Hyderabad: Predictions and commentaries surrounding the hotly contested 2021 Assembly elections—in four states and one union territory—have touched a peak with only hours left for the counting of votes to begin on Sunday morning.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the dates for the assembly elections in four states — West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry on February 26.
Nearly 18.68 crore voters cast their votes at 2.7 lakh polling stations for 824 assembly seats to elect their government as the terms of the legislative assemblies of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry are coming to an end in May and June.
Read:| Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections: What do the exit polls say?
On Sunday, when the EVMs will be brought out from the strong rooms in the four states and one Union Territory, the futures of many candidates will come to the fore.
ASSAM:
The elections to the 126 seats of the Assam Assembly were held in a total of three phases.
KEY ISSUES & POLL PLANKS-
In Assam, voters’ moods have swayed between the BJP’s development agenda for the past five years, based on which they sought votes for a second term and that of the massive popular sentiment against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act raked up by the Congress.
BIG FIGHTS-
The state had witnessed a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress-backed All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
Assam Chief Minister and senior BJP leader Sarbananda Sonowal, BJP's Himanta Biswa Sarma, Asom Gana Parishad president Atul Bora, Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Ripun Bora and jailed anti-CAA activist and chief of Raijor Dal Akhil Gogoi were some of the prominent candidates of Assam Assembly elections.
POLL PROJECTIONS-
Exit polls are typically based on feedback from a limited number of voters in select areas and none of them has a 100 per cent accuracy record.
ETV Bharat projected that the BJP-led alliance is likely to get around 64 out of the total 126 Assembly seats in Assam, while the Congress-led grand alliance could bag around 55 seats. The newly floated Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the Raijor Dal, led by jailed farmers’ rights activist Akhil Gogoi and the independents could bag the remaining 7 seats.
Read:| Assam Assembly Elections: What do the exit polls say?
Several opinion polls have placed the ruling coalition ahead of the grand alliance. India Today-My Axis and Times Now-Cvoter have also predicted a clear lead for BJP but Republic-CNX showed a clear lead for NDA.
TAMIL NADU:
The elections to the 234 seats of the Tamil Nadu Assembly were held in a single phase on April 6.
KEY ISSUES & POLL PLANKS-
Tamil Nadu has witnessed a bipolar contest with AIADMK and DMK vying for the top post in the state. DMK has taken up the 'local vs outsider' factor as it tried to project an overarching theme that a win for the AIADMK would lead to the state being run by the BJP and its government in New Delhi. Major issues which took centre stage during the campaigning phase were corruption and the holding the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET). Containing the spread of coronavirus was another key issue.
BIG FIGHTS-
Incumbent Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami from All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is hoping to retain the power, while MK Stalin from the state’s main opposition party — Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) –– is hoping to finally move to the treasury benches after a gap of 10 years. Kamal Haasan from Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and O Paneer Selvam from AIADMK were also prominent faces of assembly polls in the state.
POLL PROJECTIONS-
For Tamil Nadu, it seems that the road ends for EPS and the DMK is all set to form the next government in the state. ETV Bharat projection shows the DMK Front could bag as many as 133 seats, whereas the AIADMK Front's kitty could only have 89 seats and 12 seats going to others.
Apart from ETV Bharat, Times Now-Cvoter, India Today-My Axis and Republic-CNX have also predicted a clear lead for DMK.
KERALA:
The elections to the 140 seats of the Kerala Assembly were held in a single phase on April 6.
KEY ISSUES & POLL PLANKS-
Sabarimala issue, corruption and nepotism charges on the current government, social welfare measures, development works and strong leadership at times of crisis like that of the Nipah outbreak, consecutive floods and the coronavirus pandemic, were the KEY issues that people focused on while casting their ballots.
BIG FIGHTS-
In Kerala, the contest was between CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front's Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and C Raghunath of Congress, CK Padmanabhan of BJP from Dharmadam assembly constituency. CPIM's KK Shailaja and KT Jaleel, Congress' Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala and BJP's E Sreedharan and K Surendran were some prominent leaders.
POLL PROJECTIONS-
ETV Bharat’s projection indicates that the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is going to have a historic consecutive second term with 82 seats, indicating that there is no anti-incumbency wave in God’s own country. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) will have to settle for 56 seats this time while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) alliance led by BJP may have to contend with the lone seat.
Read:| Kerala Assembly Elections: What do the exit polls say?
Apart from ETV Bharat, Times Now-Cvoter, India Today-MyAxis and Republic-CNX have also predicted a clear lead for LDF.
PUDUCHERRY:
The elections to the 30 seats of the Puducherry Assembly were held in a single phase on April 6.
KEY ISSUES & POLL PLANKS-
Special Union territory status to Puducherry, increase devolution of funds from 25 per cent to 40 per cent, the inclusion of the UT in the Central Finance Commission, education for backward classes and girls and coronavirus crisis are few big issues in the state.
BIG FIGHTS-
N Rangasamy, Richards Johnkumar from All India NR Congress and A Namassivayam and A Johnkumar from BJP are few prominent candidates in the states who contested in the assembly polls.
POLL PROJECTIONS-
Republic-CNX along with India Today-My Axis has predicted a clear lead for NDA, while Times Now-Cvoter has predicted a win for BJP.
WEST BENGAL:
The elections to the 292 seats of the West Bengal Assembly were held in a total of eight phases.
KEY ISSUES & POLL PLANKS-
The ruling TMC government is facing mounting allegations of nepotism and favouritism. The devastation caused by severe cyclonic storm Amphan and rising cases of coronavirus has been key issues in the state.
This election in West Bengal also played on the sub-text of polarisation and regional caste factors.
The TMC headed by two-time Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is trying to get another term while BJP, perhaps Mamata's strongest opponent, is on the fray for rising to the helm of West Bengal.
Read:| West Bengal Assembly Elections: What do the exit polls say?
The state faces issues including regularisation of the citizenship of refugees, implementation of CAA, the crisis in MSME and industrial infrastructure sectors, job quota for women, one job per family, implementation of 7th pay commission, free education for girls, widow pension and income schemes among others.
BIG FIGHTS-
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, AITC leader Partha Chatterjee, BJP's Suvendu Adhikari, Mukul Roy and Biswajit Sinha are among prominent candidates who contested in the West Bengal Assembly elections.
POLL PROJECTIONS-
ETV Bharat projection indicates that Trinamool Congress could get as many as 131 seats, the BJP could bag around 126 seats, the Left Front and its allies can have 32 seats with three seats going to ‘others’.
Times Now-Cvoter has also predicted a clear lead for TMC.
Republic-CNX predicts a close fight between TMC and BJP in West Bengal with nearly 128-138 seats for AITC and 138-148 seats for BJP.
Meanwhile, India Today-My Axis also shows a close fight between TMC and BJP with AITC bagging nearly 130-156 seats and BJP bagging 134-160 seats.
