Analysis | Delhi Elections: AAP May Emerge As Single Largest Party Followed By BJP And Congress

The 2025 Delhi election is a fierce contest between AAP, BJP, and Congress, shaped by legal battles, governance conflicts, and shifting voter preferences.

New Delhi: Except perhaps Bombay, and not Mumbai, no other city in the country holds as much of a sway over the public imagination as much as Delhi.

This is the reason why the assembly elections to what is known as the half-state of Delhi are keenly contested and equally keenly watched. The 2025 edition of the state elections is more so as Delhi’s politics has taken the kind of convulsions that had no precedents. It has had the bizarre distinction of the Chief Minister as well as other ministers from AAP going to jail.

It also had the state government and the centre contesting with each other to ascertain the power of the state. On February 5, all the main parties, BJP, Aam Admi Party (AAP) and the Congress will try to win back Delhi. For the first time in long years, it will be a keenly contested poll with AAP, Congress as well as BJP pulling out all stops to win a majority. By the look of it, AAP is ahead by a margin and it could be Arvind Kejriwal who could win again.

Nearly every city, town, big or small, across the country and its neighbourhood, has named areas – residential, commercial, and or even political – after those found in the national capital. To satiate the upwardly mobile, ambitious appetites of the regional elite, politicians, bureaucrats, city planners and builders have borrowed the names of some of Delhi’s most sought-after pin codes – Vasant Vihar, Green Park and even Panchshseel.

This marks a change from the early days of post-independence when the cultural hegemony of Delhi was exported to other parts through Jama Masjid and Chandni Chowk, as many of them would spring up in small-town India.

But now, this change as evinced by the names that inspire ambition, reflects the political, and ideological proclivities of those in power, and the rulers of the capital. If they were to accept the validity, historicity and national importance of places like Chandni Chowk, or roads named after Mughal Emperors, then these again would gain importance across the country.

Besides the Jama Masjid and Chandni Chowk of old, in post-independent India, names of colonies like Vasant Vihar, and Green Park (but this is in London also) routinely pop up in other parts of the country.

Visibly aspirational, the desire of regional politicians and bureaucrats to rechristen their areas after those that are in the capital city has yet another dimension. The names of these colonies reflect the political and ideological proclivities of the rulers of capital.

If they accept the past then places like Chandni Chowk or roads named after the Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb would be readily embraced. If the politics of the country changes, as it has in Delhi in this past decade, then names from a past that is considered offensive by the present government, go away.

Due to the importance of the capital and how the message from here goes far, the elections to the Delhi assembly enjoy an importance that far exceeds the status of other half states as it does not have police powers and is still controlled by a nominee of the central government- the lieutenant governor.

Delhi has a population of 33 million and a voter base of 15.6 million- that’s very huge. More importantly, it has people living here who belong to different parts of the country. For instance, Karol Bagh is where Tamilians mostly reside; Chittaranjan Park has a preponderant population from East and West Bengal whereas East Delhi has people largely from Uttarakhand.

The capital’s population includes the floating population of migrants who live here, but vote elsewhere. However, they have a stake in the capital remaining inclusive and magnanimous. They are also purveyors of information about the capital that they pass on to their brethren in other parts of the country.

If the Delhi elections are indeed a total of the entire country, then why do the people of the capital have a voting preference distinct for Lok Sabha and Assembly? Why is a party good for the Delhi state and not for the national election? Wouldn’t that allow the people of Delhi a louder and more coherent voice in the parliament? Would it not protect AAP, for instance, better in parliament and outside?

This is an important point as the AAP, for the better part of its term has been tormented by machinations of the BJP. The big question is why does it have the support for the AAP in the state assembly and not the parliament? Ever since it came into existence, the BJP has been winning all the parliamentary seats and the party led by Arvind Kejriwal is snagging most of the seats in the Delhi assembly.

It is an unchanging script and is likely to repeat itself on February 5 too! The belief is that the AAP will emerge as the single largest party followed by BJP and the Congress.

AAP, however, may not get the votes of the past when it would get in excess of 50 per cent support and Congress would get a piddly 4 per cent. BJP will get some 30-odd percentage. This time around, both, Congress and BJP are showing greater resolve to win the elections. BJP is trying to prove that those who vote for the party in parliament elections will stand by them.

Congress is targeting the Muslims and Dalits, two constituents that supported the party in the parliament elections. The endeavour of the Congress party is to somehow retrieve their traditional support in Delhi. Though it seems unlikely, AAP with all the freebies and the fact that it is not visibly partisan towards any community is proving to be attractive for the minorities and the economically challenged working class.

The question that is being asked is why the Congress, willingly got out of the India alliance that fought the 2024 elections together with other non-BJP parties and now chose to step out of it. Sources in the Congress party claim that they have figured out the real reason for the humiliating losses in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

In all these states, Congress lost by a whisker and the party that walked away with the bulk of the votes that would have gone to the Congress party- gravitated to the AAP. “We cannot afford it,” claimed a senior leader. This time around the Congress is trying to wean away Muslims and Dalits and hoping that Rahul Gandhi’s strong campaign would lead dividends in their favour.

This is not going to be easy, as the AAP has successfully won on the plank of a bouquet of freebies that AAP has been giving. Both BJP and Congress have promised to continue with them.

There is a strong view that the BJP and its mother ship, RSS, would not be averse to AAP winning these tightly contested polls even if it means transferring its votes to the local party. Its main concern is to stop Congress from gaining a foothold in Delhi. They remember that the Congress party came apart when it lost Delhi and a win for the grand old party could be the beginning of change.

Interestingly, no party is really articulating how they will improve the lives of the people of Delhi except by giving lots of freebies. Congress has talked about growing air pollution, but nothing about how they will get back the good air people of Delhi have lost.

Arvind Kejriwal’s dramatic allegation that Haryana was poisoning Delhi water has got the Election Commission scurrying for explanations from the AAP supremo, but there is no plan for how the quality of water could be made better. The truth is that the political class loves pollution as it allows them to endlessly make money as it has no short-term or quick cure.

(Disclaimer:The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)

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