New Delhi: Without doubt the international order is getting consolidated into two distinct camps—one led by Russia and China, and the other by the United States. Relatively successful at maintaining what it terms as ‘strategic autonomy’, India may not be able to sit on the fence anymore.
Traditionally close to India, Russia has been cozying up to Pakistan of late, much to India’s chagrin. Recent media reports that Russia may have set roadblocks to having India on the Afghanistan peace dialogue have added more grist to the rumour mills.
In a damage-control mode, Russia put out a statement on Tuesday, saying India will have “eventual deeper involvement in dedicated dialogue formats” for furthering peace in Afghanistan. But here, the operative and loaded word in the statement is “eventual”, which negates India’s participation in the immediate context.
And Russia walked the talk with its foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stating on Tuesday that Moscow will indeed host talks on March 18 where foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will kick-start the process.
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Zakharova said: “It is true that a regular meeting on the intra-Afghan settlement is scheduled to take pace in Moscow on March 18 at the level of special representatives of Russia, China, the United States and Pakistan.”
“We expect the meeting to be attended also by delegations of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation, prominent Afghan political figures, the Taliban Movement and Qatar as a guest of honour.
In other words, India has been kept out. Period.
It is also a signal on India staring at a strategic dilemma. It has to choose between the Russia-China-led bloc and the US-led one.
In fact there are many reasons for Russia seeking to have India out of the Afghan dialogue process.
First, the India-US relationship is at a new high. The formation of the ‘Quad’ comprising India, US, Australia and Japan, is to spearhead safeguard US and western interests in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region, against rising Chinese power and its growing spheres of influence. The Biden presidency’s antagonism against Russia has bonded a deeper relationship between Russia and China. For Russia, including India at the Afghan high table would mean increasing US stakes.
Second, Russia-China relations are riding a definite high. With India and China having witnessed military escalation after a border row in eastern Ladakh spiraled out of control, the bilateral relationship has been an uneasy one. As a result, India and China have contrarian positions on many issues. Russia would not want India on the Afghan table lest it ruffles China.
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Third, Russia is desperate to wrestle out a bigger share for itself in the Afghan peace process as well as in the post-agreement development of Afghanistan. Why would it reduce its own possible share by increasing US stakes at the round table by India’s inclusion?
Fourth, the US and Russia had conflicting interests, and therefore opposing positions in West Asia (Middle East). India’s position was that of explicit support for the then Donald Trump government’s West Asia narrative. In the process, there was a falling out in India-Iran ties which traditionally had been fairly warm and close.
Fifth, Russia considers Afghanistan as its own backyard, of key strategic importance and also as a ‘Gateway to West Asia’. Including India in the Afghan talks would favour a tilt for the US interests besides also upsetting Pakistan which is quite hawkish on Afghanistan.
In all this, the Joe Biden-led US administration is having its way. It had pursued efforts for a clear demarcation between India and Russia. Its ‘wedge’ has worked and how.
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