New Delhi: With the parliamentary elections in Bhutan having concluded and Tshering Tobgay becoming the Prime Minister of the Himalayan kingdom for the second time, those in the corridors of power in New Delhi will be a happy lot.
Tobgay's People's Democratic Party (PDP) won 30 seats in the 47-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Bhutan's parliament, after the runoff round of the two-phased elections was held on January 9. The other party in the runoff round, the newly-floated Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP) led by former civil servant Pema Chewang, secured 17 seats.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi immediately congratulated Tobgay for winning the parliamentary elections. "Heartiest congratulations to my friend @tsheringtobgay and the People’s Democratic Party for winning the parliamentary elections in Bhutan," Modi posted on X, formerly known as Twitter. "Look forward to working together again to further strengthen our unique ties of friendship and cooperation."
Tobgay is the first person to become the Prime Minister of Bhutan for the second time after the country became a constitutional monarchy in 2008. He had earlier served as the Prime Minister from 2013 to 2018 after the second parliamentary elections held in 2013. Prior to that, he was the Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly after the first parliamentary elections held in 2008.
Why is Tobgay becoming Prime Minister again good news for India? The immediate issue is the border negotiations with China. Bhutan acts as a buffer state between Asian giants India and China. Bhutan shares an international border with China running for 477 km. China has been claiming territories in Bhutan since publishing a map in 1961. Bhutan and China do not have official diplomatic relations. Until the 1970s, India represented Bhutan's concerns in talks with China over the broader Sino-Indian border conflicts. Obtaining membership in the United Nations in 1971, Bhutan began to take a more independent course in its foreign policy.
In 1983, then Chinese Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian and then Bhutanese Foreign Minister Dawa Tsering held talks on establishing bilateral relations in New York. In 1984, China and Bhutan began annual, direct talks over the border dispute. In 1998, China and Bhutan signed a bilateral agreement for maintaining peace on the border.
In the agreement, China affirmed its respect for Bhutan's sovereignty and territorial integrity and both sides sought to build ties based on the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. However, China's building of roads on what Bhutan asserts to be Bhutanese territory, allegedly in violation of the 1998 agreement, has provoked tensions.
Then came the 73-day standoff between India and China at the Doklam tri-junction in 2017. The Doklam plateau holds significant importance for India's strategic interests. The conflict arose when China sought to extend a road into an area claimed by Bhutan. India raised strong objections, expressing concerns about the potential impact on its overall security interests.
Following multiple rounds of negotiations, the India-China face-off eventually concluded. Subsequently, in October 2021, Bhutan and China entered into an agreement outlining a "three-step roadmap" to accelerate talks and address their boundary dispute.
However, it was the nature of Tobgay's predecessor Lotay Tshering's engaging with China in the border negotiations that brought some level of discomfort for India. Though India should have been kept in the loop about the talks, it was not done despite New Delhi's interests in the region. Last year, during an interview with Belgian daily La Ligue, Lotay Tshering said China has an equal say in resolving the border dispute in Doklam.
"It is not up to Bhutan alone to solve the problem. There are three of us. There is no big or small country, there are three equal countries, each counting for a third," he said. This raised eyebrows in New Delhi. India is consistently Bhutan's top trading partner and the primary source of investments in the country.
Then again, in October last year, ahead of the Lotay Tshering government being dissolved because of the elections, then Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji was in Beijing to hold talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
An official statement issued by the Chinese foreign ministry following the negotiations read: "The conclusion of boundary negotiations and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Bhutan fully serve the long-term and fundamental interests of the country and nation of Bhutan. China is ready to work with Bhutan in the same direction, seize the historic opportunity, complete this important process as soon as possible, and fix and develop China-Bhutan friendly relations in legal form."
It is also worth mentioning that during his tenure as Prime Minister from 2018 to 2023, Lotay Tshering visited India only twice – once, for a state visit in December 2018, and then to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019. Contrast this to Tobgay's first term as Prime Minister between 2013 and 2018 when he visited India as many as nine times. Tobgay has been very vocal about deepening ties with India.
"India is our immediate neighbour and we are extremely close. Our friendship is based on good will, trust, understanding, very good cooperation," Tobgay was once quoted as saying in a popular American talk show on Public Broadcasting Service when he was in office. "Our relation with India transcends political parties. The architecture of our friendship is our leaders and from the Bhutanese part it is our kings."
Tobgay said that Bhutan has a "good relations" with China, but not as deep as India. "We have a 470-kilometer border that has not yet been finalised with China. We are discussing the border and we need to finalise the border," he said. This time around, Tobgay will be assuming office at a time when Bhutan is faced with economic strife and growing youth unemployment.
According to a World Bank report in 2023, job creation in Bhutan outside of the public sector and agriculture has been limited. "The lack of economic diversification and limited private sector activity pose risks to long-term growth and job creation," the report stated. "High unemployment rates since the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among the youth, contributed to significant emigration. The youth unemployment rate, which was already high before the pandemic, stood at 29 percent in 2022."
According to the report, Bhutan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is projected to decline to 4 percent in financial year 2023-24. It also stated that Bhutan maintains strong economic and strategic relations with India, particularly as its major trading partner, source of foreign aid and as a financier and buyer of surplus hydropower.
"While hydropower has provided a reliable source of growth, non-hydro sectors, facing constraints related to the country's challenging investment climate including high trade costs and a small domestic market, remain less competitive. As a result, job creation outside of the public sector and agriculture has been limited," the World Bank report stated.
However, Tobgay will have the opportunity to address these challenges following Bhutan King Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuk's announcement last month of setting up a special administrative region in Gelephu bordering India's northeastern state of Assam.
The project envisages connectivity of Bhutan with South and Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal region. The announcement of the project coincided with with the concurrent development of a 57.5-km railway line linking Kokrajhar in Assam with Gelephu. The Rs 10-billion project, a result of discussions between King Wangchuck and Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the former’s visit to Delhi last year, signifies a historic milestone in rail connectivity between the two nations.
Tobgay’s PDP, in its election manifesto, stressed on enhancing economic, connectivity and people-to-people ties with India. It has promised waiving the sustainable development fee (SDF) imposed on foreigners for tourists coming through towns bordering India. Apart from the waiver of SDF, the party promises to establish an India-Bhutan office along the Indian highway to provide assistance to travellers and truckers in distress, including those involved in accidents. It also aims at establishing railway connectivity at Gelephu, Nganglam, Samtse, Samdrup Jongkhar, and Pasakha with the Indian rail links.
The PDP manifesto also promises to streamline the referral system and institute additional referral systems from Samtse, Mongar, Phuentsholing, Gelephu, Nganglam and Dewathang in Bhutan where patients can be referred to Siliguri, Bogaigoan and Guwahati in India. It also seeks to develop Nganglam, a town in southeastern Bhutan bordering Assam, into an economic hub.
"Bordering the Indian state of Assam, Nganglam is home to the country's largest cement plant - Dungsam Cement," the manifesto states. "Given its strategic importance, we will develop Nganglam into a thriving economic hub." Given all this, India will be happy to having Tshering Tobgay back as the Prime Minister of Bhutan.
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