Hyderabad: Even as the world is engaged in a battle against the coronavirus and we are attempting to come to grips with an uncertain situation, there is one region in South Asia that seems unaffected. The bloody war between the Indian and Pakistani armies along the Line of Control (LOC) rages on. According to Indian media reports, there were 411 ceasefire violations in March, 50 percent more than the corresponding period last year, and more than double the figures for 2018.
On 5th April, five terrorists attempting to infiltrate in the Keran Sector were gunned down and five special forces soldiers martyred in the operation. Five days later, the Indian Army released a video that showed artillery strikes on terrorists launchpads and ammunition dumps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Two days later, Pakistan Army's firing in the same sector killed three Indian civilians and injured seven others. Among the dead was an 8-year-old child.
Some obvious questions are raised during this time. With both India and Pakistan dealing with a crisis of monumental proportion, can we not have a period of peace along the border? Should we not divert our energies to fighting a common enemy rather than each other? The answer to both questions is a 'Yes,' but the unfortunate reality is that the moral dimensions do not always dictate national decisions.
Firing along the LOC is often framed in very simplistic terms by the official spokespersons of both armies. The standard statements given out are that there was “unprovoked firing” by the other side that has been “strongly responded” to. The reality is somewhat different. Ceasefire violations are not merely a tit-for-tat spat, but a manifestation of the larger security situation along the LOC.
Both sides generally respected the 2003 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan till 2012. 2013 began with an attack on an Indian patrol along the LOC in which the body of a soldier, Lance Naik Hemraj, was mutilated. Incidents of the planting of mines and IEDs along the LOC shot up. In August, five soldiers of an ambush party were killed in the Poonch sector by a Pakistani Border Action Team.
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With deterioration in the overall security situation, tensions flared up, and the LOC erupted. Cross-border firing reached such a crescendo that the Director Generals of Military Operations of both sides agreed for a face-to-face meeting for the first time in 14 years. Although there was an agreement to deescalate the situation, there was little impact on the ground, and ceasefire violations increased in 2014.
I am giving the example of 2013 to suggest that it would be naïve to expect that a verbal acceptance by both sides to uphold the 2003 agreement, even if that were to take place hypothetically, could by itself translate to a calming of the border. For any real breakthrough to happen, Pakistan will have to control infiltration from their side. If infiltration continues and Indian soldiers are martyred along the LOC, there can be no peace.
This will require a significant attitude change by the Pakistani 'deep state' towards Kashmir, and the enduring desire to be seen as standing up to a perceived Indian hegemony in the region. There comes a time when realism must take precedence over hopes that have been nurtured over time but have led to no success. It is often said that hope is not a strategy, and it is time that the Pakistan Army accepts this.
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The decisions taken by the Indian government in August 2019 concerning Jammu and Kashmir have flattened the India-Pakistan-Kashmir triangle and removed Pakistan from the equation. Article 370 is a provision of the Indian Constitution, not a bilateral issue, and complaints about it in international forums will find only minimal support. The larger world community has already accepted India’s stance.
Questions can be raised about the government’s handling of the Kashmir issue, but again these are our own internal matters, and Pakistan can play no constructive role. Aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, fears of identity dilution, economic development, and meeting aspirations of the youth are issues that can only be addressed by the Indian state.
After the Kargil conflict, there was some introspection within Pakistan whether the country should have gone down this perilous path. A veteran diplomat, Shahid M. Amin, wrote that "the country (should) become ruthlessly realistic about its limitations and priorities. First and foremost, Pakistan’s survival must precede everything else, including our attachment to the Kashmir cause.” Whether the ongoing battle with the coronavirus will trigger a similar soul-searching in Pakistan remains to be seen.
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It could appear that I have laid all the responsibility for maintaining calm along the LOC at the doorstep of the Pakistan Army, but that is the reality. The Indian Army does have an aggressive posture on the border, but it is primary to deter infiltration through a strategy of punishment. The ball for dampening the heat on the LOC is firmly in Pakistan’s court. However, India should review its policy of 'no talks' and respond positively to any sincere overtures, if Pakistan makes them. Statesmanship, as shown by Prime Minister Modi in leading the SAARC initiatives against COVID-19, is the need of the hour.
Both countries profess sympathy for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, but the civilians on both sides of the border are the biggest sufferers in the ongoing firing. In these times, it is almost obligatory for India and Pakistan to not add to the current humanitarian crisis. However, for any confidence-building measure to succeed, we have to start by developing a certain level of confidence between the two parties. Building that bridge will require past assumptions to be abandoned. We could take heed to Isaac Asimov’s advice – “Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in awhile, or the light won't come in."
