New Delhi: The manifesto released by the ruling Awami League ahead of the general elections in Bangladesh may seem paradoxical at first look vis-à-vis ties with India and China, but there is a strong underlying message that Dhaka will not compromise New Delhi’s security interests while dealing with Beijing.
According to the manifesto, Bangladesh will continue to cooperate with India in various areas including cross-border connectivity, transit, energy partnership and equitable water sharing.
"The government will also continue bilateral trade and security cooperation with India," it states. "In addition, the government will open up new areas of cooperation with India-Bhutan-Nepal for hydro-power generation and joint management of common river basins"
As far as ties with China are concerned, the manifesto states: "Bangladesh is willing to strengthen relations with China in terms of development financing." So, will this be a cause of concern for India in terms of strategic and security interests in the region?
According to Sharin Shajahan Naomi, an academic and social activist of Bangladesh who is currently pursuing her post-doctoral fellowship at KREA University in India, India need not be worried as Bangladesh's ties with China are completely economical in nature.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Naomi recalled that China was against the independence of Bangladesh in 1971. It was only after the assassination of Bangladesh’s founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman that China finally gave recognition to the South Asian nation on August 31, 1975.
"The first high-level visit from China to Bangladesh took place in 1978 when our country was under a military regime," Naomi said. "This shows that China is not pro-Awami League.” She said that it was during the rule of military dictator Ziaur Rahman that China started exporting defence equipment to Bangladesh.
"China's interest in Bangladesh became completely different. It has a political agenda,” she said. However, since Sheikh Hasina came to power, Bangladesh’s ties with China were kept limited to the economical level.
During the Awami League's rule in Bangladesh, China adopted a strategy that focused on strengthening economic relations without explicitly addressing concerns about the country's political ecosystem. Notably, China was the first nation to extend a warm welcome to the Awami League government following the controversial 2014 elections, and it promptly congratulated them on their significant victory in the equally disputed 2018 elections.
In contrast to financial assistance from the US and Europe, Chinese investments in Bangladesh's infrastructure are not tied to conditions related to human rights, good governance, or democracy. Consequently, this has enabled the Awami League government to reduce its reliance on Western support.
According to the annual report of the Bangladesh Bank, China invested $465.17 (13.5 per cent of the total foreign direct investment in Bangladesh) and Hong Kong invested $179.22 (5.2 per cent) in the July-June period of the financial year 2022, taking the total Chinese investment to $644.30 million. Overall, China has invested $7 billion in Bangladesh and, in exchange, got a contract worth $23 billion.
According to data provided by the American Enterprise Institute think tank, China invested over $7 billion in power and energy, metals, transport and finance among others in Bangladesh. In return, Chinese contractors got work worth nearly $23 billion in the sectors of power and energy, transport, real estate, agriculture, technology and utilities.
Some of the notable projects undertaken in Bangladesh with Chinese funding are the Padma Bridge Rail Link Project, the construction of a tunnel under Karnaphuli River, Dhaka-Ashulia Elevated Expressway, expansion and strengthening of Dhaka Power Distribution Company’s power system network, etc.
The Economic Relations Department (ERD) said, since independence, China has pledged to invest more than $10.77 billion in loans and grants in various sectors of the country. Of this, about $6.44 billion has been discounted. But the fact of the matter is that very little came as donations. Most of it is debt. These loans came mainly in the last two decades.
Naomi explained that Bangladesh-China ties are completely confined to the financial sector as Hasina doesn't want to compromise India’s strategic and security interests.
"At the international level, China doesn’t hold any importance for Bangladesh,” Naomi said. “For example, China didn’t take any concrete step to solve the Rohingya crisis.”
During a period when the international community was gearing up to exert pressure on Myanmar due to the ethnic cleansing and violent atrocities against the Rohingya population in 2017, China emerged as a supporter of Myanmar. As a strategic move, China played a key role in facilitating an agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees. Consequently, Bangladesh, influenced by China, proceeded to sign the agreement, bypassing the concerns raised by the global community. Despite the agreement being in place for the past six years, not a single Rohingya individual has been repatriated to Myanmar.
Naomi also pointed out the fact that when the US was interfering in the electoral process during the run-up to the January polls, India stood by Hasina.
According to the US and some other Western powers, the elections not being held under a caretaker government raises the question of legitimacy of the whole process. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had demanded the installation of a caretaker government ahead of the elections which Hasina had not acceded to.
The BNP then decided to boycott the elections leaving the way clear for an Awami League victory. However, India all along staunchly maintained that the elections are a completely internal matter of Bangladesh.
Coming back to China, Naomi, however, said that there is a strong lobby in Bangladesh that believes that Dhaka should be more pro-China as it would garner more economic and military benefits.
"This lobby group is very strong and comprises politicians, academics, people within the military and businessmen,” she said. “China has a strong connection with this group.” However, Naomi said, as long as Hasina is in power, India’s strategic and security interests in the region will not be compromised. “In terms of China, the threshold has been limited to economic ties only,” she said. “Question is: what happens if Hasina is not in power?"
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