The AAP’s broom swept all of its welfare schemes into the recycle bin. The Delhi assembly election results made the AAP a minor party and prevented Congress again from making any mark in the legislative map of the national capital. Although the Congress was unable to win a single seat, they were able to cut into the votes of the AAP by dividing the anti-BJP votes and so reduced the AAP's vote share.
It materialised the defeat of the AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal by pitting Sandeep Dikshit, its strong face and the former chief minister’s son. Kejriwal’s two main lieutenants, Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain, also lost because of the divisive politics between the AAP and the Congress. Many such seats going to the BJP with a small margin was inevitable given the statements Congress’ top leadership made at the fag end of the election campaign.
Apart from eating into each other's pie, there are other factors that helped the BJP against the AAP. The aggressive development campaign that the BJP promised to implement if elected to power. A contained polarisation narrative and more anti-AAP rhetoric also contributed to Kejriwal's voter base in a muddle. The voters were already confused in many constituencies about who to support between the Congress and the AAP. BJP became a natural choice among the perplexed voter base. Because the slogan and the manifestos were based on development, Muslims seem to have shown no hesitation in voting for the BJP, this time, except in areas where they had a better choice.
Mustafabad is a classic example of how choices between two favourite candidates helped the BJP steal the show. This constituency has a Muslim population of 50-55 per cent where AIMIM played a spoilsport for AAP by pitting Mohd Tahir Hussain against another Muslim candidate of AAP Adeel Ahmad Khan. Tahir got 33,474 votes and the AAP got 67,638 votes while the BJP’s Mohan Singh Bisht won the seat by a margin of 17,578.
There are several such seats where the winning margin between the BJP and the AAP is low or less than what another anti-BJP contender secured. In several constituencies, some voters seem to have seen Congress as an alternate choice against the AAP considering them another anti-BJP camp, favoured the BJP. The Timarpur seat went to the BJP with a margin of 1,657 votes while the Congress candidate got 6,101 votes.
In Mehrauli, the BJP candidate Gajender Singh Yadav got 35,893 votes and defeated the AAP candidate Mahender Chaudhary by a margin of 426 votes. The Congress candidate Pushpa Singh in the same constituency got 6,762 votes while the AAP got 35,467 votes. Sangam Vihar is another seat where both the Congress, the AAP and the BJP won a good number of votes but the seat went to the BJP candidate Chandan Kumar Chowdhary with a small margin of 344 votes. Trilokpuri seat is an example of how the BJP candidate Ravi Kant won by a small margin of 392 votes when the AAP candidate got 57,825 votes and the Congress nominee secured 6,147 votes.
There are constituencies where voters did not show much deviation while making choices amid a lot of confusing matrices. One such seat was Seelampur which has a Muslim population of 50-55 per cent and the seat went to the AAP. Of the 13 candidates, 10 were Muslims and could not divide votes.
Also, welfare schemes that worked well for the AAP in the last three consecutive elections have seen the BJP manifesto as a better alternative. It got registered more after the BJP ran a strong campaign through its star campaigners that portrayed Kejriwal’s welfare claims as an eyewash. Prime Minister Narendra Modi tore into the claim of better education, going face to face with the school students of Delhi. Union Budget presented on the first day of Feberuary was a masterstroke. The date of polls was fixed four days after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gave a smile from the treasury bench and announced a cent per cent tax break to salaried individuals for up to Rs 12.75 lakhs.
Listening to what Kejriwal and his ilks say in the election rallies and preparing counter-narratives to tear them apart was what the BJP consistently did. The Vikaspuri garbage issue which was raised by the BJP also worked well for them. Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini drank water from Yamuna to belie Kejriwal's allegation. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath challenged Kejriwal to take a dip in Yamuna like how people take a holy dip in Maha Kumbh.
The party with its 40 star campaigners encircled AAP and defeated them badly to form the government in the Delhi national capital after 27 years with a thumping majority. Last, but not least, the massive display of PM Modi's Maha Kumbh holy dip on election day, which was played on TV news channels all day, persuaded many to vote for the BJP. The BJP had through their rallies and campaigns made Kejriwal’s image before the Delhi voters as a polemicist, bluffer, conceited, and high and mighty. Leaving staunch anti-BJP voters thinking between Congress and the AAP, Kejriwal himself could not sail through and alighted halfway.
Now the question is whether AAP can survive with Kejriwal not making it to the Delhi Assembly and can the AAP survive the wreath of BJP MLAs inside the house during the discussion is what would be interesting to witness. The fun and frolic that was there in the AAP camp till election day ran down to their knees on the day exit polls were made public. It will be interesting to see how AAP strategises to resume its energy and keep the party afloat against such a formidable power.
