Fresh Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: What is Chief Adviser Yunus implying?

When will fresh parliamentary elections be held in Bangladesh? Experts explain to ETV Bharat what the ground situation implies.

New Delhi: Cryptic comments by Bangladesh interim government Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus regarding holding fresh parliamentary elections have drawn some sharp reactions from the country’s political stakeholders while also raising the spectre of instability in the South Asian region.

During an address to the nation Sunday on the completion of 100 days of the interim government, Yunus appealed to the people of his country to be patient, saying that once decisions on electoral reforms are finalised, “you will soon receive a detailed roadmap for the polls”.

“Until then, I request your patience,” he said. “We aim to establish an electoral system that can be a model for generations to come. This will safeguard our nation from the recurring annual political crises. For this, I am asking for the necessary time from you.”

However, in a separate interview with Qatar-based media outlet Al Jazeera, Yunus implied that the interim government might take up to four years to hold fresh parliamentary elections. “While the exact timeframe for the interim government’s tenure has not been determined, it should be under four years that’s for sure, it may be less,” he told the Doha-headquartered broadcaster.

The general elections held in January this year saw former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League sweep to power for the fourth time. However, the elections were boycotted by many opposition parties, including the main Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as these were not held under a caretaker government.

Then, in July this year, a student movement seeking equality in job reservations exploded into a mass uprising against what people called Hasina’s authoritarian style of governance. Hasina, who is seen as pro-India, was then ousted from power and she fled to India on August 5. President Mohammed Shahabuddin then dissolved the country’s parliament on August 6 and installed the new interim government headed by Nobel laureate Yunus on August 8.

The current interim government is extra-constitutional as the system was abolished under Hasina in 2011. However, earlier such constitutionally valid interim governments were mandated to hold fresh elections within three months after assuming power. That is why the statements made by Yunus regarding the holding of fresh parliamentary polls have drawn reactions from other stakeholders in the country’s political landscape.

Speaking during a programme at the National Press Club in Dhaka Monday, BNP general secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir voiced frustration over Yunus’s address to the nation Sunday. “…I am a bit disappointed,” the Dhaka Tribune quoted Fakhrul as saying. “I was hoping that the Chief Adviser, with all his wisdom, would identify the problems and give an outline for the election.”

According to Fakhrul, elections can solve half of the country’s problems, regardless of whether the BNP comes to power or not. He further said that those who want to harm and destabilise Bangladesh and lead the country into conflict will be forced to back down if an elected government is formed with the mandate of the people.

During his address to the nation, Yunus had alleged that leaders of the deposed Awami League government were seeking to destabilise the administration and trying to return to power “with their ill-gotten wealth”.

However, Fakhrul said that those who want to harm and destabilise Bangladesh and lead the country into conflict would be forced to back down if an elected government is formed with the mandate of the people.

“We do not just want reforms, we have initiated them and we will do them,” the Dhaka Tribune report quoted him as saying. “We request you to move forward with a people-accepted approach. We have not created any obstacles so far; rather, we are supporting you in every case.”

So, what is Yunus implying by making such cryptic comments about when fresh parliamentary elections will be held? According to Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, what the BNP is saying is a reflection of a consensus among political circles in that country. “Yunus is procrastinating in holding elections,” Chakravarty told ETV Bharat. “All this is being done to ensure that the Awami League does not come back to power.”

He pointed out the fact that, since the ouster of Hasina, Islamist groups like the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) have become very active in the social and political landscape of Bangladesh.

So, what does it mean for India in terms of stability in the immediate neighbourhood? “India will have a difficult time (in the near future),” Chakravarty said. “We will have problems with the Islamists.”

At the same time, he stressed that India has enough leverage to contain Bangladesh if the Islamist elements run riot in the eastern neighbour. According to Bangladeshi academic and political observer Sharin Shajahan Naomi, currently, the law and order situation in Bangladesh is not conducive for holding elections.

“It will take some time to stabilise,” Naomi told ETV Bharat over the phone from Dhaka. She also explained that the current interim government is unlike previous such governments. “Earlier, caretaker governments used to take charge after the end of a political regime to hold fresh elections,” Naomi said. “But this time, elections were held and a newly elected government was ousted from power. As such, this is an interim government and not a caretaker government. That way, this government can stay on for four years.”

She, however, said that pressure is mounting on the Yunus administration to hold elections. “For a long time, the interim government did not talk about any timeline for holding elections,” Naomi said. “But now they have started talking though the timelines are varying. They are now talking about going up to four years.”

She also explained that the students who had sparked the uprising that saw the ouster of Hasina are still very angry as many of their demands have not been met. “Though many people in Bangladesh want elections, the students want reforms before polls are held,” she said.

As far as India-Bangladesh relations are concerned, Naomi said that Dhaka cannot afford to have adverse ties with New Delhi. “The relationship will become functional once emotions evaporate,” she said. At the same time, Naomi also expressed the apprehension that Islamist forces like the JeI and the HeI might come into play if elections are held after a long interval.

In such a case, the BNP may or may not come to power. Who knows? Even student groups might enter the election fray,” she said. The political flux in Bangladesh has also raised the question of security in India’s northeastern region given that the eastern neighbour was used as a haven by insurgent groups during regimes prior to Hasina’s.

However, Chakravarty allayed such fears saying that the Bangladesh army is a stabilising factor and political stakeholders will be more busy with domestic issues. “The Bangladesh army is not anti-India,” he said.

Chakravarty also pointed out the fact that India has limited the issuance of visas in Bangladesh to only emergency cases. “That itself is a huge pressure point,” he said. It is in light of all this that New Delhi can only take a wait-and-watch approach as of now when it comes to ties with Bangladesh.