Hyderabad: India’s northeastern region (NER) covering eight states (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura) have given birth to several armed insurgencies leading to indiscriminate violence and instability. Undeniably, the NER is witnessing a marked decline in insurgency related incidents and the security situation has improved to a large extent since 2014.
According to the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Annual Report (2022-2023), the security situation in NER has improved substantially since 2014 and states namely Mizoram, Sikkim and Tripura have remained peaceful. Between 2004 and 2014, 11,121 violent incidents were recorded, which fell by 73 per cent to 3,033 between 2014 and 2023.
The Indian government has been following an intermingled policy of negotiations along with counter-insurgency operations by the Army, central armed police forces and the state police. It has been pursuing a policy of dialogue with insurgent groups which renounce violence and look for peaceful solution for their problem within the framework of the Indian constitution.
Accordingly, a number of insurgent groups have come forward for talks with Indian government and have entered into peaceful settlements. Since 2014, the Indian government has signed 9 peace and border related agreements with different states in the NER.
These have established peace in large part of the NER and most importantly the recent tripartite signing of Memorandum of Settlement between the Centre, state government and the United Liberation Front of Assam ULFA (Rajkhowa-led ULFA faction) on 29 December, 2023 and signing of peace agreement between United National Liberation Front (UNLF), government of Manipur and government of India on November 29, 2023 mark the end of prolonged armed movements.
Notably, the agreement with UNLF is remarkable because for the first time a valley-based Manipuri armed group has agreed to turn away from the violence by ending the six-decade long armed movement and agreeing to respect the laws and constitution of India.
Despite the peace pacts, there are a number of impediments for peace in the NER. The hardline factions of insurgent groups decided to continue its rebellion against India. Assam is expected to continue facing insurgency as the ULFA (Paresh Baruah faction) is not a part of the peace accord with the demand for a sovereign Assam.
The group continues to use territories of Myanmar as its hideouts to continue the armed struggle. In case of Bodo and Karbi groups, although there is accord, still these groups are carrying on their claims for a separate state of Bodoland as well as an autonomous state for the Karbis under Article 244A of the constitution (which allows for the creation of an ‘autonomous state’ within Assam in certain tribal areas). It is apparent from this volatile scenario that possibility of violent movement in Assam cannot be ruled out.
Though the insurgency related incidents in the NER was the lowest in last two decades, the situation in Nagaland is still a concern. India signed a peace agreement with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland NSCN (IM) on August 1, 1997, but a final solution to end the 70 years of Naga insurgency has been difficult to track down.
There is a stalemate between the government of India and NSCN (IM) over the demand for a separate flag and constitution for the Nagas. The Naga National Political Groups (NNPG), a forum of seven Naga insurgent groups is not insisting on the demand, but the NSCN (IM) refused to sign the final agreement without recognition of the Naga flag and the constitution.
