Old faces but new leadership in the battle for Fort St George in TN

Battling anti-incumbency, the ruling AIADMK which has been in power for two consecutive terms, is fighting hard to retain power while the principal opposition DMK, is making a determined bid to dislodge the former. It is a do or die battle for both the dominant Dravidian parties and hence a crucial one for the future political trajectory of the state known for pursuing the path of social justice, writes MC Rajan, Bureau Chief, Chennai, ETV Bharat.

Chennai: Elevated from obscurity to the office of Chief Minister by circumstances following the death of J Jayalalithaa, incumbent EPS has completed four years in office and is the face of the ruling AIADMK. Despite his larger than life image makeover as a 'leader,' being aided by a continuing advertisement blitzkrieg, for him, the Assembly elections will be an acid test. He faces a formidable challenge from a resurgent DMK which is organisationally strong and is aided by the strong anti-incumbency.

This election is significant and crucial not because of the absence of the charismatic leaders, DMK patriarch Muthuvel Karunanidhi and AIADMK prima donna Jayalalithaa. It is important since the BJP has been employing every trick in the book to expand its footprint by turning the AIADMK into its handmaiden. For the saffron party, wedded to Hindutva, it has been very difficult to win even a single seat on its own as its vote share has not gone beyond a meagre 2%. Yet, its ambition has no bounds and its prime focus is either to prevent the DMK from coming to power or weaken it.

In the calculation of the saffron brigade, its growth lies in the dilution of the ideology and disintegration of the Dravidian parties.

Prime Actors

There are four principal players besides the BJP in this election. The first is DMK president MK Stalin, who narrowly missed the opportunity to become CM when the party lost out to the AIADMK. The difference of vote share between the AIADMK and the DMK was a mere 1.1% in 2016 assembly poll. However, under his leadership, the DMK and its allies nearly swept the 2019 LS poll and pocketed 38 of the 39 seats in the state with the DMK registering an increased vote share of 52.39 while that of the AIADMK plummeted to 31.26%. it was a reversal of fortunes and the AIADMK had to remain content with one seat.

Besides Stalin (67), the other two who have set their sight - incumbent EPS (66) and versatile actor and Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) founder Kamal Hassan (66), have one thing in common. They are all sexagenarians and well past their prime. And all the three are already on the campaign trail.

“Triumphant Tamil Nadu” is the slogan of the AIADMK with EPS being the mascot. Being in power at the time of elections is an advantage to the AIADMK and the party is using it to the hilt. For the DMK, it is 'Stalin Towards a New Dawn'. And Hassan keeps the 'Anti-Corruption' plank, taking on both the Dravidian majors. Since the MNM which has secured around 5% votes in the LS Poll, it remains to be seen whether the actor would play spoilsport in this election.

Interestingly, matinee icon Rajinikanth, on whom the BJP was pinning its hope, had opted out of the race even before taking the political plunge, leaving the saffron camp distraught. The actor, who called for “changing the system” had to bow down due to health concerns.

However, the release of the jailbird, VK Sasikala, the confidant of Jayalalithaa, is expected to change the dynamics of the AIADMK and its electoral fortunes. After four years of incarceration in a Disproportionate Wealth case in which Jayalalithaa was the first accused, she stepped out of the Bengaluru prison and landed Tamil Nadu creating unease in the AIADMK. Though many might be inclined to dismiss her of no consequence, it is to be noted that she is a political personality who wielded immense power as the force behind Jayalalithaa. Whether she is granted re-entry into the AIADMK or not, she had announced to play an important role in the elections. Many in the state BJP have openly advocated a rapprochement between the AIADMK and Sasikala so as to strengthen the AIADMK. Opposition to her comes only from the Chief Minister and a handful of ministers while others prefer to play it safe.

The State

Politics and elections in Tamil Nadu are notorious for being highly monetised. From Sathankulam in 2003 from where Jayalalithaa had won and the Thirumangalam byelection in which the DMK romped home, bribing of voters has become a routine affair. The 2017 by-poll to RK Nagar after the demise of Jayalalithaa, won by Sasikala's nephew and general secretary of the AIADMK's splinter group AMMK, TTV Dhinakaran, was not free of the 'cash for vote' phenomena.

There are 234 seats to the state legislature with the Chennai Corporation area, excluding its periphery, accounting for 16 assembly segments. As of now, the following is the party-wise strength in the House: AIADMK: 123 + Speaker, DMK: 97, INC: 7, IUML: 1, Ind: 1 (TTV Dhinakaran) and Nominated: 1 (Anglo Indian).

While the state has total voters of 6.26 crore, women account for 3.18 crore. Further, there are 13.09 lakh first-time voters in the age group of 18-19 years. Together with those under 29-years of age, young voters are more than 1.23 crore. As such, youth power will be a deciding factor this time around.

Alliance

All said and done, alliance holds the key to victory in Tamil Nadu elections. While the DMK head the Secular combine comprising the Congress, CPI(M), CPI, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) a Dalit party, MDMK of Vaiko, IUML and others, the AIADMK heads the NDA, comprising the BJP, OBC Vanniyar-dominant PMK, DMDK of actor Vijayakanth, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) of GK Vasan.

Alliance with the BJP continues to be a millstone around the AIADMK's neck. Many leaders in the AIADMK were opposed to the tie-up with the saffron party seen as communal with north Indian tag. Further, the apprehension is that the party might lose its support among the minorities because of this alliance. In nearly 110 constituencies, minorities could till the scale. However, since the AIADMK government had survived thus far with the blessings of the BJP, it is difficult to disentangle at this time. On the other hand, the DMK alliance has been a tried and tested one in the last LS elections.

Of all the parties, the DMK has the advantage of a battery of fiery orators for the poll campaign. Besides Vaiko and Thirumavalavan of VCK, the DMK has former Union Minister A Raja, Kanimozhi, Trichy Siva among others. Without the oratory and rhetoric in the campaign, any election would lose its sheen in this Dravidian heartland. This one too would not be a disappointment on that score.