IMD predicts normal rainfall in August-September

Rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of 2021, i.e. August to September period, southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department informed, on Monday. It is expected to be 95 to 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal.

New Delhi: Rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of 2021, i.e. August to September period, southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department informed, on Monday. It is expected to be 95 to 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal. IMD predicted the LPA of the August to September period rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 428.3 mm.

"Below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northwest, east and northeast parts of the country. Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely to experience over most parts of peninsular India and adjacent central India," said Director General of IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while addressing a virtual press conference.

Speaking over the Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) conditions, he said that the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ENSO conditions. However, the SSTs over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is showing a cooling tendency. He said, "The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models suggest that ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season and increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina conditions at the end of the monsoon season or thereafter."

He informed that in addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs also influence on Indian monsoon. Currently, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

As per the prediction, the current activity of Intense wet spell over Central & adjoining North-West India (West MP and East Rajasthan) is likely to continue till 4th Aug. While reduced rainfall activity is expected over Peninsular India and adjoining East-Central India (Maharashtra and Gujarat) state likely during next 4-5 days. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Madhya Pradesh during 2nd- 6th August. Isolated extremely heavy rainfalls are also very likely over West Madhya Pradesh on 2nd and 3rd August 2021 with a reduction from 4th August.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely falls over East Rajasthan on 3rd August with a reduction from 4th August. Scattered rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over West Rajasthan during 2nd – 4th August. IMD had issued the first stage forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country on 16th April and the first update for the forecast on 1st June 2021. IMD had also issued the monthly forecast outlook for June rainfall over the country along with the updated forecast on 1st June and that for the July rainfall on 1st July 2021. However, average rainfall in July ended about 7 per cent below normal.