OBC votes crucial in deciding TN poll outcome

As Tamil Nadu gears up for the Lok Sabha elections, the Vanniyar community is expected to tilt the margins in the northern parts of the state. The OBC stronghold is expected to scatter votes between the two major Dravidian parties- DMK and AIADMK.

Chennai: Dominant OBC communities in Tamil Nadu, who constitute about 70 per cent of the population, will decide the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Tamil Nadu with Vanniyars in the north, Thevars in the south, playing a key role.

The people belonging to various OBC communities are influential in many spheres due to their large population and they can make or break the fortunes of any political outfit.

The Vanniyar community with several sub-sections in different places, constitute about 20 per cent of the population and they are the dominant community in north Tamil Nadu. In the south and east, Mukkalathors form a large section of the population and their vote share will range from 20 to 30 per cent in Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Madurai, Sivaganga, Dindigul, Theni, Ramanathapuram and Tirunelveli districts.

Vanniyars, with sub-sections like Naickers, Gounders and Padaiyachis, are densely populated in ten northern districts. Even though the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is called the party of Vanniyars, it secures only a quarter of the Vanniyar votes, while the others are scattered between the two major parties the AIADMK, DMK and the newly formed DMDK led by actor Vijaykanth.

Most of the Vanniyars were strongly supporting the DMK till the Vanniyar Association was converted into a political party in 1989. When the AIADMK under MGR lost 68 of the 91 municipalities to the DMK in the local bodies election conducted in 1987, one of the reasons attributed for the failure of the AIADMK was the strong support provided to the DMK by the Vanniyars.

This prompted MGR, who was aided by senior party leader Panrutti S Ramachandran, to help the formation of a Vanniyar party, to weaken the DMK's hold on the community. Panrutti Ramachandran, who himself belongs to the Vanniyar community, was instrumental in the creation of the PMK, which had held on to a large chunk of the Vanniyar votes till date.

With the PMK allying with the AIADMK, the ruling party hopes that a sizeable section of the Vanniyars support them in north Tamil Nadu, especially in the by-polls to the eight of the 18 seats in the region. However, the DMK will try its best to retain the Vanniyars who were supporting the party for many decades.

The DMK and AIADMK almost shared the votes of Mukkulathors, till the death of MGR. But, after Jayalalithaa took over as the party's general secretary, the community's votes had started swinging towards the AIADMK. The AIADMK leader's close friend Sasikala Natarajan belongs to the community and the party has many Mukkulathor leaders from the top to the ward level. This time, Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran too is expected to reap the community votes in a big way in the south and delta districts.

The DMK had not lagged behind in rewarding the leaders of the community with ministerial berths in the Central as well as the State government. However, the party is not expected to obtain as much support from the community as the AIADMK does.

The DMK will try its best to compensate the losses in the south, by securing more votes from another influential community of traders and business, the Nadars. The Nadars have a soft corner for the DMK and its ally the Congress too, has notable influence among the community. Another OBC group, the Yadavas are present in large numbers in a few pockets, with their votes scattered between the two major Dravidian parties.