Chennai (Tamil Nadu) : Battle lines are drawn in Tamil Nadu, which will vote on April 19 in the current parliamentary elections. Alliances are almost finalised. While DMK has confirmed its alliance and is contesting in 21 constituencies, BJP and AIADMK have severed their ties and are contesting separately with the saffron party entering a deal with PMK and other parties.
DMK is contesting the Erode and Coimbatore constituencies in Kongu region to show its strength the seats that belong to AIADMK leader Edappadi Palaniswami and BJP state chief Annamalai. DMK is also contesting from Perambalur constituency, which the BJP-led NDA alliance has allotted to Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK).
As AIADMK and BJP are contesting separately, the TN political scene is all set to witness strong triangular fights and many surprises. They were in alliance during the last assembly elections. But BJP state leader Annamalai's interest in AIADMK waned before the Lok Sabha elections. Criticism of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa caused embarrassment to the alliance, and the AIADMK officially announced it was severing its alliance with the BJP last October.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AIADMK, BJP, PMK, DMDK and New Tamil Nadu formed a mega alliance. Although the BJP won at the national level, the alliance could win only Theni constituency in Tamil Nadu. In terms of vote bank, AIADMK won 18.7% votes in 20 constituencies in that election when O. Panneerselvam and Edappadi Palaniswami contested together in the traditional double leaf symbol. The PMK won 5.5 percent of the votes, the BJP 3.7 percent and the DMDK 2.2 percent.
In this election, there are splits and changes within AIADMK and among NDA allies. O. Panneerselvam, who rebelled in the AIADMK in the first phase, has been told by the High Court that he can no longer use the double leaf symbol. He is now in the BJP team. PMK, which was in talks with AIADMK till 2 days ago, has joined the BJP alliance. Both Ramadoss and Anbumani Ramadoss participated in the public meeting attended by Prime Minister Modi in Salem. Till now, DMDK has not declared its alliance position.
In this context, no other parties have joined the AIADMK alliance apart from Puthiya Thamilagam Krishnaswamy. As far as the northern districts are concerned, the PMK and the DMDK has a basic vote bank. PMK has Vanniyar caste-based voting. Late Vijayakanth, the founder of DMDK, had naturally strengthened the activities of his fan clubs in the northern districts from the very beginning. This is what gave Vijayakanth, a native of Madurai, the courage to compete in Vriddhachalam and Rishivantiyam. In the 2021 Legislative Assembly elections, it cannot be forgotten that AMMK(TTV Dinakaran) and DMDK alliance candidates split votes in more than 20 constituencies and gave a jolt to AIADMK.
Basically, the PMK has accepted the leadership of the BJP, which has comparatively a smaller voter base in Tamil Nadu. In the 2019 elections, PMK contested more seats than BJP. Despite, it has now come forward to contest in less or equal constituencies than the BJP. What has changed in the 2019 election and the 2024 election? How does the BJP think there is a situation to form a third alliance in Tamil Nadu? There is only one difference. Annamalai, who is the Tamil Nadu BJP chief, joined the BJP in 2020. With the feedback given by him, BJP top leadership has entered the field to test its strength in Tamil Nadu.
Annamalai lost in the 2021 assembly elections held when Annamalai was the vice-president of the Tamil Nadu BJP, and BJP's vote bank also decreased slightly. Annamalai believes that after taking charge as the BJP president, activities including the "En Man En Makkal" Yatra would have helped him reach out to the people. Though it initially ignored the AIADMK, the BJP national leadership sent a message to the AIADMK but some of the tough conditions put forward by Edappadi Palaniswami have pushed the BJP to decide not to form an alliance.
This time, the question is whether BJP will gain an upper hand over AIADMK or the other way round. During Jayalalithaa's tenure, AIADMK won 37 out of 39 constituencies in the 2014 parliamentary elections by contesting alone under the slogan "Modia Ladya (Modi Vs Lady)". Will Edappadi Palaniswami, who has become General Secretary like Jayalalithaa, prove that he has the same strength as Jayalalithaa? Or will Annamalai will lead BJP to make significant gains? This can be known only after the elections on June 4.
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