Mumbai: Maharashtra has geared up for the Assembly elections on November 20. Although the upcoming polls will seal the fate of all candidates, political experts believe that for the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray, it is a battle of survival.
Raj Thackeray's son Amit Thackeray is entering the election fray for the first time and his father is seen taking every effort to ensure his victory and at the same time, fighting hard to save his party. Raj Thackeray is doing his best to retain the existence of his party. This is because, as per the Election Commission norm if MNS gets less than 8 percent of the total votes this time, its recognition can be cancelled.
MNS needs 25 lakh votes in its favour:
According to Election Commission new norms, if a political party wants to retain its recognition, it is necessary to either bag 8 percent of the total votes or get three MLAs elected. If no MLA of a party is elected, then it should get 8 percent of the total votes. If this does not happen, the party's recognition may be in danger.
In 2009, a total of 13 MLAs were elected from MNS. However, in the subsequent two Assembly elections, MNS had to be satisfied with only one MLA. Even if the total voter turnout is taken into consideration, then it will be seen that the vote count is less than 8 percent.
This time, MNS has fielded a total of 123 candidates and needs 25 lakh votes. The total number of voters in Maharashtra is 9.7 crore and a voter turnout of 61.29 percent was registered in the Lok Sabha elections held a few months ago.
In the 2019 Assembly elections, the average voter turnout was 60 percent. If this average remains the same, there will be around 6 crore votes. Now, MNS needs to get 8 percent of these 6 crore votes. This means, the party needs 25 lakh votes this election.
Decline in votes:
The people of Maharashtra voted for Raj Thackeray in a massive manner in 2009. At that time, 13 MLAs of MNS were elected. However, the party could not maintain this success in the next elections as both 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections had one MNS MLA each.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, MNS got 16.65 lakh votes in Maharashtra while in 2019, it got 12,42,135 votes, depicting a dip in MNS's vote share.
Will Raj Thackeray succeed in retaining party's existence?
Even if we consider the 12,42,135 votes that MNS got in 2019, MNS will now have to cross the 25 lakh mark to retain its existence. For which, MNS will have to bag an additional 13 lakh votes. Now, out of the 123 candidates fielded by MNS in the election fray this time, it is believed that 45 candidates will witness a 'thorny battle'. The question that rises is whether the 45 candidates manage to bag 25 lakh votes for MNS.
MNS leader Bala Nandgaonkar said, "The people of the state are with Raj Thackeray and will reinstate their faith in MNS. Therefore, MNS will definitely cross the threshold of decisive votes."
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