Hyderabad: In the mid-2019 general election, BJP polled 57 % votes in Delhi and won all 7 Lok Sabha seats. With just 18 % votes, AAP finished 3 rd in 5 seats. Assembly-segment-wise, BJP led in 65 seats of the total 70 seats, Congress in 5 and AAP 0!
Common wisdom says BJP should be confident for victory in the upcoming assembly election. But confidence is instead oozing from the AAP camp. BJP is struggling hard to counter the ruling AAP, as Congress is nowhere in the fight.
One big factor behind this reversal of the popular mood is AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal learning lessons from his mistake in the 2019 general election. He first acknowledged the paradoxical yet popular ‘Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM’ sentiments of a large section of Delhiites. Consequently, he has since then completely stopped attacking PM Modi. Till then, Kejriwal - desperate to earn the image of ‘the lone fighter against Modi’ - was directly taking on the PM on various national issues.
- To win over the positive, pro incumbency votes; AAP is also properly publicizing its achievements in the past 5 years.
- Allocating an unprecedented 35 % of its budget to education, AAP govt introduced edgy subjects such as happiness-index & entrepreneurship and reinvigorated teacher training.
- On the health front, AAP’s muhalla clinics have been a huge hit.
- Each muhalla clinic has a doctor, a pharmacist and a clinic assistant; catering to around 12,000 population within 1 km radius. So far, 400 muhalla clinics are operational in Delhi.
- With Delhi perceived as unsafe for women, AAP govt on 29 Oct introduced pink- pass for the female commuters; enabling them to travel free on marshal-guarded DTC buses. The beneficiary women feel safe, and also save an average of Rs 1,200 to 1,800 every month.
- Halving of the water-bill and free-electricity for consumption up to 200 units have also endeared the Aam Admi.
In effect, the Aam Admi of Delhi have developed a stake in the local governance; and vouch for AAP govt’s success in many spheres. A large section of middle-class people - who voted for Modi in 2019 general election - are back to supporting AAP this assembly election.
Benefited by such welfare schemes, the urban poor – who earlier voted for Congress – are also preferring AAP. “For the first time, the Unique Electoral Proposition in Delhi has moved to issues which are purely local like health, education & women-safety. Both Congress & BJP during their stint in power did little on these fronts; blaming to the limited resources & limited power with the Delhi govt. In contrast, AAP delivered with the same limited resources & limited power,” says an independent political analyst.
Read: Decoding Delhi Elections 2020
While pursuing the good governance agenda, AAP has also been able to strike a fair balance between the otherwise antagonistic ethical identities & economic classes. It is a favourite of the Purvanchali (migrants from UP & Bihar who earlier supported Congress) as well of the Punjabi-Jaat lobby which earlier supported BJP). As Kejriwal silently highlights his Vaishya lineage; his AAP is the favourite of the Vaishya community (who earlier supported BJP) as well as the Poor (who earlier supported Congress).
Another factor favouring AAP is the image of Arvind Kejriwal. Even as many of its founding members have quit of AAP, the image of Arvind Kejriwal is intact. As the face of the party, he remains the quintessential Aam Admi.
In public life for over 6 years, he has earned the paradoxical sobriquet of the non-political politician who does not need to wear khadi or fold his hand reverentially for seeking votes. His personality is the X-factor that sets him apart from all the Bigwigs in BJP & Congress.
To deny BJP from counter-polarizing on Hindutva line, AAP has consciously desisted from minority-appeasement steps. Going a step ahead, AAP has even resorted to soft-Hindutva. It has started a special scheme for sponsoring pilgrimage only for the Hindu elderlies. Delhi govt’s efforts for cleaning Yamuna river has been given religious overtones, describing the river as the favourite of Lord Krishna. Though AAP opposed CAB in Parliament, it voted in favour of the scrapping of Article 370.
Apart from its strengths, AAP is also helped by the weaknesses in the rival camps. To begin with, BJP and Congress are yet to name their CM candidates to counter Arvind Kejriwal. Factionalism remains the common woe of both BJP & Congress.
Sensing the dilemma in the faction-ridden rival camps, AAP is raising the question “Kejriwal versus who?”; much like the question, BJP had raised “Modi versus who?” in the general election.
BJP earlier planned to focus mainly on national issues including Article 370 scrapping, SC verdict for Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and CAA; hoping that they would lead to a degree of Hindu consolidation. However, the electoral failure of such issues in the recent Jharkhand has prompted BJP to instead focus on local issues.
The only issue which is signalling positively to a large section of voters is Modi govt’s new Act to grant ownership rights to residents living in 1,731 unauthorised colonies. “Some 40 lakh people will benefit,” says union minister for housing & urban development Hardeep Puri.
Delhi BJP president Manoj Tiwary has promised to make water & electricity cheaper by 5 times if his party is voted to power. BJP has also launched a campaign against AAP govt over the quality of drinking water in Delhi. However, none of the initiatives seems to be impressing the voters except for regularization of the unauthorized colonies.
Realizing that attacking Arvind Kejriwal will backfire, BJP has pinned its hope on Congress for cutting into the votes of AAP. Even as Delhi police implicated AAP MLA Amanatullah Khan for the violent protests in Jamia against the Citizenship Act, BJP president Amit Shah blamed Congress for supporting the “tukde tukde gang” in Delhi.
Yet, the Muslim voters are rallying behind AAP, discarding Congress as the wrong bet to defeat BJP. So are the 1%-strong Christian voters. The Sikhs however largely favour BJP, as it is an ally of Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab.
On other issues too, BJP is equally blaming Congress for the ills plaguing Delhi. “Congress would have cut into AAP votes if the Grand Old Party has remained united. But after the death of Sheila Dixit, Delhi Congress is a Divided House where each faction is determined to outsmart the other. But over and above, the people are intelligent enough to see the role of Congress only as a vote-cutter this state election,” said an analyst.
So, Congress polling 22.5% votes in the 2019 general election promise little hope to BJP, also because people vote differently in state election & national election.
