Patna: With just a few days left for the crucial 2020 Bihar assembly polls to resume, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seems to be facing multiple and critical challenges in his effort to head the state administration for the fourth consecutive term.
The challenge for Kumar's JD(U) is more from his erstwhile NDA partner, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) rather than from the united opposition of RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI(M) and CPI. LJP has decided to test electoral waters by going solo this time and has been targeting Nitish government over various issues.
Although JD(U) and LJP are having their own alliances with BJP intact, the current LJP supremo, Chirag Paswan has made it clear that he will field candidates only against JD(U) and not against BJP.
At a time when Kumar was trying to garner the confidence of lower caste votes in Bihar, a state traditionally dominated by caste-based politics, through the creation of a separate "Mahadalit" sector, the sudden demise of LJP founder and Union minister, Ram Vilas Paswan has come as a shocker for the chief minister.
The sympathy wave following the death of Paswan, who also hails from lower caste background, is bound to result in a dent in Dalit followers of JD(U) swinging in favour of LJP. This swing will either help LJP or the united opposition, the latter hoping to benefit out of the Dalit vote sharing between JD(U) and LJP.
The second factor that is going against Kumar is the lack of a credible Rajput face in his party. In fact, the same problem is also haunting BJP in Bihar, wherein at least 45 out of 243 assembly constituencies where the Rajpur vote bank is a factor.
On the other hand, RJD still has an extremely credible Rajput face as Jagadananda Singh. Although Satya Prakash Singh, the elder son of RJD's erstwhile most popular Rajput face, late Raghuvansh Prasad Singh has joined JD(U), it is too early to say how far Kumar can exploit Singh's image in garnering Rajput votes.
Another major challenge for the chief minister is the dwindling state of state finance, the plight of industries and lack of employment opportunities which all opposition parties, especially RJ(D), have made the prime election issue. RJD leader and the current leader of the opposition in Bihar assembly, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, the son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, in all his election campaigns, has highlighted the unemployment rate in Bihar, which is 46.6% and one of the highest in the country.
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He had also accused Kumar of promoting migration by not filling up vacant posts and also promised to provide 10 lakh permanent government jobs if the united opposition alliance is voted to power this time in Bihar. Questions are also being raised on how Kumar’s prohibition implementation in Bihar not only had an adverse impact on the state’s own tax revenue but also virtually collapsed the state’s tourism industry resulting into the closure of a number of hotels throwing thousands unemployed.
In fact, Kumar himself seems to have realized that the issue of unemployment can be a big factor for him the coming elections, as on October 14, while addressing through the virtual medium the people of the 11 assembly constituencies said that there is no state in the country and no country in the world that that can give a job to every individual.
Finally, the new experiment of Grand Democratic Secular Front, a coalition of community-based parties like Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), along with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati, Samajwadi Janata Dal (SJD) of former Union minister Devendra Prasad, the Janwadi Party (Socialist) of Dr Sanjay Chauhan and the Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party of Om Prakash Rajbhar is also keeping the JD(U) camp tensed. If Owaisi can make a dent in JD(U)’s Muslim vote bank and RLSP into that of Kushwaha-Koeri-Kurmi community, then many poll calculations can change against JD(U) especially in view of the fact that Kumar himself comes from the Kurmi community.
While these are the major challenges for Kumar, the opposition can have certainly formidable hindrances. The first challenge is that both Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, as well as Chirag Paswan, lack experience in running a government, a factor which Nithish Kumar and his party are trying to highlight in the campaign.
The second negative factor which might work positively for Kumar is that the two most popular faces of the campaign for both united opposition alliance and LJP are missing this time. RJD supremo, Lalu Prasad Yadav who is currently serving 27.5 years jail term after being convicted in the fodder scam in 2017, will not be in the campaign fray this year. And so will Ram Vilas Paswan because of his sudden demise, which will surely keep Nithish Kumar some steps ahead of his rivals at least in the campaign phase.
