Patna: The death of Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) founder Ram Vilas Paswan has added a new twist to the state elections and will impact it in many ways. Passing away of one of the tallest Dalit leaders of Bihar has added an element of uncertainty to the already complicated poll matrix.
Political experts have predicted that Chirag Paswan, son of senior Paswan, can consolidate Dalit and sympathy votes following his father's demise.
Political watchers are of the view that death of one of the most prominent leaders will add an emotive issue to the state polls and will dent Janata Dal-United JD(U)'s vote bank directly. Since LJP has decided to go solo in the elections, senior Paswan's death may help his party to consolidate its core votes.
The emotive issue arising out of the death of the prominent Dalit leader and Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan can make or break many political equations in Bihar.
Chirag Paswan has severed his ties with NDA just before the Assembly polls in Bihar. At the same time, Chirag also made it clear that he would field candidates only against the nominees of the JDU. The demise of Paswan amid the electoral fight in the state can create a wave of sympathy among the people, which may upset political equations on many seats. It is being speculated that the JDU may suffer the most if it happens.
It must be noted that Dalit voters are a big factor in five districts of Bihar. After the demise of Ram Vilas Paswan, there is a wave of sympathy among the people in these districts in favour of Chirag Paswan. It is being felt that the LJP can benefit directly from this.
If we talk about in the context of the whole of Bihar, Dalit voters can decide the defeat or the victory of any party in a good number of seats. Dalit and Mahadalit voters account for around 16 per cent of the population in Bihar. The LJP did not support Nitish in the 2005 assembly elections. Left puzzled, Nitish Kumar played the 'Mahadalit' card. He declared 21 out of 22 Dalit castes as Mahadalits in which he did not include Paswan caste. It was a big move on Kumar's part to cut Paswan’s Dalit support base. Mahadalits are around 10 per cent of the State’s total population of Paswan is put to around 4.5 per cent.
The Mahadalit masterstroke of Nitish Kumar did not go in vain. Ram Vilas Paswan himself lost the 2009 Lok Sabha election. After this, Paswan joined the NDA in 2014 and Nitish Kumar walked out of the NDA. However, Nitish and Ram Vilas Paswan reconciled once again in 2018, after which the Paswan caste was also included in the category of Mahadalit.
With the death of Ram Vilas Paswan, there are five districts where the sympathy factor can work in the poll. The Mahadalits dominate Nalanda, Jamui, Samastipur, Vaishali and Khagaria. Apart from this, even the upper caste people of these areas do not dislike Paswan.
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Major Dalit dominated districts in Bihar are:
1.NALANDA: Nalanda is the home district of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. There are seven assembly seats in this Lok Sabha constituency. The population of Mahadalits in Nalanda is around 4.5 lakh. At present, the JDU has got six out of seven assembly seats, while Rajgir is a reserved seat. Chirag has decided to field his candidates in all these seats. In such a situation, Nitish Kumar’s game plan can get topsy-turvy.
2. JAMUI: Lok Sabha constituency is also a reserved seat. Chirag Paswan is an MP from here. There are six Vidhan Sabha constituencies in this Lok Sabha seat, of which four are in Jamui district. The JDU has two seats in Jamui district -- Jhajha and Chakai. But this time Chirag has fielded his candidates from both the seats. Ravindra Yadav has been given the ticket from Jhajha and Sanjay Kumar Mandal from Chakai. Apart from Dalit votes, Chirag has tried to eat into the votes of backward castes here. It is being said that the sympathy factor will work here, which can have a direct impact on the prospects of the JDU.
3. SAMASTIPUR: Samastipur, also a reserved Lok Sabha seat, has a good number of Mahadalit voters -- around three and a half lakh. Prince Raj, the nephew of Ram Vilas Paswan, is the Member of Parliament. There are six assembly seats in this Lok Sabha constituency. Kalyanpur and Rosda are reserved seats. Mahadalit votes in both these seats matter a lot. The last time Kalyanpur went to the JDU kitty. This time the LJP has announced to field candidates from here too. In such a situation, the loss to JDU seems to be certain. At the same time, Rosda has gone to the BJP from where the LJP has not fielded any candidate.
4. KHAGARIA: Khagaria, a Lok Sabha seat is also with the LJP. It is an important seat as Ram Vilas Paswan started his political career from Khagaria’s Alauli Assembly seat. For the first time, he became an MLA from this seat. There are around 4 lakh Dalit voters here. There are six assembly seats in this constituency -- Simri Bakhtiyarpur, Hasanpur, Alauli, Khagaria, Beldaur and Parbatta. Alauli is the reserved seat from where the JDU has fielded its candidate. The LJP has also decided to field its candidate from this seat. If the sympathy factor works here, then it will be a direct loss to the JDU.
5.HAJIPUR: Hajipur is the Lok Sabha seat from where Ram Vilas Paswan has himself contested elections several times. There are more than three and a half lakh Dalit voters in Hajipur. There are seven assembly seats in this parliamentary constituency -- Hajipur, Mahua, Rajapakar, Jandaha, Mahanar, Patepur and Raghopur. Rajapakar is a reserved seat, which has gone to the JDU as per the seat adjustment with the BJP. The LJP has decided to field its candidate from this seat. There is a possibility of loss to the JDU here as well as in other seats where Dalit voters are reckoning.
