Patna: All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) President Asaduddin Owaisi is arriving in Bihar on Friday Feb 16 for a three-day visit to the state to kick off the party's campaign for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The visit of the AIMIM chief has reinvigorated the debate around Muslim vote bank amid opponents labeling Owaisi's party 'B team of BJP'.
Owaisi is undertaking a three-day visit to Seemanchal in Bihar on Friday. During his visit to the region, In a post on X, the AIMIM said that during his visit, Owaisi will discuss with party leaders regarding the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and will also hold public meetings at various places in Seemanchal. While the AIMIM president was scheduled to chair a workers meeting at Patuakhali Fair Ground, Thakurganj in Kishanganj on 17th February he will hold a public meeting in Purnia.
The AIMIM President's Seemanchal visit gains significance in terms of the dynamics of the Muslim vote constituency in the region. Seemanchal is a Muslim dominated region, which has become the stronghold of AIMIM in Bihar in recent years. In 2020, AIMIM had won 5 seats in the assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections also, AIMIM had given a tough fight to the opponents. Seemanchal has four Lok Sabha seats and 24 assembly seats.
Out of the four Lok Sabha seats of Seemanchal, only one is with the Grand Alliance, while the NDA has three. RJD has maintained its dominance in Seemanchal for a long time on the back of the Muslim vote bank. However, with the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, the vote dynamics have completely changed in the region.
Out of more than 13 crore population in Bihar, around 17.7% are Muslims with a huge chunk living in Seemanchal region. Seemanchal, which is located along the Assam and West Bengal border, has 40 to 70 percent Muslim population. Political experts said that Owaisi has made this Seemanchal region in Bihar his political laboratory.
In the 2015 assembly elections, Owaisi had forayed into Bihar politics through Seemanchal. After not getting success in 2015 elections, the AIMIM focused on ground level workers and created a good support base in Seemanchal, the result of which was visible in the Kishanganj seat during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Here, Akhtarul Iman of the AIMIM got about 3 lakh votes, which was 26.78 percent of the votes polled overall.
The AIMIM could not win the Kishanganj seat in 2019, but it had definitely raised a hope for Owaisi. In 2019, AIMIM candidate Kamrul Hoda was successful in opening an account in Bihar with a landslide victory in the by-election held on Kishanganj assembly seat. In 2020, five MLAs of Owaisi's party had won from Seemanchal.
Inspired by this, Asaduddin Owaisi has focused on Seemanchal in view of the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 Assembly elections.
Seemanchal-Seat Breakup: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while Nitish Kumar was with NDA, JDU won two seats from the region. BJP had captured one seat from Seemanchal while Congress got one seat. In the 2020 assembly elections, out of 24 assembly seats in Seemanchal, BJP had won eight, Congress five and JDU four. RJD and CPI(ML) won one seat each. AIMIM had won five seats, four of which joined RJD last year.
AIMIM state president Akhtarul Iman said that Bihar government has neglected Seemanchal region in its welfare policies which AIMIM President will highlight during his visit. “RJD is saying that Muslim population is strongly associated with Tejashwi Yadav and Lalu Prasad Yadav. The way BJP has come to power in Bihar, the Muslim community is determined. They are not going to be misled by anyone," Iman said
Political expert Ravi Upadhyay said that Seemanchal had emerged as Owaisi's stronghold of late. “Because Owaisi has influence on the Muslim majority population. RJD has once been in power in Bihar with the help of this vote bank. It will definitely suffer loss, but BJP is sure to benefit from Owaisi's arrival not only in Seemanchal but in Bihar. Owaisi is also being called the B team of BJP,” Upadhyay remarked.
Equation of seats in Seemanchal: Out of 243 assembly seats in Bihar, there are 47 seats where Muslim voters are in a decisive position. The Muslim population in these areas is 20 to 40 percent or even more. There are 11 seats in Bihar where there are more than 40 percent Muslim voters while there are more than 30 percent Muslims in seven seats.
Apart from this, there are between 20 to 30 percent Muslim voters in 29 assembly seats as per official data. The population of Muslim community in Seemanchal area is around 40 to 70 percent. For the first time after the caste census, there has been classification of castes among Muslims also. However, it remains to be seen how Owaisi manages the population dynamics. All in all, Owaisi's visit has caused a stir among the political quarters in the state for sure.
