Hyderabad: The Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (ETP-2024) report by the IEA provides an analysis of the future of clean energy technology manufacturing and international trade. It focuses on six key technologies -- EVs, batteries, solar PV, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolysers -- which account for around half of global clean energy investments, with a market size of over $700 billion.
The report assesses the economic opportunities that the clean, modern energy economy is generating and how investment in manufacturing clean energy technologies and materials is reshaping global trade flows. The ETP-2024 also considers the need to build secure and resilient supply chains for the clean energy transition.
Regional Focus
India: Manufacturing investments have grown fivefold since 2020, with India’s global share rising from 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent. Through initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme, India aims to become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035.
China: Leading in low-cost manufacturing for all six technologies, China's facilities operate at costs 25-95 per cent lower than those in the US and Europe. China’s clean technology exports are expected to balance its fossil fuel imports around 2050 under current policies and by 2035 with stronger climate policies.
Key Highlights of the Report
- The global market for clean energy technologies has expanded fourfold since 2015, exceeding USD 700 billion in 2023. This market could reach over USD 2 trillion by 2035, comparable to the global crude oil market.
- Global trade in these technologies is set to triple in a decade, potentially reaching USD 575 billion, 50 per cent larger than today’s natural gas trade.
- China is expected to remain the world’s clean energy manufacturing powerhouse, with projected exports surpassing USD 340 billion by 2035.
- India’s Transformation: Under rapid transition scenarios, India could shift from net importer to exporter by 2035, potentially generating USD 30 billion in clean tech exports and reducing its fossil fuel import bill by 20 per cent.
Opportunities for Emerging Markets
- Latin America & Brazil: Favorable conditions for wind turbine manufacturing could increase exports sixfold by 2035.
- Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa: Currently contributing less than 5 per cent of global cleantech value, these regions have growth potential, as identified through a country-by-country assessment of 60+ indicators.
Trade and Energy Security: Clean energy goods are expected to enhance energy resilience, as a single container ship filled with solar PV modules could match the electricity from 50 large LNG tankers or over 100 coal shipments. Today, around 50 per cent of maritime trade in clean energy tech flows through the Strait of Malacca, more than double the volume of fossil fuel trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Future Outlook: North Africa is poised to become a key player in EV manufacturing, driven by favourable conditions.
