Hyderabad: Is that a woman on a wheelchair who has stopped the Rath of the BJP or the narrative that was built to make the minorities believe that their existence will be in danger if the saffron party came to power in West Bengal? The BJP’s Rath was stopped by the minorities who consolidated their votes behind the Trinamool Congress (TMC), deserting all other major secular parties.
The belief that only Mamata Banerjee can stop the BJP from coming to power brought the minorities together. There are other factors, as well, which worked against BJP in West Bengal which is why they were wiped out from the entire South of Jangal Mahal where it had completely swept through during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The fact that women voters came out in large numbers in Jangal Mahal indicated that they voted for the TMC, in a bid to keep the BJP completely out of the constituency. Even the Internationalization of Mathuas did not earn much dividends for the BJP.
It is actually the people's mandate for Mamata against the BJP, which is why the Trinamool performed better than the 2016 assembly elections and the additional vote share which BJP has got came from the Congress, Left, etc, wiping them out in many areas from the electoral map of West Bengal.
Kolkata has shown the door to the BJP where they expected a good number of seats. Even the turncoats which BJP believed would do miracles for them did not do well. Most of the MLAs who deserted the TMC to the BJP lost the elections, including big names like Rajib Banerjee, Baishali Dalmiya etc. Among the defected MLAs, Suvendu Adhikari proved to be a big catch for the BJP in West Bengal, who managed to somehow dent the TMC by defeating the incumbent Chief Minister from East Madnipur’s Nandigram seat.
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Kerala is no different story for the BJP where the party was completely decimated and will have no representation in the state assembly for another five years. Minorities of north and central Kerala changed their loyalty and consolidated their vote behind the LDF for they were made to believe there is a threat to their existence if the saffron party came to power. North Kerala, the stronghold of the Muslim League voted majorly for the Left, the same way the Central part of the state comprises a sizeable population of Christians, who also voted in favour of the LDF. The saffron party could not do well in the southern part as well which is mostly a Hindu majority part of the state for lack of a plausible and meaningful narrative.
It was the narrative that helped bring DMK into power in Tamil Nadu and the agenda they put forth outwitted the allegations levelled against them for having dynasty politics in this southern state. Not only did the second generation of Karunanidhi, M K Stalin, win but the third-generation prince, too, displayed excellent performance. Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi Stalin won from the Chepauk constituency with a good margin. The AIADMK used to have a major vote share of women because of Jayalalithaa but the same vote block has consolidated behind the DMK now.
The DMK not only comes to power after AIADMK's ten years of anti-incumbency but makes sure the succession of the power to the next generation goes smoothly. The perennial prince, M K Stalin, finally becomes the king after 45 years of political vicissitudes. The DMK comes to power at a time when the whole of India is grappling with the health crisis due to an upsurge in coronavirus cases. The DMK seems to be clear about its priorities as shown by its spokesperson Manusundaram who on Sunday said that the party has a lot of challenges ahead for they are taking charge when there is a health crisis around and across.
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Unlike West Bengal and Kerala, there is a happy story for the BJP in Assam where the minority votes could not dent the party. In fact, it is the Congress made the narrative of protecting the identity of indigenous subjects which has worked well for the BJP together with a slogan of development. The anti-CAA and NRC slogans could not perform well for Mahajot of Congress- BPF (Bodoland People’s Front), Left and AIUDF—maybe, because BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma is far bigger a personality in persuading people towards his party. The BJP made a promise to implement clause VI of the Assam Accord which assures protection of indigenous Assamese. Portraying Badruddin Ajmal as a communal force and a threat to indigenous Assamese has dented his allies the most. State Congress president Ripun Bora losing the election indicates how the people have viewed the ‘Mahajot’ as an unholy alliance.
Now the challenge ahead for the BJP would be to maintain balance and peace between the incumbent chief minister and Himanta Biswa as the latter has been eyeing for a long time to become the chief minister of Assam.
Will the BJP in Assam see a similar crisis like in Tamil Nadu when its alliance partner AIADMK was divided into two camps due to infighting between E Palaniswamy and O Panneerselvam? Or, will the saffron party find a solution to settle differences between Sonowal and Biswa?
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And now the interesting thing to see is how a non-MLA Mamata Banerjee ensures she becomes the MLA in another six months to hold back her chief ministerial post. And, what constituency will she choose to contest from? Is Kolkata’s Kharda constituency waiting for Mamata to become MLA as the constituency is left vacant after the candidate died of Covid during elections?
