New Delhi: "China would own our country if Joe Biden got elected. Unlike Biden, I will hold them fully accountable for the tragedy that they caused, all over the world, they caused," said President Donald Trump in his official re-nomination speech at the Republican National Convention.
“We will make sure our companies and jobs stay in our country as I’ve already been doing for quite some time if you’ve noticed. Joe Biden’s agenda is “Made in China.” My agenda is ‘Made in the USA’,” Trump further added targeting his Presidential opponent and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Biden as young Senator was part of the first official delegation that visited Beijing post recognition of diplomatic ties between the United States and China in 1979. As Vice President during the Obama years, he shared the then prevalent sentiments that ‘a rising China is a positive, positive development’. While there was no mention of China, Russia or other foreign policy issues in Biden’s nomination acceptance speech, at an earlier Democratic primary debate he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a ‘thug’.
As Trump and Biden battle it out for the White House, is China among the top election issues for policymakers and the American electorate? Will US ties with China remain confrontational and hostile even post November results? How will future Sino-American ties impact India?
These were some of the issues discussed in this episode of #BattlegroundUSA2020. Senior Journalist Smita Sharma asked if Trump had upped the ante on Beijing to deflect attention away from criticisms of his handling of the pandemic?
“It is not unusual for China to be featured in US elections. It is also not unusual for it to be a whipping boy in US elections- especially on economic sides, sometimes on the strategic side about who is going to take them on. President Trump has made it an issue partly because I think he is being targeted for doing not enough on Covid. So one reason why is putting China at the front and centre is to try and put the blame for Covid on them (China),” said Tanvi Madan, a strategic expert and Senior Fellow with Brookings Institute in DC.
“ So he will call it for example ‘China virus’. To some extent, it is to say that look this was foisted upon us by the Chinese and my administration is taking them on in these different ways. He thinks it is a politically winning move. Partly not just because of Covid but specially on trade and because of losses to them he thinks it will be attractive to his base to hear him taking on China,” Tanvi Madan added.
Question is if Trump has laid out a ‘China hawk trap’ for Biden and if the Republicans will be forced to toughen their tone and tenor on Beijing during the campaign? And will Trump keep up the pressure on China if he bags power again?
“When it comes to intensity, I feel even tone of the Republican Trump administration should they come back to power, will mellow a bit. The Democrats may talk more of human rights and things like that. But I think the difference or the gulf is so deep now that it has become impossible for anyone to paper over. It is all about geo politics, it is about American supremacy, and no American leader will want to compromise on that because they have realised that China is not going to stop at challenging the US supremacy,” said Vishnu Prakash, former Indian envoy to South Korea and Canada.
“Democrats have talked about China in a different way. Biden may not have talked about it in his (Democrats National Convention) speech but if you look at other platforms and statements they are also saying ‘we will be tough on China’. But in different ways, by working on the strategic side, by working with allies and partners, on the economic side rejuvenating and reviving the US economy so strengthening at home and also in terms of what they call fair trade. Whether or not people vote on the issue of China per se, but they might vote on certain aspects of the broader foreign policy aspects on the world stage but overall this election is really about how you feel about President Trump,” remarked Tanvi Madan who has also authored the book ‘Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War’.
According to an AP poll in July, 61% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of Covid, but a higher number of Americans (64 %) disapproved of China’s handling of the outbreak. Additionally, according to a recent Pew poll, as many as 73% of Americans have a negative view of China. So is there a strong bi-partisan anti-China sentiment in the US Congress too that is driving these political attacks? And has Trump, known for his political incorrectness and temperament, been consistent on China?
“If there has been one thread of consistency in Trump’s administration outlook that has been China. I was very skeptical when Mike Pence spoke at the Hudson Institute in 2018 literally reading out the riot act to China. I had never seen or heard that kind of language basically accusing China of blindsiding the US, of taking advantage of the system, of espionage, increasing its military might and targeting the US. That was pre-Covid and I think it was very well thought of,” said Vishnu Prakash.
“There has been a consistent approach. In between President Trump played good cop-bad cop. ‘Xi Jinping is good man, others are bad’. But now it is straight and narrow. They are targeting China out and out. Xi Jinping has overplayed his hand, has openly threatened the dominance of US, both militarily and technologically,” the former MEA spokesperson added.
“But I kept my word to the American people. We took the toughest, boldest, strongest and hardest-hitting action against China in American history by far.” Claimed Trump in his RNC speech. The panel discussed if at a time when Sino-Indian ties are at an all-time low in wake of the LAC standoff and Galwan violence, would America hitting out at China harder and trying to decouple trade be of value or a challenge for India?
“There are certain things that Trump has been consistent about since the 80s. He has strong views about alliances, about trade, immigration. I would expect he would feel those instincts are validated. His instincts on trade suggest he would be more competitive. But you could then see Beijing say that Trump is around so let us figure out a deal,” said Tanvi Madan.
Incidentally in July US Secretary of State Michael R Pompeo called for a “new grouping of like-minded countries — an alliance of democracies” to confront China, that received a muted response from Delhi. From the Indo Pacific strategy to adding more muscle and teeth to defence agreements and exercises with allies and partners, will America take on an assertive Beijing or will it be back to business post-November?
“Whether it is a Trump or Biden you could draw different scenarios. You could see a Biden administration that will be as competitive but working with allies and partners. Or you could see a Biden administration saying we need to work with China on issues like pandemics and climate change, so we need to find some ways of accommodating their concerns. So when you think of scenarios and forecasting one crucial thing to watch is who gets appointed to what roles in the administration,” underlined Tanvi Madan.
