Geneva : The head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Tuesday said that a no-deal Brexit would change the trade relationship between the EU and UK "significantly". Speaking in Geneva, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo also predicted a rise in trade and service costs as a result of a no-deal Brexit.
Azevedo said the sooner there was clarity about the terms of the divorce and future relationship the better, although he said an extension was preferable to a no-deal Brexit.
Meanwhile, the WTO has cut its forecast for trade growth this year by more than a percentage point to 2.6 percent, due to an economic slowdown and amid a trade conflict between the United States and China.
The downgrade - from 3.7 percent forecast issued in September - reflects how quickly the prospects for global business are fading as, among other things, the US and China struggle to agree on how to lift tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars-worth of trade. "With trade tensions running high, no one should be surprised by this outlook", Azevedo said. Beyond the trade war, the WTO has cited weaker economic growth in North America, Europe and Asia - largely as the effect of fiscal stimulus by the Trump administration wears off.
It noted a "phase-out" of monetary stimulus in Europe and China's efforts to shift its economy away from its traditional reliance on manufacturing and investment toward services and consumption. In 2018, trade grew by just 3 percent - far below the WTO's forecast for 3.9 percent, which had itself been downgraded last year. And next year, the Geneva-based trade body expects only a small uptick in trade growth by volume next year, to 3 percent.The WTO oversees international trade rules and settles disputes between countries.
Also read : WTO chief stresses urgency of easing trade tensions
The Trump administration has also been critical of the WTO, accusing it of being "unfair" with the United States. The US has slowly squeezed the WTO by blocking appointments to its dispute settlement group, the Appellate Body, which could in December fall below the minimum number of members required.
Azevedo pointed to the "fundamental importance of the rules-based trading system", saying that its weakening would "be an historic mistake with repercussions for jobs, growth and stability around the world".
