Year-ender 2023: BJP's 3-2 scoreline amps up Mission 2024 prospects

2023 saw BJP registering victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as 'Modi ki guarantee' struck the chords of electors, who voted overwhelmingly for the saffron party. While Congress found a silver lining in Telangana and Karnataka, BJP ended the year with a confidence-boosting hat trick of wins perfectly setting up the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. As 2023 fades away, ETV Bharat's Atonu Choudhurri sums up the political gains and losses the year witnessed.

Hyderabad: BJP's poll sweeps in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh at the end of 2023 have set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections providing the ruling party at the Centre a clear edge.

Silver linings for Congress:

Telangana and Karnataka were the silver linings for Congress in 2023 which took heart from the victories in the Southern states. With three wins in crucial three states, the BJP has set a poignant narrative of its 'invincibility' in the Hindi belt which holds the key to the party's winning Lok Sabha polls next year. Overall 'Modi ki guarantee' resonated with electors who voted overwhelmingly for the BJP, which appeared on the backfoot at least impressionwise given the hype which was created with the formation of the INDIA alliance and the party's loss in May 2023 Karnataka elections.

BJP retains power in Madhya Pradesh:

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP got 163 seats with a gain of 54 seats leaving Congress languishing at 66 seats. This year the rival party's seat number was reduced by 48 seats in The state. 'Jai-Veeru', the combination of Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath, found themselves out in the cold having failed to steer their party to trounce the Shivraj Singh-led BJP government. The Congress's defeat not only came as its loss but also political oblivion of the two veteran politicians in the party rank in the state.

The poll drubbing not only marked humiliation but pitted the Congress against the uphill task of scouting for alternative leadership at a time when Jyotiraditya Scindia was able to lure away Congress's youth leaders into the BJP fold. Scindis's 'charm offensive' which has a fervent appeal among voters, especially youths, largely contributed to the swing of votes in favour of BJP. 'Mama' as Shivraj Singh Chouhan is known, capitalised on the women-centric welfare scheme Ladli Behna, which became an instant hit.

BJP wrests power from Congress in Rajasthan:

It was Shivraj Singh's match-winning knock and Scindia's cameo that virtually left Kamal Nath and Digvijaya retired hurt. If Madhya Pradesh mandate helped the BJP to negate anti-incumbency, the sterling performance in Rajasthan polls validated the powerful narrative of 'Modi ki guarantee' built around BJP's welfare promise, which found takers in a state where anti-incumbency proved nemesis of Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government. The BJP, which garnered 115 seats in Rajasthan with an increase of 42 seats denied faction-ridden Ashok Gehlot-led Congress a chance to come back to power. The seat tally of Congress, which bagged 69 seats, was 30 less than the previous elections.

Congress’s welfare promises could hardly convince voters. Statistics show massive gains for the BJP in crucial five eastern Rajasthan districts where seat numbers went up from just one to 13. On the other hand, the Congress suffered a loss. The party's seat tally was reduced to eight from twenty. The Congress Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) projection also failed to pay dividends. Like Madhya Pradesh, in Rajasthan too the party's aggressive poll campaign revolving around promises of 'achhe din' found takers among youth, women and elderly male voters. Disgruntled Sachin Pilot's raising of issues like graft and paper leaks provided ammo to the BJP putting the Congress on the backburner.

BJP in power in Chhattisgarh too as Congress faces defeat:

Chhattisgarh's defeat came as a real blow to Congress and a morale booster for the BJP which won 54 seats leaving the rival party tottering at 35 seats. The BJP's gain of seats extended to 39 while Congress lost 33 seats this time. The comparison of statistics from previous polls shows a huge gain for the BJP and a loss for Congress which was hardly expecting defeat. A close finish, probably, but not a crushing defeat. The loss of Zoram Thanga-led Mizo National Front Zoramthanga at the hands of Lalduhoma-led ZPM which won 27 seats is a setback for the regional party, which is a part of NDA. This time, MNF got only 10 seats.

Modi's assurance on crackdown on corruption allegations again convinced electorates. "They didn't even spare Mahadev" - a reference to the Mahadev app betting scam - struck the chord of voters. The Bhupesh Baghel Congress government, which was clueless to quell protests over recruitment irregularities, including the Dalit stir that went viral, was made to swallow the defeat when exit polls predicted a victory for the party. Right after victories in major states, Modi was quick to comment that people have the impression that the party's hat-trick in the states is a guarantee of hat-trick in the Lok Sabha polls.

Winning 156 seats for the BJP means a two-thirds majority in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly, the second largest state in terms of Lok Sabha segments after Uttar Pradesh. In Telangana where the Congress won 64 seats in the 119-member assembly, was never in the reckoning of the BJP. For Congress, reducing the BRS tally to 39 seats nonetheless is a statement but it can hardly have a bearing as far as giving a dent to BJP's Lok Sabha prospects. Union Minister Anurag Thakur put BJP's poll sweeps as a testament to the "unbreakable connect" Prime Minister Narendra Modi has with the people.

Thumbs up for the BJP:

From the perspective of realpolitik, the poll results indicate a thumbs-up of voters for the BJP and the opposite for the Congress. The fact that Modi’s popularity remains intact despite the opposition campaign continues to fuel BJP's dominance. A Mood of the Nation poll from top media houses predicted the victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coming to power in Lok Sabha polls indicating the possibility of a reduced seat tally in 2014. The BJP-led NDA has a leader like Narendra Modi while INDIA appears leaderless, a factor that may not be an ideal situation to fight against its rival coalition. Another factor like disagreement on seat-sharing appears to be a discomfort zone for the INDIA alliance. These two major factors coupled with several other minor factors come into account as the Opposition bloc gears for a see-saw battle in 2014.

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