By Kasturi Ray
June 10, 2024, marked a watershed moment for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the party that ruled Odisha under the leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik (77) for over two decades, five terms to be precise.
Reduced to 51 seats in a house of 147, the party’s fall from grace was unceremonious. Revered and admired as the shrewdest politician with a suave personality, Naveen likely was the last one to have imagined the catastrophic loss. It is a different story altogether that, as the ace politician he is, he accepted the mandate with humility.
However, the BJD’s collapse did not occur overnight; it was the culmination of several long-brewing issues. Two major factors, along with several smaller ones, led to this dramatic downfall. First, Naveen’s reluctance to act decisively, even as cracks within the party widened and discontent simmered at the grassroots, played a critical role. The signs were evident for months if not years, but the chief minister remained silent as the ground beneath the BJD’s feet began to shift, eventually leading to its collapse.
The second—and perhaps most decisive—factor was the controversial ‘Pandian Factor.’ The transition of V.K. Pandian, Naveen’s trusted bureaucrat-turned-political aide, into the arena of active politics became a polarizing issue. His entry into the political spotlight alienated several senior leaders, deepened internal rifts, and ultimately proved to be the final nail in the BJD’s coffin.
Naveen Factor
Naveen was not just another Odia but the son of Biju Patnaik and the fountainhead of the party. As the seasoned politician he was, it was not difficult for him to feel the pulse or gauge the simmering discontent among the electorate, as much as the leaders of his party. But the damage had already been done, spanning years. And the seeds were sown much ahead of 2024.
The fact that Naveen contested from a second seat in Kantabanji, Balangir, made the despondency of the party strategists evident. But this move boomeranged. The sitting CM lost to a farmer, Laxman Bagh from the BJP, by 16,344 votes. Even in his home constituency, Hinjili, his victory margin was reduced to 4,636 votes from his nearest rival.
Rising Anti-Incumbency
For years, Naveen’s charisma shielded the BJD from anti-incumbency. By 2024, however, his health condition, advancing age, and limited public appearances turned into vulnerabilities. Once an active campaigner, Patnaik’s absence from the election trail in 2024 probably sent a signal of detachment, thus weakening voter confidence.
Instead of campaigning with the Chief Minister, voters were left with Pandian as the de facto leader. Pandian’s frequent helicopter rides became an eyesore for many. This sudden shift in attention created a leadership void among the masses. The absence of Naveen’s personal touch—a hallmark of his previous campaigns—gave rise to anti-incumbency sentiments, particularly among rural voters.
The Pandian Factor
Vairab Kartikeyan Pandian or VK took voluntary retirement to join the BJD. The meteoric rise of VK, a bureaucrat-turned-politician and Naveen Patnaik’s most trusted lieutenant, made him the face of governance and decision-making. His growing control alienated many within the party and its support base. From determining electoral candidates to micromanaging the administration, Pandian’s influence overshadowed elected representatives, fostering resentment among senior leaders.
November 16, 2023, when he took VRS and joined the party, cemented his position and marked a shift in the party dynamics.
Not only district-level leaders, ministers, and MLAs, but even grassroots workers, especially in rural areas, felt disconnected from a party they once considered their own. Prominent leaders like Pradeep Panigrahy, Sameer Dash, and Amar Satapathy felt sidelined while Pandian took centre-stage in campaigns. Political analysts say he subtly positioned himself as the heir to Naveen, and thus began the era of mistrust and discontent, fracturing the party over the years. So much so that most ministers were rendered powerless in the power corridors of the Secretariat.
Internal Strife and Dissatisfaction Among the Rank and File
Under Pandian’s dominance. The ticket distribution process for the 2024 elections became chaotic, with experienced leaders being denied tickets in favour of newcomers or bureaucrat-backed candidates. This dissatisfaction led to public spats and defections, with senior leaders like Amar Satapathy being pushed to the back burner, while a lesser politically inclined actress was fielded in his place. Infighting became particularly visible in Ganjam, where leaders like Ranjita Sahoo and Latika Pradhan, both from the BJD, clashed openly as one contested the MP seat and the other the MLA seat. Such internal divisions eroded the party’s organizational strength, leaving its campaign fractured and disjointed.
Over the years, the BJD’s grassroots network had been its backbone, ensuring its electoral dominance. However, by 2024, cracks began to appear. Local workers and leaders, frustrated by the lack of support and recognition, began distancing themselves from the party. This disintegration of the party’s base was evident in rural areas, where voters shifted their allegiance to opposition parties that appeared more accessible and responsive.
The Pradeep Panigrahi Factor
The defection of Pradeep Panigrahi, once a close ally of Naveen Patnaik, dealt a severe blow to the BJD, particularly in Ganjam. After being ousted from the party and arrested in a politically charged case, Panigrahi joined the BJP and became a vocal critic of the BJD. Panigrahi’s influence in Ganjam, coupled with his effective mobilization of voters, turned the district—a traditional BJD stronghold—into a BJP bastion. In a shocking turn, the BJP won 11 out of 14 seats in Ganjam. Panigrahi’s ability to channel voter anger against the BJD’s perceived mismanagement highlighted the growing dissatisfaction, even in its safest constituencies.
Corruption Scandals and Public Distrust
The BJD’s image as a clean and efficient administration took a hit with a series of high-profile scandals. Cases like the Mamita Meher murder, involving former minister Dibya Shankar Mishra, and the Pari murder case, linked to Panchayati Raj Minister Arun Sahoo, dominated headlines and fueled public outrage. Though none of the leaders faced action or were legally implicated, the lack of action from the BJD supremo, Naveen, created public discontent. Despite widespread calls for accountability, the BJD’s inaction allowed the opposition to frame it as a party protecting corrupt leaders. These scandals became rallying points for opposition parties to question the BJD’s moral authority.
Role of Pranab Prakash Das, His Defeat
The role of leaders like Pranab Prakash Das further complicated the BJD’s position. Once a key figure in the party, his closeness to Naveen proved fatal for him. Perceived as a threat, he was strategically moved to contest from Sambalpur—a BJP stronghold—against heavyweight Dharmendra Pradhan. Similarly, his mother, fielded from Korei, lost decisively, marking the end of the Das family's political dominance. Korei was his father Ashok Das’s constituency who was Biju Patnaik's most trusted lieutenant.
Advantage BJP with 'Odia Asmita' Campaign
While the BJP had previously struggled to gain a foothold in Odisha, 2024 marked a turning point. Its campaign, anchored around “Odia Asmita” (Odia pride), resonated deeply with voters. Targeting VK, who happens to be from Tamil Nadu, the BJP effectively used the dart at the influence he wielded over and above any Odia politicians. The saffron party, during campaigns, brought up issues like Odia officers, both IAS and IPS, being sent to faraway postings while those in Bhubaneswar given lesser important departments to handle. Besides, the national party also raised the issue of non-Odia firms awarded major project tenders and found allegedly involved in corrupt dealings with the state government.
The BJP also indirectly hinted at Naveen's inability to speak or write in Odia after five terms in office. This narrative of cultural disconnect struck a chord with both urban and rural voters. The BJP tapped into regional pride, portraying itself as a party committed to Odisha’s identity and aspirations. This helped the BJP consolidate its position as a viable alternative.
The cumulative effect of internal dissension, defections, and sidelining of senior leaders was evident in the election results. Like the famous Kishore Kumar song, "yeh jo public hai, yeh sab jaanti hai," Odisha natives who had witnessed 24 years of BJD rule, knew it all. The machinations, the calculations, the changing dynamics, and the power games. For them, change seemed the only constant. The saffron wave swept across the state, and the rest is history.
More 2024 Yearenders
