New Delhi: Even as India witnessed a spike of almost 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the last three consecutive days, Dr Giridhar Gyani, an health expert told ETV Bharat on Tuesday that peak for the global pandemic is yet to take place in the country.
"It will be around July 15 when India may witness the peak of COVID-19 cases. And if we go by the present trend, India might record more than 15 lakh cases by July 15,” said Dr Gyani.
Dr Gyani, who is the director general of Association of Health care Providers-India (AHPI) said that virus cases in the country will come down from September. HPI represents the majority of healthcare providers in India.
In fact, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) also keeps taking suggestions from this organisation on different health related issues.
Earlier, different health experts also suggested that COVID-19 peak in India will take place in June-July.
"By June end the total COVID- 19 cases may cross 7 lakh," said Dr Gyani.
However, given the fact of India’s total population, the present COVID-19 number of 2,66,598 shows that the pandemic is still under control in the country. The doubling rate is also 12-13 days.
In the last 24 hours India registered a spike of 9987 Covid cases. On Monday a spike of 9983 was registered and on Sunday 9887 virus cases were registered across India. Significantly, India has also been witnessing a high recovery rate of Covid-19 patients.
Government statistics said that 5120 people were cured in the last 24 hours whereas 4802 were cured on Monday and 4611 have been cured on Sunday.
A total of 129215 people in India have also been cured from the disease.
"India’s Covid cases jumped from five to 2,66,598 in the last three months,” said Dr Gyani.
He, however, credited India’s proactive steps in containing the disease.
"If we compare India’s position with other Covid affected countries, our country is still giving a tough fight against the pandemic...However, spikes in a few states have worsened India’s situation,” said Dr Gyani.
As per a study compiled by Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) of the John Hopkins University, India has crossed Spain’s total COVID-19 figure of 2,41,717 and came to fifth position in the global platform. The US, Brazil, Russia and UK are the top four countries having the maximum number of coronavirus cases.
Dr Gyani said that community transmission of Covid-19 disease might have started in the country's containment areas.
“There are indications of community transmission of coronavirus following the fact that such cases in containment zones have been increasing in spite of continuous lockdown and several other strong measures taken by the government,” Dr Gyani said.
The Union Health Ministry till date has denied that there is any community transmission in India.
In fact, a spike of coronavirus cases in as many as 15 states and UTs including Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Assam, Haryana, Gujarat, Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha have aggravated India’s situation.
The Health Ministry has identified 50 districts and municipal bodies in these 15 states which have been witnessing a spike in Covid cases. And accordingly, high level multi disciplinary central teams have been deployed in these areas to assist the state government by providing technical support for containment and facilitate management of the outbreak.
Government officials said that each team consisted of three members including two public health experts (epidemiologists/clinicians) and a senior joint secretary level officer.
“These teams are working in the field and visiting health care facilities to support the administration in implementation of containment measures and efficient treatment management of cases within the districts,” sources said.
In order to ensure better coordination, officials said, it is proposed that these districts and municipalities should regularly remain in touch with central teams which are already coordinating with the States.
"Such frequent interaction would further strengthen the surveillance, containment, testing and treatment related action on the ground," officials said.
The central teams are assisting the States and UTs in addressing some of the challenges faced by them such testing bottlenecks, low tests/per million population, high confirmation rates, high testing confirmation rate, risk of capacity shortfall over the next two months, potential bed shortage, growing case fatality rate, high doubling rate, sudden spike in active cases, etc.
It may be mentioned here that many districts and municipalities have already formed a dedicated core team at the district level consisting of district level medical and administrative officials to coordinate over regular basis with the central team.
Also read: Are There Possibilities Of Reinfection With COVID-19?
