New Delhi: A new tracker by Cambridge Judge Business School forecasts that the number of new Covid cases in India will surge in a few days. However, the intense growth phase will be relatively short.
Mumbai reported 2,510 new cases today and one death. Delhi reported 496 new covid cases and has been put on "yellow alert" as per the Graded Response Action Plan.
The number of Omicron cases in India reached 781 on Wednesday with the national capital topping the chart with 238 cases.
The tracker said that there is substantial variation among States and Union Territories in their trajectories.
Cases will continue to increase over the next two weeks in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Odisha, Puducherry, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Tripura.
A new CJBS COVID-19 Tracker for India, developed by Cambridge Judge Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in India working with Health Systems Transformation Platform in India, provides forecasts of the pandemic's trajectory based on a recently developed model.
These forecasts are based on a structural time series model that uses historical data in estimation, but adapts to the trend emerging in the most recent period. The model is described in a paper in Harvard Data Science Review by Andrew Harvey, Emeritus Professor of Econometrics at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge, and Paul Kattuman, Reader in Economics at Cambridge Judge Business School, entitled "Time series models based on growth curves with applications to forecasting coronavirus".
The forecast, however, highlights that Covid cases will see a declining trend in the two-week forecast period to 23 May.
(With agency inputs)
Also read: Omicron risk remains 'very high', says WHO
