Colombo (Sri Lanka): In the eyes of some political commentators, Sri Lanka's current dispensation exudes "a strong sense of masculinity." For the war-weary Indian Ocean island nation, this "strongman politics" continues to hold appeal, albeit mostly to the ethno-religious majority of Sinhala Buddhists. For the two Rajapaksa brothers who lead the Sri Lanka People's Front (SLPP) as president and interim prime minister, this translates into cult appeal - an election winning formula they will cash on, come August 5, when Sri Lanka elects its new parliament.
The government is keen to project this 'strong' image yet again, and presents itself as the only South Asian nation to bring the COVID-19 situation under control with one of the lowest rates of pandemic-related deaths – 11 – and to be able to hold a nationwide parliamentary election when parts of the world still remain under lockdown.
"This is the true test of political leadership," Wimal Weerawansa, an SLPP candidate from the island's commercial capital, the Colombo District, was heard saying at a recent public meeting. It is a public sentiment that Rajapaksas have done well to nurture and retain.
On August 5, some 70 political parties, 313 independent groups and 7,452 candidates will be in the fray.
There are other "credentials" the SLPP has pushed during the campaign trail: The powerful Rajapaksa siblings are considered national heroes who ended the island's protracted war against the Liberation Tigers Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ushering in a sense of normalcy, introduced large-scale infrastructure projects to the island (through heavy Chinese borrowing), debunked the myth that national electoral success relies on the ability to muster minority votes, and not the least, a leadership that has brought the COVID-19 health emergency under control.
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Even though such credentials hold significant electoral appeal, there are discordant notes being struck on the platform between Sri Lanka's two most powerful political siblings, the hawkish president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his elder brother and two-time president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Beyond their collective requirement of securing parliamentary power, and Rajapaksas are known for putting up united fronts that in itself a charm to the average voter, the reasons appear quite different. But this does not get explained to the electorate that only gets to see the power combo.
Two thirds majority
For one, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa calls for a two thirds majority in the House to overhaul the 19th Amendment to the Constitution introduced by the reformist regime of 2015 of president Maithripala Sirisena and premier Ranil Wickemesinghe.
The incumbent president wishes to restore the previous status quo when the president enjoyed unfettered executive powers under the 1978 Constitution. The 19th Amendment in contrast, reduced executive powers, enhanced prime ministerial powers and paved the way for depoliticization of key public institutions through the setting up of independent commissions. And this structure is anathema to a president who has vowed to create "a virtuous society founded on self-discipline," and in this process, has infused military men into the public service, placing several of them in key public positions.
For Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, this election is all about the non-reversal. The 19th Amendment has created a powerful prime minister and brought in more checks and balances between the executive and legislative arms, unlike the near ceremonial position in the past. His own personal popularity and the need to have control over public finance combined is likely to make the seasoned Rajapaksa pitch differently to the electorate, post polls, and to navigate the parliament towards his objective. But for now, it is a case of winning the forthcoming election.
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Though a two third majority is far-fetched, for Mahinda Rajapaksa's good luck, the August 5 elections is decidedly a one horse race where the SLPP is poised to pip the vote. The ruling dispensation is bound to comfortably win, and there are contributory factors that boost this chance, such as the projected strong leadership, information control, a well-established propaganda machine and quiet militarization of public institutions, the latter considered a method of injecting much needed discipline and efficiency into the Sri Lankan society. Rajapaksa, the main candidate at the parliamentary elections finds his biggest boon in the form of a deeply divided opposition - a single party split into two and dividing the opposition vote.
Then there is sizeable public trust among the Sinhala-Buddhist majority, despite a legacy of rights violations and a history of strong-arm tactics. In contrast, the main opposition finds two factions, the old United National Party (UNP) led by former prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and a breakaway group led by former UNP housing minister Sajith Premadasa, with latter's electoral gains more pronounced.
Yet, analysts say that all these factors combined will ensure a Rajapaksa victory but not one that brings the SLPP the coveted two thirds majority, but a comfortable working majority.
Neighborhood relations
Then there is every reason to believe, despite the different political needs of the brothers, Mahinda Rajapaksa would steer the country further into China's orbit of influence, particularly as the country seeks to recover from the COVID-19 economic impact.
Among the many countries that are keenly watching August 5 polls are the United States, and the two regional super powers, China and India. The Indian Ocean island straddles one off the busiest shipping routes in the world and the current administration leans heavily towards China, having extensively borrowed for large scale infrastructure development projects under China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), many of them in Rajapaksas' native Hambantota, in the island's deep south.
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Though unable to compete against China's deep pockets, India is extremely vary of the increasing influence of China in the neighboring island, which has remained, until Rajapaksa's ascendency, a country with a pro-Western foreign policy, which was also not to India's liking.
In early July, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa made a public statement that there was no final decision on the joint development of Colombo Port's East Container Terminal (ECT) under a 2019 tripartite agreement among Sri Lanka, Japan and India. With trade unions shouting themselves hoarse against "selling national assets" to India, the administration has set its eyes squarely on securing a strong parliamentary majority, driving senior Rajapaksa to appease the public, albeit temporarily.
However, under the Memorandum of Cooperation, Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) was to hold 100% ownership of the facility. In addition, there is also a request for $ 960 million debt from Colombo together with a currency swap under bilateral and SAARC instruments, all of which New Delhi has chosen to hold.
The polls will serve as a powerful indicator not just of Sri Lanka's future political direction, and the buildup of executive power and the possible death of the stalled process of transitional justice, but one in which Sri Lanka will draw perilously closer to China, giving rise to new tensions between the geostrategic island nation and the neighboring giant, India.
Indo-Lanka relations have never been easy, and had seen many fluctuations. However, the cornerstone had always been, that India's regional security concerns outweighed all other matters. Delhi's responses continue to reflect the fear of China's growing influence in the island, primarily a threat to Indian trade expansion. While paying lies service to bilateral relations with India, Mahinda Rajapaksa has since 2005, openly consorted with China. He is likely to repeat this with more vigor as the new government is required to build an economy devastated by the recent pandemic, and India might have to accept the crumbs that fall, in order to retain some foothold in the geopolitically strategic Indian Ocean Island that shows all signs of further leaning towards Beijing after August 5.
(Dilrukshi Handunnetti is a Colombo-based political commentator, investigative journalist and lawyer)
