New Delhi: US President Donald Trump will be in New Delhi and Ahmedabad on his maiden India visit on February 24-25.
The stage is being set for a major 'Howdy Modi' like event in the Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel stadium some, 13 kilometres away from Ahmedabad. The visit comes just days after Trump’s acquittal in the US Senate following his impeachment trial.
Former Ambassador to US Arun Singh believes this visit will be important for Trump to flex his domestic muscle on the international stage in the election year.
Senior journalist Smita Sharma spoke to Arun Singh on the state of the bilateral ties, possibility of a limited trade agreement, the issue of Kashmir and CAA-NRC protests in US Congress among others.
The excerpts:
Q-How do you see the timing of Trump’s visit to India before the Presidential polls in 2020?
Ans: Any visit by a US President generates a lot of excitement. The visit is still around ten days away but already there is buzz in media and people are talking about it. It shows that there is a certain value to the relationship going beyond the formal strategic and political.That is because of people to people dimension. There are more than 4 million Indian-Americans, 200,000 Indian students in US today, large number of Indians go to the US looking at job opportunities there or job opportunities linking India and US. At a popular level, there is a lot of anticipation invested in this relationship. Given all that, I think the visit is important because at the high level it is useful to maintain regular bilateral intersections through visits to each others’ countries, and not just on the margins of multilateral meetings. Since Clinton every US President has visited India. Obama visited twice and his first visit was in his first term. If you look at Clinton, his visit was towards the end of his second term. George Bush also came towards the end of his second term. From that perspective, it is important that Trump is coming at the end of his first term. It is a signal of the personal value he attaches to the bilateral relationship, not just for India-US but for the Trump brand and for the Trump political interest.
Q- Keeping in mind that Trump has just come out of the impeachment proceedings, is this visit an opportunity for him to take forward the domestic victory message onto the international stage?
Ans: Absolutely. Domestically he has been acquitted by the US Senate formally on February 5. On February 4, he gave his State of the Union address which went down very well with his base. He also used that speech to do an outreach with the African-American community, Hispanic community. Now he needs to signal that it is not just domestically but internationally also that he receives this kind of a welcome. Today, there are very few countries in the world where he would receive a welcome like this.
Q-Where to quote him as millions and millions of Indians would line up to welcome him?
Ans: That is right. Indians will come out to welcome him on the streets, gather at the huge stadium in Ahmedabad. He would also be politically welcomed in Delhi. In many other countries there are concerns about statements he has made about alliances, about allies not doing enough. They have concerns about some of the policies in Syria, related to Afghanistan. For him to be able to signal that bilaterally, he is achieving a lot. When he was welcoming the President of Ecuador a few days ago, he made it a point of saying that the visit showed he was able to make a lot of progress in bilateral relations. So, coming to India and being welcomed in a certain way will help him.
Q- PM Modi lays a lot of stress on optics. But on substance will we see a trade agreement being announced?
Ans: Optics are very important in international relations. They are used to signal. But substance is obviously very important. Optics can only take you up to a point. It is clear that both sides are looking to finalise some agreements on defence cooperation, that could signal regarding depth being attached to the relationship. Signal regarding how much confidence each has in partnership with the other. Because we do not buy from another country unless we are confident. Going beyond defence is the trade and economic relationship. I saw the recent comment of Indian Ambassador to US that the trade now stands at 160 billion USD. That means, it is significantly growing every year and US is largest trading partner for India. India is a trade deficit country overall but we have a trade surplus with US. For us that is very important. But there are issues. Since September we have been hearing that we are about to finalise a limited trade agreement. We are in February now and that has not yet happened which is a reflection of the fact that there are interests involving both sides. Sometimes it is not easy to work out a compromise but a determined effort is being made. One would hope that something can work out because that would be a good signal in terms of optics even if it is a limited agreement.
Q- Will it be disappointing if a trade agreement is not announced? Will it be something to worry about?
Ans: I do not think it is something to worry about. It is not easy. There are interests and concerns on both sides. They need to do more work. The limited agreement would be good for optics but it is more to enable President Trump to sell back home that he has done trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, with South Korea, with China and India. To show to his base that he has done different kinds of trade agreements will also work for the US workers. I think from the Indian perspective if you are looking at deepening the relationship with the US, which is important, we have to look at newer areas not just the existing areas of trade and investments. For example, Indian representatives have said that let us look at the energy partnership or oils and gas where we are now buying from the US which we did not do earlier. Let us look at civil aviation because India will be buying more and more planes. Large number of them will come from the US. So, all that will address the trade deficit issues which we have. Going beyond that, there is a perfect storm coming in terms of technology. We will have 5G, AI, quantum computing, digital technologies of new kinds, convergence between biology and IT etc. The way we live, the way we do our work is going to transform completely. For India and the US, it would be important to create new partnerships to transform the relationship.
