Assam keeps BJP going, no impact of NRC in results

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has retained Assam successfully despite the strong anti-incumbency and controversies related to the implementation of NRC and CAA. BJP's election campaign issues were based on 'identity and development' in the state, which saw anti-NRC and anti-CAA protests in some regions.

Hyderabad: The Bharatiya Janata Party has retained Assam successfully despite the strong anti-incumbency and controversies related to the implementation of NRC and CAA. BJP's election campaign issues were based on 'identity' and 'development' in the state, which saw anti-NRC and anti-CAA protests in some regions.

However, the NDA led allies, comprising of BJP, Asom Gana Parishad and United People's Party Liberal, still bagged 75 seats in the 2021 assembly elections. Its nearest rival, the UPA led by the Indian National Congress did well compared to last time, bagged 50 seats.

BJP leaders in the state led by Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma mainly highlighted the state's people-friendly policies, rapid infrastructure development and issues of identification and economic growth. BJP in Assam also benefited from the party's primary focus on the neighbouring state of West Bengal. It allowed the party's local leaders to focus on the issues that are more relevant and based on election priorities.

As the Citizen Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens, caused genuine fears among the residents, BJP walked a tightrope in Assam. In Assam's upper districts, there are genuine fears that CAA will allow the state to grant citizenship to religious minorities from neighbouring countries of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

This is a state, where fear of outsiders led to a seven-year-long protest, ending with the signing of the Assam Accord in 1985. As per the accord, March 1975 was set as the deadline for foreigners and outsiders to be granted citizenship rights. The CAA instil fresh doubts and fears in the minds of the people of Assam. Some people in the state fear the law would legitimise the citizenship claims of outsiders arriving before December 2014. BJP's rivals, the two regional parties of Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal, also banked heavily on the anti-CAA sentiments.

On the NRC front, the state's list released in August 2019, excluded 1.9 million residents. BJP too admitted that many genuine citizens were left out and the NRC is yet to be notified in the state. There are serious grievances in the lower and middle Assam as well, which has a sizeable Muslim community.

INC's poll alliance with Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) put some serious challenge for BJP in Assam. The INC along with AIUDF stitched a coalition comprising of Bodoland People's Front, CPI, CPI (M) and CPI (ML). The UPA did better than the previous assembly elections, winning around 50 seats, but failed to dent BJP's gains.

One key observation of the BJP's win in Assam has to be the massive infrastructure upgrades, including the construction of massive bridges, roads, railway lines, hospitals, and educational institutions, which made a visible transformation in the state. The party has also benefited from a silent and gradual shift of ethnic-based identity to a broader and national identity, which allowed it to ride free from the shadows of CAA and NRC.

One battle remains for BJP now—who will be the next Assam CM? The usual contenders are the incumbent Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and the election architect, Himanta Biswa Sarma.