New Delhi: When world leaders and climate activists gather in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on November 30 for the COP28 (28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), the focus will be on whether all countries will commit to the Paris Agreement of 2015 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C.
At the COP21 held in Paris in 2015, the world agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2050. Global warming is the long-term warming of the planet’s overall temperature. Though this warming trend has been going on for a long time, its pace has significantly increased in the last 100 years due to the burning of fossil fuels. As the human population has increased, so has the volume of fossil fuels burned. Fossil fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas, and burning them causes what is known as the “greenhouse effect” in the earth’s atmosphere.
The greenhouse effect is when the sun’s rays penetrate the atmosphere but the heat reflected off the surface cannot escape back into space. Gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels prevent the heat from leaving the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, water vapour, methane, and nitrous oxide. The excess heat in the atmosphere has caused the average global temperature to rise over time, otherwise known as global warming.
The Paris Agreement and the climate action taken following this significantly helped in reducing emissions. In 2011, the projected warming by the year 2100 was 3.7–4.8 °C. After COP27 held in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, it was 2.4–2.6 °C and in the best case, if all pledges are accomplished, 1.7–2.1 °C. As of September 2023, the world is not on track to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. Trillions of dollars are needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C. All financial flows need to change. More effective international cooperation and collaboration are crucial for reaching the targets of the Paris Agreement.
“To remain on target, science tells us that emissions must be halved by 2030,” Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, President-Designate of COP28 UAE, writes on the COP28 website. “We only have another seven years to meet that goal. COP28 UAE is a prime opportunity to rethink, reboot, and refocus the climate agenda.”
According to the international development group Practical Action, COP28 in Dubai “will need to move beyond reassessing past commitments and deliver bolder action to keep 1.5°C in sight, avoid even greater losses and damages and accelerate a just transition to an economy that works for people and the planet”.
Al Jaber, who is also the chief of the UAE’s national oil and gas company, ADNOC, has spearheaded an attempt to bring fossil fuel executives to COP28, saying that they must have a place at the table, despite the misgivings voiced by climate activists. Al Jaber also serves as chairman and a founder of the renewable energy company Masdar, is the UAE’s climate envoy, and serves as minister for industry and advanced technology.
In July this year, while speaking at the Ministerial on Climate Action in Brussels, convened by the environment ministers of the European Union, Canada, and China, Al Jaber detailed a four-pillar action plan for COP28. “This plan is guided by a single north star. And that is keeping 1.5C within reach,” he said. “To do this, we aim to match the highest ambition for the negotiated outcomes with an equally strong and robust action agenda that can implement those outcomes in the real world.”
The four-pillar action plan of Al Jaber entails fixing climate finance for COP28 and beyond, fast-tracking the transition to clean energy, adaptation to protect lives and livelihoods, and full inclusivity from wider society.
Climate finance refers to local, national or transnational financing – drawn from public, private and alternative sources of financing – that seeks to support mitigation and adaptation actions that will address climate change. It calls for financial assistance from countries with more financial resources to those that are less endowed and more vulnerable. This recognises that the contribution of countries to climate change and their capacity to prevent it and cope with its consequences vary enormously. Climate finance is needed for mitigation because large-scale investments are required to significantly reduce emissions. Climate finance is equally important for adaptation, as significant financial resources are needed to adapt to the adverse effects and reduce the impacts of a changing climate.
Making critical calls to action on climate finance, Al Jaber urged stakeholders to ensure “comprehensive transformation” of climate finance instead of “piecemeal reform”, with a special focus on supporting “climate-positive development” across the Global South to ensure that developing nations can have access to affordable and available climate finance to drive a just transition. Al Jaber called on donors to double adaptation finance by 2025, emphasising the urgency for donor countries to honour their commitments and close out the $100 billion pledge this year. At COP15 held in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries committed to a collective goal of mobilising $100 billion per year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation. The goal was formalised at COP16 in Cancun, and at COP21 in Paris, it was reiterated and extended to 2025.
On fast-tracking the transition, Al Jaber emphasised the need to take an integrated approach that considers supply and demand at the same time. “As I’ve said many times, the phase down of fossil fuels is inevitable. It is in fact essential. And it must also be responsible. We must take a holistic approach that brings together both the supply and the demand side in an integrated response,” he stated.
Coming to the adaptation to protect lives and livelihoods, Al Jaber shared his intention to advance the world’s focus on nature, food, health and resilience as part of a robust framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Established by the Paris Agreement, the GGA aims to “enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.”
Al Jaber called on governments to integrate National Food System Transformation plans into both their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation plans, and to participate in the first climate-health ministerial at COP28, on what will be the first day devoted to health at a COP. The transition plan calls for a tripling of renewable energy production and a doubling of hydrogen production by 2030 and urges oil and gas companies to diversify into clean energies.
To enhance inclusivity, COP28 will feature the largest ever youth climate delegate programme, a designated pavilion for indigenous peoples, and a historic number of mayors and local leaders attending, who are driving climate action at the sub-national level.
“We are inviting every segment of society to join us at COP28 – policymakers and passionate advocates, engineers and entrepreneurs,” Al Jaber said. “We need both activism and what I call actionism. We need everyone around the table to claim their rightful share of voice in the conversation and be ready to deliver a truly inclusive COP.”
The COP28 will also see the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake, a fundamental component of the Paris Agreement which is meant to monitor its implementation and evaluate the collective progress made in achieving the agreed goals. The Global Stocktake thus links the implementation of NDCs with the overarching goals of the Paris Agreement and has the ultimate aim of raising climate ambition. The first stocktake got underway at the COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 and will conclude at COP28 in 2023. Each stocktake is a two-year process that happens every five years.
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