Hyderabad: In the last assembly elections, BJP in Karnataka ran short of eight seats, which otherwise would have allowed them to form the government without having to wait for another year. The party had to launch, as usual, 'Operation Lotus' in 2019 to influence MLAs of other parties to reach the magic number required to form the government.
BJP won 104 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections and needed 113 out of a total number of seats 224 to form the government. In the Karnataka hung assembly, JD (S) emerged as a kingmaker. Therefore, it supported the Congress to form the government under the Chief Ministership of HD Kumaraswamy, a popular Vokkaliga leader. After a year, the government was overthrown, and a BJP-led government was formed, led by Lingayat Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa. But, the Chief Minister was replaced by another leader Basavraj Bommai, who was chosen by Yediyurappa, because he is also a Lingayat.
Bommai, the incumbent Chief Minister from the Lingayat community, is holding his fort for the BJP in Karnataka. Lingayats form 17 per cent of the total electorate in the state, while Vokkaliga makes up 12 per cent. The opposition party JD (S) has its base in the Vokkaliga community, from where Kumaraswamy comes, but the party is also attempting to get some traction among Lingayats. With their historic base in south Karnataka, locally called Old Mysore, Kumarswamy could manage a sizeable gathering in a recent rally, which he did in north Karnataka, a region with a strong Lingayat base. The BJP earlier had a strong Lingayat face, who has now retired, and the party is fighting this time without a face. Instead, PM Modi himself is a face for the party and looks like he will ask for the vote in the same way he did in his home state, Gujarat.
Also read: Karnataka Elections 2023: Voting on May 10, Counting on May 13 - 10 points
The BJP believes that this time the temple bells of Lingayat and Vokkaliga Mutts will ring for them, particularly after the state gave them an additional reservation of two per cent. Some Vokkaliga leaders, who joined the BJP like Narayan Gouda, a former JD (S) from Mandya, will dent them for the BJP, the same way old timers like R Ashok, Ashwat Narayan, and Shobha Karandelaje will make their way for BJP in the community. Because there is no pre-poll alliance between Congress and JD (S), Congress leader DK Shivkumar, a Vokkaliga, will campaign against HD Kumaraswamy of JD (S) in addition to running against BJP Vokkaliga leaders.
The state is strategically important for the BJP because of its location in the south, as the state shares borders with all four southern states Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Though it shares a border with another two BJP-ruled states in the west, Maharashtra and Goa, but border dispute between the two states Maharashtra and Karnataka soured relations between the two BJP-ruled states.
The disputed district of Belgaum consists of 18 assembly constituencies having a mix of Maratha and Lingayat voters with 13 seats held by the BJP and five by the Congress. This region will be crucial for the Congress because the party will be able to settle scores with the BJP by competing against the rival BJP-ruled state of Maharashtra, which has allocated some schemes for the region in the recent budget. All of the state's heavyweights of BJP and Congress have been deployed to hold back the electoral forts in the disputed region. The recent assembly session, which was supposed to be held in Bengaluru, was held in Belgaum, establishing the party's writ in the region.
Also read: BJP will win over 150 seats, people of Karnataka with Modi: Dharmendra Pradhan
In the upcoming assembly elections, BJP is one of the key contests in the elections. Though the fight is triangular, given the last toppling of the Congress-JD (S) coalition government, HD Deve Gowda’s party will be aiming to have at least a number, which throws the state assembly into hung, making them a kingmaker party once again.
Karnataka is thought to be the epicentre of the BJP's general election campaign next year. This state paved the way for the BJP to sweep the Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka in 2019, winning 25 of the 28 seats and leaving one each for Congress, JD (S) and others. Karnataka is important for the BJP in many ways ahead of general elections scheduled next year as the state is seen as an entry for the Saffron party in the south. The perception that the party is only for Hindus of the Hindi belt was somewhat diluted in the last elections, but made no significant progress in the rest of the southern states of India.
Caste politics is what BJP will play out given their position on reservations they displayed in the state assembly recently. Culling the Muslim reservations and giving it to two major castes makes it clear that caste politics is what helps them win, because both the castes are decisive. Ignoring the protests of other caste groups clearly shows that the BJP has done its electoral maths well. The state government recently granted an additional two per cent reservation to each community, bringing Muslims into the EWS category, after taking away from them the reservation of four per cent that they were entitled to. How far is the arithmetic going to gain results for the BJP will be interesting to know in the coming weeks.
