New Delhi: Though China has defended its decision to go ahead with the construction of a mega-dam on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet, known as the Brahmaputra in India, saying that proper safeguard measures have been taken, the fact of the matter is that it is bound to have a major impact on the lower riparian nations of India and Bangladesh, whether it be hydrological or ecological or even in terms of energy security.
The Chinese government, earlier this week, approved the construction of the dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, state-run Xinhua news agency reported citing an official statement. The dam is expected to be the world’s largest hydroelectric project when completed and will produce nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually. That means it will generate three times the power of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, also in China, which is currently the world’s largest hydroelectric project.
Though the massive project was included in China’s 14th five-year plan from 2021 to 2025, it was only recently that Beijing approved it sparking concerns among experts in India and Bangladesh, countries through which the Brahmaputra flows.
However, the Chinese foreign ministry has defended the construction of the dam saying that China has always been responsible for the development of cross-border rivers. During a regular media briefing on Friday, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that China’s hydropower development in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo river “aims to speed up developing clean energy, and respond to climate change and extreme hydrological disasters”.
“The hydropower development there has been studied in an in-depth way for decades, and safeguard measures have been taken for the security of the project and ecological environment protection,” Mao said. “The project has no negative impact on the lower reaches. China will continue to maintain communication with countries at the lower reaches through existing channels, and step up cooperation on disaster prevention and relief for the benefit of the people by the river.”
However, the fact of the matter is that the Brahmaputra is the lifeline of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, providing water for drinking, irrigation, and hydropower. A dam in Tibet could significantly reduce water flow during dry seasons, affecting agriculture and drinking water supply. Reduced flow could lead to silt deposition in the river, adversely affecting soil fertility in the floodplains.
India’s northeastern region is prone to flooding, particularly during the monsoon. If China decides to release water from the dam during heavy rainfall, it could exacerbate flooding in the downstream areas, causing widespread destruction of life and property.
The Brahmaputra supports extensive agricultural activities in the region. Any alteration in the river’s flow could disrupt farming cycles, impacting the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Changes in sediment transport due to the dam could affect soil quality, reducing agricultural productivity.
The Brahmaputra basin is home to unique ecosystems and diverse species, including the endangered Gangetic dolphin and various migratory birds. Altered river flow could disturb these habitats, leading to a decline in biodiversity. Fish populations that depend on the river’s natural flow for breeding could face severe threats, impacting both ecology and local fishing communities.
The northeastern states of India, particularly Arunachal Pradesh, have ambitious plans for hydropower development on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries. Reduced water flow due to upstream damming could undermine these projects, affecting India’s energy goals.
India has issues over river water sharing with Pakistan and Bangladesh. However, these issues can be resolved through dialogue as India has proper treaties in place with both these countries. With Pakistan, India has the Indus Waters Treaty, and with Bangladesh, it has the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty.
But, with China, India has no such treaty. India and China only have a memorandum of understanding (MoU) under which the Chinese side provides hydrological data on the Brahmaputra. According to experts, this is a temporary agreement that is renewed every five years and China can any time declare it null and void if it wants to.
“India has to understand China’s behaviour,” Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses and a leading commentator on transboundary water issues, told ETV Bharat.
“China is a supreme upper riparian country,” Sinha said. “China shares about 11 rivers with neighbouring countries. In all these cases, China is the upper riparian country.”
He explained that China’s instinct is to use rivers for political and diplomatic purposes and as leverage. “They use the rivers as a mix of force and consent,” he said.
So, what should India do in the light of China’s latest action?
According to Sinha, India should not harbour any apprehension and, instead, proactively take safeguarding measures well in advance.
“We should enhance our capability and capacity along the Brahmaputra on our side,” he said. “We should have very advanced monitoring and verifying capabilities and should not depend on China for hydrological data.” Sinha is of the view that India should enhance its storage capacities along the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh. “But we should do this very carefully taking into account local concerns, displacement of people and seismic activities,” he said.
Sinha also stressed on the need for India to think clearly on embankments. “If China releases water from its side, we should be prepared with flood water diversification and mitigation programmes,” he said. Sinha also advocated the use of satellites by India for flood risk mapping and flood forecasting.
“Telemetry stations on our side need to be upgraded because most of these are not operational,” he said.
Diplomatically, according to Sinha, India should engage in dialogue with China not only on the border issue but also on the Brahmaputra and Sutlej river issues. He said that India should seek China’s response on these issues and the dialogue process should be regular.
Sinha also advocated the initiation by India of a bilateral mechanism with Bangladesh on the Brahmaputra River.
“There should be a Ganga-Meghna-Brahmaputra basin dialogue in which we can bring in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal together,” he said. “This lower riparian coalition can be expanded by bringing in the lower Mekong basin countries as well.”
In this connection, he pointed out that India already has a Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) mechanism with five Southeast Asian countries, namely, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.
“India has a defining role to play in the downstream development of water resources,” Sinha said.
Sheikh Rokon, Secretary-General of the Dhaka-based civil society organisation Riverine People, concurred with Sinha’s views.
“There should be a joint commission or basin-wide commission comprising Bangladesh, India, Bhutan and Nepal,” Rokon told ETV Bharat over the phone from Dhaka. “The Mekong River Commission (MRC) is a good example of this.”
The MRC is an intergovernmental organisation for regional dialogue and cooperation in the Lower Mekong River Basin, established in 1995. It comprises Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. The organisation serves as a regional platform for water diplomacy and a knowledge hub of water resources management for the sustainable development of the region.
Rokon also referred to two international conventions – the Water Convention of 1992 and the UN Watercourses Convention of 1997. While the 1992 convention provides a legal framework for cooperation on shared water resources, such as lakes, rivers, and groundwaters, the 1997 convention establishes rules and standards for the use, management, and protection of international watercourses.
“Both India and China have not ratified either of the conventions,” Rokon said. “Bangladesh has signed the 1997 convention but it is yet to be ratified in our national parliament.”
According to Rokon, the 1997 convention is “more convenient” among the two.
There has been a thaw in recent times in the bilateral ties between India and China following the resolution of the Ladakh border conflict. However, now, with China’s decision to construct the mega-dam in Tibet, there are fresh speculations as to where the future of the relationship between the two Asian giants is headed.
