Will ruling AIADMK return to power third time in a row

For nearly five decades the Dravidian majors –DMK and AIADMK remained in power after rooting out each other. The main battle in the elections was always between the two Dravidian majors. As the ruling party came to power second consecutive time the political pundits are discussing whether the AIADMK will return to power third time in a row and make history. One can get an answer if dwell deep on past poll results.

Chennai: While the present ruling dispensation of the government rose to power in 2016 with a vote percentage difference of 1.1 per cent when it romped to power for the second consecutive term since MGR era, the chances of the DMK and the anti-incumbency wave might as well help the DMK to sweep the ensuing Legislative Assembly Election this year if one were to by the way the Assembly Segments in the Parliamentary Elections.

In 2016, the then DMK chief and former Chief Minister late M Karunanidhi who reeled out this statistics on the election citing that the DMK combine was able to secure 1,71,75,374 against the AIADMK which polled 1,76,17,060 votes across 232 Assembly Constituencies, just as poll notifications were rescinded in two Assembly Constituencies – Thanjavur and Aravakurichi. This translated to the AIADMK winning 134 seats.

Is it possible for the ruling AIADMK to script history by coming back to power for the third consecutive time or the opposition party will be able to put spokes in their attempt in the ensuing general assembly poll.

For nearly five decades the Dravidian majors –DMK and AIADMK remained in power after rooting out each other. The main battle in the elections was always between the two Dravidian majors.

As the ruling party came to power second consecutive time the political pundits are discussing whether the AIADMK will return to power third time in a row and make history. One can get an answer if dwell deep on past poll results.

While the AIADMK faced a major setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the DMK and its allies cornered 38 of 39 LS seats and AIADMK won a single seat. The result sent a shock wave in the State since the ruling party used to win a majority of seats whenever Assembly or LS polls held in the State in the past.

The ruling AIADMK had realized this fact very late and soon it pulled up its socks and started exerting its power. Subsequently, the AIADMK leaders had taken a vow to win the by-polls for Vikkiravandi and Nanguneri Assembly Constituencies in October 2019. And the party candidates won the by-elections.

As far as DMK is concerned, after the death of party founder leader Annadurai in 1969, DMK leader M Karunanidhi remained as CM for seven years till 1976. Matinee idol and his arch-rival MG Ramachandran formed AIADMK, after coming out from DMK, in 1977. MGR became CM and remained in the chair for ten long years till 1987. AIADMK was elected to rule the State twice. This was considered a record in history.

Between 1984 and 2011, each of the Dravidian majors came to power one after another by aligning with a few parties. After 2011, political scenarios have changed. The AIADMK won 2011 and 2016 General Assembly poll and formed the government twice. The party equalled the record set by its founder leader MGR. The political pundits have considered this as a turning point.

The DMK had failed to get opposition party status after the 2011 poll. However, it formed a formidable alliance in 2016 and missed forming a government by a whisker. It lost the AIADMK by a slender margin.

Following the death of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa in 2016, cracks developed in the party. Just when Jaya’s aide VK Sasikala was elected as General Secretary of the party unanimously, she was convicted and detained in prison in connection with a disproportionate asset case. Following this, TTV Dhinakaran, O Panneerselvam and Edapadi K Palanisamy had sailed in different boats. After EPS and OPS joined hands together the party remained in power till 2021 and set to complete the term.

Talking to ETV Bharat, P Ramajayam, a political commentator, said, “The ruling AIADMK will not return to power for the third time in a row. The current political situation is totally different from situation existed about three decades ago”. The DMK had introduced a number of welfare and developmental schemes from 1969 to 1977. As a result of the negative campaign, the DMK lost power. AIADMK remained in power from 1977 to 1987. Now the AIADMK is in a sticky wicket since it has alliance with BJP.