Hyderabad: There are ample indications that the 2nd informal India China summit (2IICS) would take place from 11 to 13 October, in the quaint little temple town of Mahabalipuram. However, neither side has confirmed it thus far, reflective of misgivings and uneasiness.
Truth be told, India has been taken aback by the Chinese behaviour on Kashmir, notwithstanding the assurance by EAM (External Affairs Minister) Dr. Jaishankar, during his visit to Beijing from 11 to 13 August, that the 5th August legislative measures on Jammu & Kashmir by the Indian Parliament – “were aimed at promoting better governance and socio-economic development. There was no implication for either the external boundaries of India or the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China. India was not raising any additional territorial claims”.
The first-ever informal India - China summit at Wuhan in April 2018, was hailed as a breakthrough.
President Xi and Prime Minister Modi had held six rounds of 'direct, free and candid' discussions on 'overarching issues of bilateral and global importance' in a relaxed atmosphere. The event was watched closely the world over.
Welcoming his guest, the Chinese President had stated - “China and India are important engines for global growth and central pillars for promoting a multi-polar and globalised world. A good China- India relation is an important and positive factor for maintaining peace and stability in the world.”
As per the joint statement issued upon the conclusion of the summit, the leaders 'decided to strengthen the Development Partnership', agreed to handle differences through peaceful discussion 'bearing in mind the importance of respecting each other and sensitivities, concerns and aspirations' and inter alia 'committed themselves to cooperate on counter-terrorism.'
Savouring the ‘Wuhan Consensus’ former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, a life-long China watcher had opined “….one gets the impression that certain tacit understandings may have been arrived at, though they have not been publicly articulated. There are clues which point to such understandings ……China is unlikely to reverse its penetration of India’s periphery and the Indian Ocean but one may see a greater sensitivity to Indian concerns than before.”
However, the subsequent behaviour of China belied those expectations. Even after the despicable Pulwama terror attack on 14 th February 2019 which extinguished 40 innocent lives, causing a worldwide outrage, China refused to lift the technical hold on Masood Azhar being declared a global terrorist by the UN Security Council.
It was only when Beijing found itself completely isolated that it reluctantly relented in May 2019, having to protect Pakistan and Masood for over a decade.
Again a 'China-India plus' cooperation framework was agreed upon at Wuhan to undertake a joint developmental project in Afghanistan, in the first place.
Faced with Pakistani displeasure, the Chinese sought to wriggle out. Eventually, a joint India China training programme for Afghan diplomats was held from October 15 to 26, 2018, at the Foreign Service Institute of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
Reverting to the JK related developments, the Chinese intransigence sent alarm bells ringing in New Delhi. China emerged as the sole major power to lead the charge against India, on behalf of Pakistan, at the UN in New York and the Human Rights Council in Geneva.
Addressing the UN General Assembly on 27th September, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated - “The Kashmir issue, a dispute left from the past, should be peacefully and properly addressed in accordance with the UN Charter, Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreement. No actions that would unilaterally change the status quo should be taken”. India was quick to advise China to “desist from efforts to change the status quo through the illegal, so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.”
To make her displeasure known, India sought the postponement of the vital 22nd round of SR (Special Representatives) talks on the boundary issue, in early September, which would have provided valuable inputs to both leaders in their discussions during the 2IICS. Secretary (East) MEA was the chief guest at the Chinese Embassy reception celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC (People's Republic of China) instead of a Cabinet Minister.
The scheduled visit of the Northern Army Commander Lt Gen Ranbir Singh was also called off (or postponed). Not just that, JAI (Japan America India) trilateral dialogue was elevated to summit level (Osaka June 2019) and the QUAD (The US, Australia, Japan and India) mechanism, to foreign minister’s level (New York, September 2019). Beijing must have taken due note of these developments.
The question arises whether such informal summits serve any purpose other than generating hype and expectations? In reality, China has not shown understanding or sensitivity towards any core concern of India?
If at all, its stance has hardened. Beijing is not bashful about staking out adversarial positions while professing partnership and cooperation.
All the same, summit-level interactions are crucial to gaining a better understanding of each other’s outlook and chipping away at the contentious issues, even if at an excruciatingly slow pace. It may be noted that China too has its vulnerabilities including a slowing economy, industrial over-capacity, ongoing trade and geo-political tussle with the US, global pushback on BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), unrest in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet, as also backlash from littoral states due to militarization of SCS (South China Sea).
Given the asymmetric power balance between the two countries, India has been carefully shoring-up her defences, making common cause with like-minded countries and calibrating her approach towards China. India has rightly avoided exacerbating tensions with China, despite its numerous provocations, opting instead for a mix of firmness and tact. The Doklam standoff offers a good example. New Delhi refused to be drawn into a verbal duel with Beijing, held its positions on ground and resorted to quiet diplomacy.
Prime Minister Modi and President XI have met several times. Both are strong leaders who hold each other in high esteem. While there may not be an agreement on any major issue, the sides may be able to narrow the trust gap.
They could agree to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations in a befitting manner, next year. China may be more willing to work with India to reduce the yawning trade deficit. And who knows, if the blessings of Lord Vishnu, the presiding deity of Mahabalipuram, prompts the sides to actually think out of the box. In any event, the dialogue process must continue, as the alternative is conflict that neither side wants.
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