New Delhi: Though a US-led multinational alliance launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure safety of the Red Sea shipping route to counter Houthi attacks on ships allegedly linked to Israel, differences within the allies have sparked speculations whether further escalation can be contained.
Last week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced the operation during a trip to West Asia in the course of which he met with leaders in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Israel.
“The Secretary emphasised the strong and enduring partnership between the United States and his key partner nations towards furthering our shared goals of security and stability throughout the Middle East region,” US Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a Pentagon media briefing on December 21.
Austin discussed the importance of freedom of navigation in international waterways and the threat the Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea pose to world commerce. Between 10 and 15 percent of global shipping flows through the Red Sea, “and these attacks are impacting global trade and commerce, negatively impacting the economies of nations around the world and costing commercial shipping firms billions of dollars”, Ryder said.
Operation Prosperity Guardian is a new multinational security operation under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of the Combined Task Force (CTF) 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea. CTF 153 is a US Navy-led initiative established on April 17, 2022, to “focus on international maritime security and capacity building efforts in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden”.
The Iran-aligned Houthis, based in Yemen, have been targeting ships carrying cargo for Israel passing through the Red Sea. The Houthi attacks with drones and missiles are a manifestation of the expansion of the Israel-Hamas war that has claimed over 20,000 lives so far, a majority of them civilians in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.
Following the announcement by Austin of the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, the Houthis said that they would not stop their attacks on ships having ties with Israel passing through the Red Sea to exact revenge for the war against Hamas.
Initially, the US-led alliance comprised 10 nations. However, with the pullout of Spain, the alliance now comprises nine nations – the US, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, and the Seychelles. Apart from Spain, two of the US’ NATO allies in Europe - France and Italy - have also not joined the alliance citing operational differences.
Spain’s defence ministry said it would participate only in NATO-led missions or EU-coordinated operations. France’s defence ministry said it supported efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and surrounding area but asserted that its ships would stay under French command. Italy’s defence ministry said it would send naval frigate Virginio Fasan to the Red Sea to protect its national interests in response to specific requests made by Italian ship owners. It said this was part of its existing operations and was not part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.
Meanwhile, China has said that it is not interested in joining the coalition. Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt have said that they would not like to be seen as engaging against another Arab nation, a position Washington seems to have understood.
As far as India is concerned, observers believe that New Delhi would prefer to wait and watch. The Indian Navy has reportedly been monitoring the regional security situation and is in touch with all stakeholders.
According to R Seshadri Vasan, currently the Director-General of Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S), India would prefer to stay out of Operation Prosperity Guardian as of now.
“The very fact that some of the NATO allies have decided to carry out their own independent patrols rather than being part of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian tells you the story,” Vasan was quoted as saying by Sputnik India. “Not everyone is keen to become part of this naval taskforce. The moment you become part of such a mission, you find out that there is also a cost to be borne.”
The Red Sea, linked to the Suez Canal, stands as one of the globe’s busiest maritime pathways, providing an alternative to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. This waterway is indispensable, playing a critical role in upholding the political and economic stability of numerous nations. Positioned strategically between Asia and Africa, the Red Sea serves as a significant conduit that separates the Middle East from the Far East and Europe from Asia.
The geopolitical significance of the Red Sea is underscored by its natural role as a border between the eastern coast of Africa and the western coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It functions as a crucial passage for the secure transportation of oil, extending from the Bab el-Mandeb in the south to the Suez Canal in the north. Given that oil remains a primary global energy source, this shipping lane retains its pivotal status as a fundamental channel for the transportation of oil from the Gulf.
In the face of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, commercial ships were compelled to take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope raising freight rates multiple times. However, one positive development came on December 23 when Danish shipping major Maersk announced that its vessels would resume transit through the Red Sea under Operation Prosperity Guardian escort. If safe passage can be provided to Maersk vessels, then it will encourage other container companies like MSC and CGN and petroleum giant BP to return to the shortest route.
So, can Operation Prosperity Guardian protect ships passing through the Red Sea from Houthi attacks?
According to R Dayakar, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq and Jordan who also served in the West Asia desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, the multinational agreement to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea against Houthi attacks will take some time to achieve operationalisation of joint patrols, demarcation of the sea zones among the participants for naval deployment and the rules of engagement.
“The reported differences among the participants are of passing nature given their political will to ensure unhindered and safe passage of commercial ships and uninterrupted supply chains through Red Sea on way to the Mediterranean and Europe through the Suez Canal and vice versa,” Dayakar told ETV Bharat.
However, he said, the current situation “reflects in a way the varying nature of challenges in confronting the spillover from the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and the support Hamas has received from non-state actors like the Houthis, Hezbollah, the Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Kata’ib Hezbollah who all claim to be targeting Israel but in reality impacting negatively if indirectly third country interests”.
“Houthi attacks forced major shipping companies to suspend voyages through Red Sea and to go for a detour round the Cape of Good Hope causing stiff freight hikes,” Dayakar said. “After the nine-country joint naval coalition was formed, some of them (shipping companies) seem to plan for a return to the Red Sea route. It remains to be seen how far the joint naval operations will address the risks from Houthi hostilities without further escalation.”
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