diplomatically with Moscow, potentially aiming for a settlement that stabilizes Eastern Europe and curtails further escalation. The motivation is twofold: ending the conflict could stabilize global energy markets, alleviating inflationary pressures—a critical domestic concern for the administration.
However, this strategy is not without risks. An overly conciliatory approach toward Russia might strain relations with European allies, many of whom favor a firmer stance to deter Moscow’s aggressive policies. Trump’s inclination toward direct negotiations, bypassing traditional multilateral forums like NATO, could fundamentally shift the alliance's dynamics.
If Trump successfully brokers a peace deal, it might reshape U.S.-Russia relations, opening avenues for cooperation in areas like counterterrorism or energy. However, the cost could be diminished trust among NATO members and concerns about the U.S. commitment to collective security. Balancing these competing interests will be critical for the administration.
China
President of China Xi Jinping takes part in the Economic Leaders Meeting during the APEC summit in Lima, Peru on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. (The Canadian Press via AP) China remains the most complex and contentious aspect of Trump’s foreign policy. While the administration is expected to maintain a confrontational stance, the focus will likely shift toward economic measures rather than military posturing. Trump’s team has signaled intentions to continue leveraging tariffs, trade barriers, and technology restrictions to counter China’s economic rise and reduce its influence over global supply chains.
Key areas of focus are likely to include controlling the supply chains of advanced technologies, such as semiconductors, and securing access to critical resources like rare earth minerals. This approach reflects Trump’s long-standing commitment to reshoring manufacturing and reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese imports. However, such a strategy carries significant risks. China is a major trade partner for many U.S. allies, and an intensification of economic confrontation could destabilize global markets. The Trump administration will need to strike a delicate balance: advancing its economic goals without alienating allies or triggering a broader economic slowdown. At the same time, this calculated approach could offer opportunities to build coalitions with nations that share concerns about China’s economic and technological dominance. By coordinating with allies in Europe, Asia, and beyond, the administration could amplify the impact of its measures, creating a more united front to check China’s ambitions.
India and the Indo-Pacific
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President-elect of United States of America (USA), Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump at Sabarmati Ashram, in Ahmedabad, Gujarat on February 24, 2020. (ETV Bharat via PIB) In the Indo-Pacific, the Trump administration is expected to adopt a collaborative strategy cantered on burden-sharing among regional powers. India, as a key player in the region, is poised to play a central role in this approach. Trump’s team is likely to encourage India to assume a more active security role, including an expanded naval presence in the Indian Ocean to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
This strategy aligns with Trump’s broader philosophy of “regional responsibility,” which aims to reduce the U.S. security footprint by empowering allies and partners. Enhanced defense collaborations, such as joint military exercises and technology-sharing agreements, are likely to form the cornerstone of this partnership. Initiatives like the Quad—a strategic dialogue among the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—could see further strengthening under this administration.
Nevertheless, the success of this strategy will hinge on careful negotiations. India has historically guarded its strategic autonomy and may resist initiatives perceived as overly prescriptive or misaligned with its national interests. Furthermore, expectations for increased defence spending or commitments from India could test the limits of the partnership. Balancing U.S. interests with India’s priorities will be essential to fostering a sustainable and mutually beneficial alliance.
Impact on the Global Order
President-elect Donald Trump talks on the phone next to Elon Musk during a UFC 309 mixed martial arts flyweight title bout, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in New York. (AP) So, what does all this mean for the international order? Trump’s potential for a diplomatic resolution with Russia, economic measures against China, and shifting responsibilities to regional players like India – all signal a recalibration of the US’s global footprint. This administration seems poised to redefine alliances and trade partnerships, creating a new balance that is simultaneously less interventionist but highly impactful.
While some worry that Trump’s approach could disrupt the international order, there is also a sense that this administration could bring stability to areas of prolonged conflict. If Trump can skilfully navigate his domestic priorities while managing these complex international relationships, the US could emerge as a more economically focused power, recalibrating its global influence in a new, less direct way.
