Hyderabad: For BJP to win big in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is very important to win Uttar Pradesh. If BJP loses the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh in 2022, then the countdown for the Modi government at the Centre will start as well. Politically , if it is defeated in UP, an atmosphere will start building against the BJP in the country. Since 2019, BJP has been out of power in five states.
If its number of MLAs decreases after the assembly elections, then the BJP will find it difficult in the election of the President. At present, the BJP has its own or coalition governments in 16 states of the country. It has a total of 1,432 MLAs in the country's legislative assemblies. BJP has 325 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh. In the presidential election, the value of one vote of an MLA of UP is the highest in comparison to MLAs of other states of the country. The value of vote of an MLA of UP is 208. Ramnath Kovind, who was BJP's candidate in the last election, got 83,824 votes from UP. But he got 800 votes from Goa and only 224 votes from Sikkim. Apart from this, BJP's seats in Rajya Sabha will be affected.
Before the last assembly elections, veteran leaders of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party and (SP) Congress had joined BJP. Apart from this, thousands of people were associated with BJP at the assembly level. In the Modi wave, The BJP gave these leaders the chance to come to power. If BJP loses the elections in Uttar Pradesh, then there may be a turmoil in the party. But, even before this, the new generals of the BJP will face challenges in ticket distribution stage itself.
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There is an ongoing rift within the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya is frequently making statements that after the elections only the central leadership of the party will decide who will be the chief minister. Given this, the party faces the challenge of openly declaring Yogi Adityanath as its chief ministerial candidate in the 2022 assembly elections. In 13 districts of UP, the Maurya-Shakya-Saini and Kushwaha castes have about seven to 10 percent voters. If leaders like Keshav Maurya get caught in factionalism, then the BJP may have to bear the brunt of it. It is believed that Dharmendra Pradhan has not played any role in Uttar Pradesh before. As such, he can solve these problems by being impartial.
There are 79 OBC castes in Uttar Pradesh. According to estimates, the largest vote bank in UP belongs to the backward classes (OBC). Of the state's total voters, 52 percent belong to OBC castes. Of these, 43 percent of the vote bank is from the non-Yadav community. The OBC category has been associated with the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Among them, non-Yadav OBCs have a large representation. In the last two years, Rajbhar, Nishad and Yadav castes have moved away from the BJP. The contribution of these castes was behind the huge majority the BJP got in 2017. Samajwadi Party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party are also trying hard for their vote bank. It will not be easy for the BJP to woo them.
After the Modi wave of 2014, Dalit voters also voted in favour of the BJP. It is believed that a part of the Jatav community also got along with the saffron party. Dalits comprise 22 percent of the voters in Uttar Pradesh. Of them, 12 percent are Jatavs. Jatav voters are now completely with Mayawati. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Jatav voters again returned to the BSP. BJP will need 100 percent votes of the remaining eight percent non-Jatav Dalits like Balmiki, Khatik, Pasi and . to come back to power in Uttar Pradesh. Arjun Ram Meghwal has been included in Dharmendra Pradhan's team to garner Dalit votes. But it is not easy in the current situation.
In Uttar Pradesh politics, the Brahmin class comprises about 10 percent of the vote. This figure of Brahmins also includes 1.5 percent Bhumihar and 1 percent Kayastha vote. Similarly, the number of Thakur voters is considered to be 7 percent. According to the population, these voters are less than Dalits and OBCs, but they are effective in influencing voters. The upper caste voters can become the reason for the defeat of BJP due to the Brahmin Sammelan of BSP and Parshuram Sammelan of Samajwadi Party. BSP and Samajwadi Party have representatives of upper castes, who become strong ministers in case of government formation. If Saroj Pandey, Anurag Thakur and Vivek Thakur, the co-in-charges of Dharmendra Pradhan's team, will be able to unite the upper caste voters of UP, only then will there be victory in the assembly elections.
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After the farmers' agitation and the results of the recent panchayat elections, it has emerged that the BJP was losing ground in western Uttar Pradesh. It is believed that the farmers of the Jat community are mainly behind the agitation. In 71 assembly seats in 14 districts, Jats and Muslims are generally considered to be the deciding voters. BJP does not get Muslim votes. And now discontent within the Jats can overwhelm the party. Captain Abhimanyu is a leader of the Jats, but it will be a challenge for him to preserve the Jat vote in Uttar Pradesh.
In the 2022 assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi's party All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will contest in 100 seats. This time Owaisi has tied up with Omprakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). In the 2017 assembly elections too, AIMIM had contested in 38 seats. The party did not get a single seat. AIMIM got 0.2 percent or a total of 205,232 votes in the entire state. Its average was 5,400 votes per seat. The AIMIM-SBSP alliance called Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha may not win seats in double digits, but if it takes away votes at the same rate as in the last elections, then more than 100 BJP candidates will be seen biting the dust. Rajbhar, who was involved in the Bhagidari Morcha, was with the BJP in the last elections while the AIMIM had taken away the SP's vote share. But that will not be the case this time. The votes that Sankalp Morcha will get will come from the BJP itself.
According to sources, BJP may deny tickets to 30 percent of the seating MLAs in the next assembly elections. The party leadership has already examined the performance of these MLAs. That's why some MLAs also met Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and dkiscussed about their prospects of getting tickest. Yogi has assured them that they will gettickets again. Apart from this, other factions of the party are also mobilising regarding tickets. But it is sure that tickets will be denied. Dharmendra Pradhan will then face the challenge of handling the rebellion within party's ranks.
If its new generals can overcome these challenges, then BJP can retain power in Uttar Pradesh and the party will rule again from Delhi in 2024.
