New Delhi: Hectic diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine and the NATO member states, Russia and the European countries, and the U.S, are underway for the past few weeks to avert the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict but the question that has risen is will they be able to ensure de-escalation as there are strategic and economic interests involved.
However, as the war of words between Biden and Putin continues and with no concrete solutions coming out following the talks between the negotiators to resolve the Ukraine crisis, the world is staring at a tense situation that could turn into a war with far-reaching consequences.
Meanwhile, amid tension between Russia-Ukraine reaching its peak, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has arrived in Kyiv today as the Biden administration has voiced concerns of a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen at any moment.
When being asked if a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent and what implications it would have, former ambassador Anil Trigunayat, who has served in the Indian Missions in Cote d’Ivoire, Bangladesh, Mongolia, USA, Russia, Sweden, Nigeria, Libya, and Jordan said, “the whole episode of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is the ‘geopolitical contestation’ between Russia and the West (US), which considers Russia as a geostrategic rival. Unfortunately, the Ukrainians in the process are stuck between the two."
He also said that it doesn’t seem like there will be full escalation because that will be bad for Russia overall, but at the same time, a way has to be found through which the Soviet concerns of Russia are addressed, the sovereignty of Ukraine is preserved and some kind of diplomatic adjustment is found.
“This is being hyped up a lot by the statements that are coming from Washington DC and other countries in the West. I don’t see any reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine because the most important area in Ukraine from its strategic perspective was Crimea, which Russia already has and they are not going to give it back. But at the same time, Russia also does not want that its security is compromised. Therefore, it does have heavy security concerns," he explained.
Trigunayat opined that even at the moment there will be no invasion by Russia but at the same time, he maintained that war can happen because the kind of hype that has been created and the understanding that was reached between Russia-Ukraine in 1997 have been violated over time because the eastward expansion of Nato has continued at pace. “Diplomacy is the only way out”, he reiterated.
Trigunayat who has worked in the Economic, West Asia, and North Africa and Consular Divisions in the MEA also said that "there is a de-escalation after every war, no wars continue forever".
“I hope that there is no war in the first place but it looks like both sides are arriving at some kind of a ‘modus Vivendi', but what it will be difficult to say at this stage. Today as we talk, I don’t think the war is imminent”, he added.
Implications if Russia invades Ukraine
Talking about the implications, the expert said that certainly, the possible Russian invasion of Ukraine will directly impact the well-being of the Europeans as they are worried Kremlin will cut off the gas supply. It is pertinent to note that many countries in Europe are dependent on Russia for imports of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, oil. Among them are Germany, Europe's largest economy, a key ally of the United States, and a historically important participant in negotiations about Ukraine.
Also Read:US: Over 130,000 Russian troops now staged outside Ukraine
Meanwhile, as the fear of war has engulfed the whole world, several nations have already asked their nationals in Ukraine to return at the earliest. Even after that, India has chosen to remain silent on the developing Ukraine situation. There are at least 20,000 Indian students in Ukraine.
However, according to sources, the Embassy of India in Kyiv has reached out to the Indian nationals for getting them registered for evacuation in case a conflict flares up between Russia and Ukraine. The Ministry of External Affairs is yet to issue an official statement on the same.
Commenting on the development, Trigunayat reiterated that India is very clear in its position that it will not like war to escalate. “It is expected that India will be able to become a 'conduit for diplomacy' between the US and Russia”, he underlined.
On Saturday, US President Biden has warned Russia of severe costs if it invades Ukraine. He reiterated that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing. However, Moscow continues to repeatedly deny claims of imminent attack but at the same time has continued to intensify troop build-up along the eastern European borders, thus sparking fear of war.