Q- The issues like data localisation also remains an issue of concern between both countries. What's your take on this?
Ans: They are being debated globally. New technologies have emerged and have posed challenges for societies all over. They throw challenges for regulators all over. It is not just the India and US. Look at Europe. They had concerns related to privacy. France has imposed taxes on digital companies that the US is not happy about. Recent reports indicate that the US is concerned about the way China hacked data of 150 million Americans from a company. They have sanctioned four Chinese individuals who they say belong to the PLA. So, issues related to data, location of data, relationship with business and individuals, relationship between government, business and individuals - all these are being debated at a global level. New technologies throw new challenges for societies and regulators, we have to work through it.
Q- We have seen controversial remarks on Kashmir made by President Trump. Four senators have written to Secretary of State seeking limiting of internet communication restrictions in Kashmir, release of detained political leaders and also flagged the CAA-NRC protests. How is this issue going to play out in terms of bilateral relations?
Ans: One is the dimension related to President Trump, other is related to what is happening US Congress. President Trump has been seen, in past three years of his administration, as unpredictable, erratic and at times went beyond the norms of current US diplomacy and foreign policy. I was shocked when he was meeting the PM of Pakistan, Imran Khan, in July last year. He then said that he is ready to mediate on Kashmir and that the Indian PM had asked him to mediate. I was shocked because not that I am in government but for years that I handled US and Pakistan and I can say with confidence that no Indian PM would have ever thought of asking a US President to intervene. So, obviously he was saying something on his own and the Indian Foreign Ministry came out with a string denial. After that he has not really said that he is ready to mediate but he is willing to be helpful if both sides are ready. President Trump’s compulsion right now is that he wants to keep Pakistan cooperating with US in context of what they are trying to do in Afghanistan, in trying to get the peace process going with Taliban for some kind of deal. In September, after he had attended the huge Howdy-Modi event in Houston with PM Modi, he met Imran Khan in New York where he was asked about what Pakistan is doing on terrorism? President Trump deflected that by saying that he is focused on Iran because he wants to get something going. They understand clearly that Pakistan has been involved with non state actors, with terrorist groups. They understand clearly that India will not allow any third party mediation in Kashmir. So, we say that keep Pakistan engaged in someway. As far as US Congress is concerned, the Congress works very differently from the administration. They feel like a co-equal branch of government. There is a resolution being filed in US Congress on Kashmir largely with support of Democrats, not because they are anti-India or anti US relationship but they have their own position of being critical of restrictions in Kashmir on issues related to CAA and NRC. What these senators have done is the part of that. They have their own politics to show that on these issues they have a critical position. From India’s perspective India has to do what works for it. India has engaged with the administration. India also has to outreach to Congress. One of the things that has been important for the relationship, specially since 2000, is that there has been bipartisan support both among Democrats and Republicans. The only other country which had this kind of bipartisan support earlier was Israel. Right now, the relations between Democrats and Republicans is very adversarial and they see relations between US President and PM Modi. So, they have become very critical on certain aspects of the Indian government positions. It is very important for India to be mindful to maintain that outreach and to work out this relationship.
Q- What played out during 'Howdy Modi' with Republicans spinning it as an Indian endorsement of Trump in the re-election bid, now with 'Kemcho Trump' happening few months ahead of US Polls, will it risk the bipartisan support that India enjoys in the Congress?
Ans: India has to invest in the US President whoever that person is. India invested strongly in President Clinton. India invested strongly in President Bush. You may recall that the then Indian PM had met with President Bush in September 2008 during the end of his tenure and said that ‘people of India deeply love you’ at a time when Bush was extremely unpopular in the US and globally. India had engaged very deeply with President Obama when sections of the US Congress were very adversarial to him. You have to engage but while doing that you have to be mindful of the fact that the US Congress is a co-equal of the government and different from other forms of systems. When the US President is visiting India you have to show that he is welcomed. You are not welcoming a person or a part. You are welcoming the President of the United States.
Also Read: India, US attempting to finalise key defence deals ahead of Trump's visit
