New Delhi: With more than 9 crore early votes polled in already through in-person and postal ballots, United States is set to witness one of the highest voter turnouts in decades on November 3rd. But it is also one of the most bitterly contested polarising elections with fears of street violence predicted by several organisations including the International Crisis Group.
“There are great tension and anxiety especially among Democratic Party voters or independents that are supporting Joe Biden or even among some of the prominent Republicans who have come out in favour of the contender,” says Steven Herman, the White House Bureau Chief for Voice of America (VOA). “There are concerns for example in states like Michigan whether people might show up with guns and display them and that could be an intimidating effect. But really no indications that people are being dampened in their enthusiasm to go out and vote by something like that. It is more about the fears of Corona Virus really that have caused hesitations and one of the reasons why people have sent in their ballots early,” adds Steven Herman.
Ahead of the crucial polls, while the White House is being fenced to make it unscalable as per reports, commercial private buildings too in Washington DC are bracing up for any physical damage. Speaking to Senior Journalist Smita Sharma from DC, Herman added, “There is a concern that we could see some incidents probably not on Tuesday night but rather on Wednesday night when we have a clear picture of what may be happening. That people could take to the streets. It just takes a few people to really incite and go off on their own as we have seen in previous demonstrations this year to cause trouble both from the extreme left and the extreme right.”
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“Along the streets of Washington DC around the White House, we do see a lot of boarding up going on to prevent the sort of smashing of windows and setting of fires that we saw earlier this year with demonstrations. A lot of precautions are being taken. But there is no indication that we are going to see some sort of mass civil uprising in the days ahead. But any incident anywhere will be spotlighted,” adds Herman further underlining that a lot will depend on election results and the margin with which either contestant wins.
“The results will depend on how accurate the polling has been. If Joe Biden is able to pick up 270 electoral college votes without Pennsylvania then much of the drama is over. Although President Trump has indicated that he is going to go court immediately to challenge results. He believes we should have the results on the evening of Election Day. although it has been an exception rather than the case in much of American election history,” said Herman who has tracked American elections and politics closely for many years. Election results or clear projections are expected by 4th November morning US time but could wind up in a legal battle like the bitter George Bush versus Al Gore contest in 2000. However, it is important to watch organisations like Associated Press to announce the winner which will then be announced by most other news channels.
So far Joe Biden has held a significant consistent lead in national polls which has narrowed to single digit in the last few days of the campaign. But pollsters and pundits are cautious with shadows of the 2016 surveys still looming large that predicted a win for Hillary Clinton. The battleground states including the ones in the industrial Midwest that Trump managed to snatch away from Clinton four years ago in a surprise victory will be crucial this time too. And not surpassingly both candidates are focusing on the swing states before curtains come down on polling.
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“Whether Biden is ahead by 7% or 4% in national polls, this all really boils down to a few states and that’s where candidates themselves have been putting their focus on. Florida is of course seen as a must-win for Trump. That is a path to victory for Biden if he does not take Florida. Both see Pennsylvania as absolutely key. On Monday President is making two appearances of out his five in the state of Michigan although Biden is seen as about 10 per cent ahead in that battleground state. So why is the President focusing on the state of Michigan? Perhaps they have their own polling showing the lead as soft. But that is a state that was absolutely key to Donald Trump’s surprise victory four years ago because the polls all showed Hillary Clinton ahead just before the 2016 elections,” says Herman.
The senior American Journalist also stressed that the last-minute campaign is to ensure the committed voters make it to the voting booths in person on Tuesday. “There is virtually no one undecided in these elections. Opinions are baked in strongly. The real reason why we are seeing these appearances by the candidates in these last hours. President Trump won’t even be back in the White House until early Tuesday morning. Sunday he was doing a rally past midnight in Florida, It is all about people that have committed and have not voted to ensure that they go to the polls on Tuesday, that is what it is all about right now. It is not about changing minds.It is about generating enough enthusiasm to actually push people to go out and vote in person on Tuesday,” said Herman.
