Hyderabad: Today we are literally experiencing the hitherto unexperienced.
The globalised world is fighting against an invisible enemy, the SARS-COV2 virus causing the COVID-19 disease. The severity and alarming rate of spread of this disease, which originated in China, has led the World Health Organisation to declare it as a Pandemic on March 11.
The COVID-19 virus is infecting people in geometric progression, killing people, overwhelming the health infrastructure of countries across the world and even changing the conventional definition of globalisation.
Production has stopped, export-import has been curtailed, people are being laid off. The supply chain is disrupted, and the world economy is undergoing a paradigm shift.
Quite naturally, the disaster of this pandemic is projected to be very high and multifaceted for populous countries like India. In this present scenario, we need to focus on the fate of the Indian labourers as they migrate back home and that ‘Reverse Migration’.
Traditional migration theories
Traditional migration theories suggest that labour migrates from one place to another in search of work and a higher wage. This migration mostly occurs from the agricultural sector to informal and small business sectors across states. These workers, primarily males, are absorbed in construction, leather goods making, small electrical equipment, intermediate chemical products, dyes and paints, ornament making, diamond cutting, etc. They also work as porters and plumbers.
The migrant females work as maids in households. If we take the case of West Bengal, one of the major eastern states, where labour migration is a big issue, we will see that labour of this state is no exception. They migrate to other states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu (Chennai), Delhi, Kerala, Gujarat and others, in search of work. They have sector-specific demand and get absorbed in other states.
However, the fear of being infected by COVID-19 and production shutdown due to the nationwide lockdown is forcing them to migrate back to their homes. Thus, reverse migration in the current scenario has been triggered by both financial and psychological chargers. The question now arises is whether such a phenomenon is temporary or not.
The Bengal case study
To answer this, again we will look back to a unique experience of West Bengal. Let us travel twenty years back to a village in that state called Ranguniya near Jharkhand border on the fertile banks of Subarnarekha. This village was agrarian, like most villages of West Bengal. It produced rice, vegetables and pulses in plenty to meet domestic needs. The farmers could cater to the local market and sell the surplus in other markets too.
However, the next generation of farmers did not find it profitable to take up agriculture as their profession. In search of a higher wage, they moved from Ranguniya to large cities in India. They earned well, and with their savings, they could give their family back home a good life. In twenty years, their mud houses turned to concrete, and the lifestyle of the families changed for good.
However, in these twenty years, the pattern of cultivation in this village also took several turns. First, the land was no longer cultivated by the family members who owned the land. The land was given to marginal or rented farmers for cultivation. In return, the landowner received one-third of the produced output. Thus, over time, a multi-crop land was gradually converted to a single-crop land.
The cropping pattern changed, and the fundamental agrarian nature of the village got lost in the process. Most families started depending on the liquid cash that came from their family members who worked as labourers in other states.
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Now, having lost their jobs in this emergency situation (post-COVID19 outbreak), the migrated members of the families are heading back to their villages. The glaring factor which stares at us now is regarding their fate and the villages of West Bengal, which are similar to that of Ranguniya.
At these times conventional economic theories fail to provide a concrete answer. However, certain issues are evident. Firstly, the sectors in which these labourers worked were mostly informal and/or very small scale in nature.
Lockdown came as a severe blow to these sectors. With production shut down, it is very difficult to predict the time by which these sectors adapt and start producing. The labourers are likely to remain unemployed in the interim.
Secondly, if these labourers stay back in West Bengal, any short-term effect on agriculture is unlikely. At this time seasonal crops have already been harvested and marketed. Vegetables and some cash crops of the state have already been sown. Farmers are awaiting the harvest period. So, reverse migration of labourers is unlikely to impact the cycle.
But, such reverse migration is likely to have a long-term impact on agriculture in terms of disguised unemployment and lower productivity. It should be noted that these migrated workers have lost their skills in agriculture over this time. It is unlikely that these workers will positively contribute to agriculture any more. However, there is a brighter side.
The operational cost of producing crops in West Bengal is quite high, which is often attributed to wage per labour in land. An increased supply of labour (if absorbed in agricultural production) might decrease this wage and hence, reduce operational costs.
When reverse migration spills over, becomes cross-country
Most importantly, we cannot negate that we live in interconnected economies. With the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a worldwide shutdown. The sectors in which many of the labourers worked, produced inputs to products for India’s export basket. The adjustments of the world economy, post-COVID 19, and the ripple effect in international relations are likely to determine the fate of the labourers.
It is important to note that when labourers from West Bengal and other Eastern states migrated to Kerala, Karnataka, Delhi, Maharashtra, etc. A large chunk of the locals in those states, in turn, migrated to Middle-East countries. This created a vacuum, which absorbed the migrated workers from Eastern India.
Now, this pandemic affecting the Middle-East countries as well, reverse migration from Middle-East to India is also expected. This is a matter of grave concern putting a big question mark on the future employability of the migrated workers from the Eastern states.
Stress on rural economy and the Government
It is evident that the rural economy will be distressed, the social fabric will be disrupted because of family feuds and resistances impacting production and supply negatively. This might break the self-sustaining nature of agriculture. Thus, a powerful role of the government is desirable to handle the situation.
The Government of India has already taken up some vital policy measures like wage per person under MNREGA (100 days work) scheme, which has been increased from Rs 182 to Rs 202 per day. Such a policy is likely to benefit five crore families. An additional of Rs 2,000 will also be given to each worker for the next three months.
To date, an average of only 45 days of work have been made available to job cardholders. If the Centre takes necessary and robust actions to implement the scheme strictly to 100 days of work, then the problem of the reversely migrated labourers might decrease to some extent.
The central government has also announced a direct transfer of Rs 6,000 annually to 8.69 crore farmers under the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme to tackle adversities. Though such subsidies are welcome to control short-term problems, schemes to provide employment opportunities for the labourers who stand nowhere in the present scenario, have to be considered.
What we expect and pray to be temporary, might not be so. Rural distress is likely to grow, and only strong government policies to directly cater to the needs of the people and implementation of the same may show us some light of hope.
(Written by Maitri Ghosh. She is an Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Bethune College, Kolkata.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat and ETV Bharat does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
