Srinagar: Over the past decade, Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape has experienced profound changes, including the rise of numerous new political parties that reflect the region's shifting dynamics and aspirations. The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, coupled with subsequent developments such as the bifurcation into Union Territories and significant amendments to land laws, has dramatically altered the region's governance and political environment. These transformations have not only diversified political representation, but also intensified the challenges facing the region, impacting both its stability and future direction.
Rise of New Political Players
From 2019 to 2022, Jammu and Kashmir saw a notable rise in political engagement with the registration of new political parties with the Election Commission of India. This influx included the National Awami United Party, Aman aur Shanti Tehreek-e-Jammu and Kashmir, National Democratic Party, Voice of Labour Party, Haq Insaaf Party and the Jammu and Kashmir People's Movement. The Jammu and Kashmir People's Movement, founded in 2019 by former IAS officer Dr Shah Faesal, aimed to introduce a fresh perspective, but saw Faesal withdraw from politics in 2020.
In 2020, Syed Altaf Bukhari established the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party as a centrist alternative focused on advocating for peace, development and the restoration of statehood, which the region lost following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
Additionally, the Democratic Azad Party was launched on September 26, 2022, by former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad. Azad's departure from Congress marked a significant shift as he sought to address the specific challenges facing Jammu and Kashmir through an independent platform.
Key Events Shaping the Region
The abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, by the Centre was a watershed moment in the history of Jammu and Kashmir. This landmark decision revoked the special autonomous status that the region had enjoyed since its accession to India in 1947. The abrogation led to the immediate imposition of a communication blackout, during which telephone lines and internet services were suspended across the region.
Additionally, the Centre detained numerous political leaders and activists to prevent unrest and manage the fallout from the historic move. This action also resulted in the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, fundamentally altering the region's administrative and political landscape.
The aftermath of the Article 370 abrogation saw a significant shift in the security dynamics of Jammu and Kashmir. Militancy, which had previously been concentrated in the Kashmir Valley, began to spread to the Jammu region. This geographic shift in militancy was accompanied by an increase in violent incidents targeting security forces and civilians.
According to official reports, in the past three years, 119 security forces personnel have been killed in Jammu and Kashmir due to militant activities, with more than 40 per cent of these casualties occurring in the Jammu division. This spike in violence underscores the growing complexity of the security situation in the region.
Since 2021, the rise in militancy has resulted in a troubling increase in the number of security personnel casualties. At least 51 security forces personnel have been killed in various incidents linked to militancy in districts, including Poonch, Rajouri, Kathua, Reasi, Doda and Udhampur.
The spread of militant activities to these previously less-affected areas has posed new challenges for security operations and has heightened concerns about the potential for further escalation. The reorganisation of the region into Union Territories, coupled with the subsequent changes in political and security dynamics, has led to a period of heightened instability.
Amendments to Land Laws
On October 26, 2020, the Centre implemented significant amendments to the land laws in Jammu and Kashmir, marking a departure from the region's long-standing legal framework. The new laws ended the exclusive rights of local residents to own and purchase land, a privilege previously granted under Article 370, which had provided special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir.
Key amendments included changes to the Jammu and Kashmir Development Act of 1970 and the J&K Land Revenue Act of 1996, allowing non-residents to buy property in the region for the first time. This move was part of the broader effort to integrate Jammu and Kashmir more fully into the Indian Union following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.
The amendments sparked considerable debate and concern among local populations, who feared that the new laws would lead to demographic changes and the loss of cultural identity in the region. Despite these concerns, the Centre maintained that the changes were necessary to promote economic development and attract investment to Jammu and Kashmir. According to official data, as of April 2023, 185 people from outside the region had purchased land in Jammu and Kashmir.
Lieutenant Governor takes charge in J&K
The Lieutenant Governor (LG) of Jammu and Kashmir has played a crucial role in overseeing the region's administration, particularly following the historic changes that unfolded after the abrogation of Article 370. Article 370, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, was revoked on August 5, 2019, during the tenure of the then-Governor Satya Pal Malik. Since this significant shift, all administrative and governance decisions have been overseen by the Lieutenant Governor, reflecting the central government's direct control over the region.
Girish Chandra Murmu was the first Lieutenant Governor appointed to manage the newly reorganised Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, assuming office on October 31, 2019, and serving until August 6, 2020. His tenure marked the beginning of a new administrative era, with the LG taking over many responsibilities that were previously managed by the state government. Following Murmu's departure, Manoj Sinha was appointed as the Lieutenant Governor on August 7, 2020, continuing to navigate the region through its evolving political and administrative landscape.
Before the reorganisation, the last Governor of the erstwhile state was Satya Pal Malik, who served from August 2018 to October 30, 2019. Malik's tenure included the lead-up to the abrogation of Article 370, a decision that fundamentally altered the governance structure of the region. Since the transition to a Union Territory, the Lieutenant Governor has been at the helm of all major decisions, consolidating control and steering the administration through a period of profound change and adjustment.
Supreme Court Upholds Article 370 Abrogation
On December 11, 2023, the Supreme Court of India upheld the abrogation of Article 370, which had previously granted special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir. The verdict was delivered by a five-judge constitution bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, who ruled that the Centre's decision to revoke the article was constitutionally valid. This ruling came in response to several petitions filed by political parties, including the National Conference, the People’s Conference, and other groups, challenging the Centre's move in 2019.
