Hyderabad: India’s northeastern region (NER) covering eight states (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura) have given birth to several armed insurgencies leading to indiscriminate violence and instability. Undeniably, the NER is witnessing a marked decline in insurgency related incidents and the security situation has improved to a large extent since 2014.
According to the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Annual Report (2022-2023), the security situation in NER has improved substantially since 2014 and states namely Mizoram, Sikkim and Tripura have remained peaceful. Between 2004 and 2014, 11,121 violent incidents were recorded, which fell by 73 per cent to 3,033 between 2014 and 2023.
The Indian government has been following an intermingled policy of negotiations along with counter-insurgency operations by the Army, central armed police forces and the state police. It has been pursuing a policy of dialogue with insurgent groups which renounce violence and look for peaceful solution for their problem within the framework of the Indian constitution.
Accordingly, a number of insurgent groups have come forward for talks with Indian government and have entered into peaceful settlements. Since 2014, the Indian government has signed 9 peace and border related agreements with different states in the NER.
These have established peace in large part of the NER and most importantly the recent tripartite signing of Memorandum of Settlement between the Centre, state government and the United Liberation Front of Assam ULFA (Rajkhowa-led ULFA faction) on 29 December, 2023 and signing of peace agreement between United National Liberation Front (UNLF), government of Manipur and government of India on November 29, 2023 mark the end of prolonged armed movements.
Notably, the agreement with UNLF is remarkable because for the first time a valley-based Manipuri armed group has agreed to turn away from the violence by ending the six-decade long armed movement and agreeing to respect the laws and constitution of India.
Despite the peace pacts, there are a number of impediments for peace in the NER. The hardline factions of insurgent groups decided to continue its rebellion against India. Assam is expected to continue facing insurgency as the ULFA (Paresh Baruah faction) is not a part of the peace accord with the demand for a sovereign Assam.
The group continues to use territories of Myanmar as its hideouts to continue the armed struggle. In case of Bodo and Karbi groups, although there is accord, still these groups are carrying on their claims for a separate state of Bodoland as well as an autonomous state for the Karbis under Article 244A of the constitution (which allows for the creation of an ‘autonomous state’ within Assam in certain tribal areas). It is apparent from this volatile scenario that possibility of violent movement in Assam cannot be ruled out.
Though the insurgency related incidents in the NER was the lowest in last two decades, the situation in Nagaland is still a concern. India signed a peace agreement with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland NSCN (IM) on August 1, 1997, but a final solution to end the 70 years of Naga insurgency has been difficult to track down.
There is a stalemate between the government of India and NSCN (IM) over the demand for a separate flag and constitution for the Nagas. The Naga National Political Groups (NNPG), a forum of seven Naga insurgent groups is not insisting on the demand, but the NSCN (IM) refused to sign the final agreement without recognition of the Naga flag and the constitution.
Peace and stability of the NER is crucial and significant for India in two aspects. Firstly, the Siliguri Corridor (Chicken’ s Neck) in West Bengal, with a width of 21 to 40 km, connects the NER with mainland India. The insurgent groups take the advantage of the “Chicken’s Neck” and carry out their insurgent movements in these states. The Siliguri Corridor's proximity to China, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh further adds to its geostrategic significance.
Secondly, it is the gateway to Southeast Asia because of its 5,484 km of international border with China, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal.
Earlier, many of the insurgent outfits in NER had their safe havens in Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Several of their top leaders operated from there and a number of training camps were established there. The situation began changing in 2003 when Bhutan launched a military offensive ‘Operation All Clear’ to dismantle the camps and training centres of militant outfits active in Bhutan.
Since 2009, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came into power severe measures against militants began in Bangladesh resulting in the capture of top rebel leaders Anup Chetia and Arabinda Rajkhowa, who were later handed over to India. In 2019, Indian army and Myanmar army carried out joint operations, ‘Sunrise’ and ‘Sunrise II’, targeting several NER militant groups and eradicated their camps.
However, in recent years, the China factor has amplified India and Myanmar’s intentions to cooperate against the NER insurgencies. China continues to use the NER insurgencies by regrouping of these outfits. China has even sheltered Paresh Baruah of ULFA and is also supplying arms to his group.
The NER a strategic geographical location situated between India and Southeast Asia over the Bay of Bengal, has emerged as a precinct of promoting development and economic opportunities with international cooperation. In 2014, India launched the Act East Policy to strengthen economic ties with ASEAN and other East Asian countries. In 2017, the governments of Japan and India launched the Act East Forum to engage in close discussions and emphasise efforts towards the development of the NER.
A new initiative was launched in March 2023 by Japan under the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), which aims for stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. The tripartite collaboration between India-Japan-Australia explores ideas for enhancing connectivity links between the NER and the Indo-Pacific region.
Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) can also play an important role in the smooth progress of these connections, in particular with countries sharing borders with the NER.
The NER is not only important for India’s Act East Policy but can also provide a momentum for intensifying the extent of India’s partnerships with both the western and the eastern states. In view of which, the Indian government has decided to address the insurgent challenges of the NER with a comprehensive approach incorporating negotiations and implementation of peace accords along with promoting development and economic opportunities in the region through the convergence of Act East policy and Japan’s FOIP vision.
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