BJP's Rekha Gupta was sworn in as the Delhi Chief Minister at the Ramlila Maidan in New Delhi on Thursday. The suspense was over. The results have been declared and in Delhi it is BJP in, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) out. On February 8, as Delhi’s decision unfolded across 70 Assembly constituencies, it became amply clear that the day was not Arvind Kejriwal’s. The broom (read AAP’s symbol), which Kejriwal deftly used to keep the BJP at bay since 2013 had fallen apart, stick by stick. Delhi had turned saffron after 27 years.
Interestingly, the political map of India also changed colours by the end of February 8. One glance at the country’s political hues of all federal states leaves a casual eye with only one colour, that of saffron. It takes pains to find specs of a different shade and even if one locates them, they are mainly concentrated in the southern part of the country where Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telangana are the ones ruled by non-BJP parties. Following south is the east, where West Bengal and Jharkhand have different shades leaving only Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab in the north where the BJP or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is still an elusive political force.
And herein comes the catch as West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala from this list will go to polls in 2026 and undoubtedly the BJP will pull up its socks in their effort to paint them saffron.
For Kerala and Tamil Nadu, things are a bit different for the saffron party as it has a minuscule presence in both states. Since the formation of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala and its coming to power in 1980 with EK Nayanar at the helm of affairs, it has been a swing-song of sorts for the LDF and the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front). Coalition governments are nothing new to Kerala and have been in vogue since the 1960s, but it has always been the UDF or the LDF. There was never any BJP or for that case, the NDA, in God’s Own Country.
The CPI(M) dominated LDF has been successful in putting an end to Kerala’s swing-song politics in 2016 and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has set a record of sorts by leading an incumbent government of the state, which was re-elected for the first time in nearly 40 years. In a state which has hardly ever seen any steady footprint of the BJP, fancying a saffron hue can be a far-fetched idea.
Across Kerala’s shared borders, things are a bit less diabolical for the BJP when it comes to climbing the stairs of Chennai’s Fort St. George. Politics has always been colourful in the coastal state of Tamil Nadu - be it during the Congress era or the post-Dravidian politics period dominated by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) followed by the DMK split and entry of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). From K Kamaraj, the Congress stalwart, to leaders like Periyar EV Ramaswamy or CN Annadurai who came to the forefront with Tamil nationalism as their mainstay and literally gave birth and redefined Dravidian politics, Tamil Nadu has seen it all.
The state has also had its fair share from tinsel town with Tamil superstar MG Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, becoming the chief minister after the DMK split with later on MGR’s wife VN Janaki Ramachandran and then J Jayalalithaa, also becoming chief ministers from the AIADMK camp.
On the other hand, M Karunanidhi, the vanguard of DMK since the days of Periyar and Anndurai had his share of active politics at the helm of affairs in Tamil Nadu. Karunanidhi’s death resulted in the consolidation of the DMK behind MK Stalin, his son. Stalin stitched his Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) in the state and took on the AIADMK in the 2019 general elections and did a near whitewash for the DMK. The Stalin-era had arrived in Tamil Nadu and in 2021 when the Assembly elections came knocking, the SPA secured 159 seats out of 234 seats and formed the government.
Incidentally, the BJP has one common element, which also constitutes the basic flavour of Dravidian politics, that of nationalism. But, the anti-Hindi and Tamil nationalism actively practiced by the Dravidian parties for over sixty years, sweeps away the BJP from getting any foothold in the state as it is widely considered as a heartland party with no link whatsoever with Tamil sentiments. Hence, the prospects for BJP in 2026 are not good. Electoral math puts the Tamil Nadu political chessboard as, any split in the anti-DMK votes will simply increase Stalin and his coalition's chances of having the last laugh. The entry of Tamil superstar Vijay into politics and his newly founded Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) party pitting itself against the DMK can only mean, Stalin's laugh could only get broader.
All this leaves the BJP with its final option for 2026 - West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee and her politics has already catapulted the saffron party from being a non-entity in Bengal’s politics to the principal opposition in the state Assembly. BJP had first entered into the electoral foray of West Bengal in 1982 and could not win a single seat in the 294-seat Bengal Assembly till 2016. Only once in all these years of wilderness, the party managed a double digit vote share, which was in the 1991 elections. It was only in the 2016 polls when the BJP got into an alliance with the Hills party of Gorkha Janamukti Morcha, that it entered the hallowed corridors of Bengal Legislative Assembly. The party had won three seats.
The Assembly polls were followed by the 2019 general elections and the Modi-Shah duo made it a point to give Mamata a run for her money. BJP, by then had engineered several defections from the Trinamool Congress and the deft manoeuvring of then state party president Dilip Ghosh and turncoat Mukul Roy resulted in a spectacular show when the party got 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. With a staggering vote share of around 40.25 per cent, the favourite coinage of 2019 Bengal was ‘Bam vote Rame’ (the Left’s vote is now with the BJP). The CPI(M) led Left Front was severely cornered and Mamata’s kitty was lightened.
What the BJP never gauged was, a cornered Mamata Banerjee is both dangerous and wily. So, when the 2021 Assembly elections came calling, Mamata knew exactly how to punch a pin in the buoyed saffron chest.
Going by the simple arithmetic of 18 Lok Sabha seats, BJP had a fair chance in about 126 Assembly seats. By the time the elections happened, the BJP-led central government had passed the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and was hoping to benefit from the huge immigrant population of Bengal that first stood steadfastly with the Left and later switched to the Trinamool Congress.
But, Mamata had other plans and came up with the Laxmir Bhandar masterstroke, a scheme promising direct cash benefits to women. The COVID-19-period uncertainty, the lack of trust after the CAA was passed and the NRC narrative, all played a combined role and BJP's dream run from the general elections abruptly halted at 77 seats. No doubt it was quite a show from going to 77 from a humble 3 seat-strength, yet it was just a few drops in the sea. Mamata drew the rules of the game in 2021 and the voters lived up to her ‘Khela Hobe’ slogan, which at times even overshadowed TMC’s official tagline of ‘Ma-Mati-Manush’.
The 2024 general elections were no exception. The decline of BJP in Bengal has been steady since 2019 and from their 18-seat tally, the party ended with only 12 seats. The Sandeshkhali incidents or the CAA coming into effect had no effect on the Trinamool Congress. Mamata upped her Lok Sabha tally from 22 in 2019 to 29 in 2024, bagging a 46 per cent of vote share in comparison to BJP’s 38 per cent.
This is where Stalin and Mamata will start their 2026 campaign. For Stalin in Tamil Nadu, the more fragmented the opposition, the better. Ditto for Mamata Banerjee. She has already made it crystal clear that her party will go alone in the 2026 Assembly elections. That means TMC will be contesting against a cluster of opposition entities - the BJP, the Congress, the Left Front entities, the Hill parties and so on.
Of all, BJP should know best after tasting goods in the Delhi elections while successfully tackling a fragmented opposition of the AAP and the Congress. Their secret ambition of painting the country wholesome saffron by 2026, could remain in the realms of their dreams.