The abrogation of Article 370 had been a contentious issue, as it led to the bifurcation of the former state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories--Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh--the Supreme Court's decision was seen as a significant endorsement of the Modi government's approach to integrating the region more closely with the rest of India. The court's judgment emphasised that the abrogation was carried out in accordance with the Indian Constitution and did not violate the principles of federalism or the rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. This ruling marked a major victory for the Centre, solidifying the changes implemented since August 2019. It also paved the way for the resumption of the political process in Jammu and Kashmir, with the Supreme Court directing the Election Commission of India to conduct Assembly polls in the region by September 30, 2024.
DDC Elections held In J&K
The District Development Council (DDC) elections in Jammu and Kashmir, held in late 2020 and early 2021, were a landmark event following the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into Union Territories. These elections were the first major democratic exercise in the region since the revocation of its Special Status. The DDC elections were conducted in eight phases, with over 50% voter turnout. The results saw the emergence of the Jammu and Kashmir People's Alliance (PAGD) as a major political force, though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also made significant gains, particularly in the Jammu region.
The establishment of DDCs was intended to decentralise governance and bring decision-making closer to the people. Each council, consisting of 14 members elected from each district, is responsible for planning and overseeing local development projects, providing a platform for grassroots political engagement. The elections were closely watched as a gauge of public sentiment post-Article 370.
Record Turnout in Lok Sabha Election 2024
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir saw a record voter turnout of 58.46%, the highest in the region in the past 35 years. This unprecedented participation resulted in a historic victory for Engineer Rashid, an independent candidate from North Kashmir's Baramulla constituency, who managed to unseat the traditional heavyweights.
On the other hand, the elections proved to be a significant setback for prominent regional leaders Mehbooba Mufti of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC). Mehbooba, contesting from South Kashmir's Anantnag constituency, faced a defeat, which many attribute to the region's disillusionment with her party's past alliance with the BJP. Similarly, Omar Abdullah, who had contested from the Baramulla constituency, lost to Engineer Rashid, marking a low point in his political career. Meanwhile, the BJP stayed away from contesting on Kashmir seats.
The Rise and Fall of the Gupkar Alliance
The People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), known as the Gupkar Alliance, was established on October 20, 2020, as a coalition of major political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, including the National Conference (NC), People's Democratic Party (PDP), and others. Formed in response to the Centre's abrogation of Article 370, the alliance aimed to restore the special autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir through constitutional, legal and political means. Named after the Gupkar Road in Srinagar, where the declaration was signed, the alliance quickly garnered public support, particularly after its success in the District Development Council (DDC) elections in December 2020.
Despite its early successes, the Gupkar Alliance faced significant challenges. Externally, the Centre's continued implementation of policies that countered the alliance's goals, such as changes to land laws and the reorganisation of Assembly constituencies, weakened its influence. Internally, the alliance struggled with ideological differences and strategic disagreements among its member parties. These internal rifts became more pronounced as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approached, leading to increasing tensions within the coalition.
The alliance's cohesion ultimately unravelled when the NC and PDP, the two largest parties within the coalition, decided to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently. This decision effectively marked the collapse of the Gupkar Alliance, as other member parties began to distance themselves from the coalition. The rise and fall of the Gupkar Alliance underscore the complexities of Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape where regional parties must navigate both internal discord and external pressures in the post-Article 370 era.
Delimitation and New Assembly Constituencies
The process of delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir has led to significant changes in the region's political landscape, particularly in the allocation of Assembly constituencies. In May 2022, the Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation Commission finalised and notified the new boundaries and names for Assembly constituencies. This was the first delimitation exercise in Jammu and Kashmir since its bifurcation into two Union Territories in 2019, following the abrogation of Article 370.
Under the new delimitation, the total number of Assembly seats increased from 83 to 90, with 47 seats allocated to Kashmir, while 43 were designated for Jammu. A notable change in this delimitation exercise was the introduction of reserved seats for marginalised communities; nine seats were reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST), with six of these in Jammu and three in Kashmir. Additionally, seven seats were reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC).
The new delimitation of constituencies is expected to have a profound impact on the upcoming 2024 Assembly elections, as it not only reshapes electoral boundaries, but also introduces new dynamics in voter representation. The realignment of constituencies is likely to influence political strategies and alliances, as parties navigate the altered electoral map in their bid to secure a majority in the newly configured Assembly.
Finally, the Assembly Elections Announcement
The long-awaited announcement of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections has been made, with voting scheduled to begin on September 19, 2024. This will be the first Assembly election in the Union Territory since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which significantly altered the region's political landscape. The elections come after a decade of dramatic shifts, including the formation of new political parties, the imposition of Governor's rule, and numerous legal and administrative changes. The upcoming polls are expected to be a crucial moment for both established and emerging political entities, offering a chance to redefine Jammu and Kashmir’s governance and address the aspirations of its residents.
The Supreme Court’s recent ruling upholding the abrogation of Article 370 and the subsequent mandate for Assembly elections by September 30, 2024, has set the stage for these pivotal elections. With a record voter turnout in the 2024 general elections and the new delimitation of constituencies, the Assembly polls will be closely watched as a barometer for political stability and public sentiment in the region. The outcomes will likely shape Jammu and Kashmir’s future trajectory and governance structure, marking a significant chapter in the region’s evolving political narrative.
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