Hyderabad(Telangana): In an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat's Khursheed Wani, senior defence expert Vikram Jit Singh spoke about warfare in high altitude regions, Chinese strategic rethink for South Asia and possible options after the confrontation in Galwan Valley
The Chinese military coercion in Galwan Valley of Ladakh is manifest of the country's rescripting of geo-strategic vision for South Asia where India has been elevated from rival to enemy. The Chinese have assessed the quantum of possible decline on its economic and political relationship with India before entering into a confrontation.
This was stated by senior journalist and defence expert Vikram Jit Singh in an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat. Mr Singh who has covered the 1999 Kargil war and Kashmir insurgency is an expert on South Asian military affairs.
He said there has been 'strategic misread' of Chinese intention but the politico-military leadership was not able to comprehend it.
"The past intrusions were localised and Chinese withdrew activities after negotiations. This time, the intrusions were not localised but multiple. The buildup in rear areas was massive," he said.
He added, "India's changed geo-political and geo-strategic stance has led China to review its geo-strategic vision for south Asia. Chinese vision on land dispute has changed vis a vis India. They are no longer willing to negotiate or withdraw."
"There is a vast difference in the military power between China and India, especially in non-conventional domains of cruise and ballistic missile capability. They are conducting battle across six domains. Beyond land, air and sea, they are in virtual space," he said.
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The incursion in Ladakh region has led to Siachinization of the Line of Actual Control warranting massive troops build up in the vast area.
"We have a very stressed military line now. We have more than a division in eastern Ladakh and it would require massive deployment from eastern Ladakh through Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh," he said.
"It seems like two big tectonic plates in south Asia are clashing. The clash is going to produce a lot of tremors with epicter in Eastern Ladakh," he said.
He said the Chinese had an upper hand in Ladakh because they started in winter. They have 2 lac troops in Tibetan autonomous region, doing regular exercises since Doklum happened in 2017.
One of the main factors for China's rethink on geo-strategic situation in South Asia was the change in the constitutional status of Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019.
"We missed out and underestimated Chinese statements at that time. They were very emphatic and clear," he said. He referred to Chinese reactions on the Balakote strike and Indian stance on the status of Gilgit Baltistan region.
Asked why the troops went unarmed to clash with Chinese in Galwan Valley he referred to the 1996 agreement between China and India in maintaining peace and tranquility along the LAC. "According to the agreement, it requires five-day advance notice for the use of explosives, even for road development purposes, within two kilometers," he added.
He said the Indian troops were reckoned the best high altitude troops in the world having captured Siachen Glacier in 1984 and held back Kargil heights in 1994. He said at the height of 15,700 feet above sea level, in a terrain bereft of trees, the troops have to be well acclimatized.
"Indian military-political leadership realises that Chinese do not want war at the moment but they are also not going to back off from the war. Chinese seem determined to hold the territory that they have taken over control," he said.
He said a counter incursion could have been done in May when the incursion was first discovered. "If India goes for kinetic action, it would lead to escalation and Chinese would not like to limit it from that point," he said.
He said the situation has left the Narendra Modi led government in a tough situation. "The mood in India is becoming aggressive about China. Some of the bodies have been mutilated," Singh said.
