Srinagar: The outcome of the recent parliament elections in the Kashmir valley is a setback for two former chief ministers of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. Both faced humiliating defeats, forcing them for major course correction before facing people again in the upcoming assembly elections.
National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah was defeated by former independent MLA Abdul Rashid Sheikh, aka Engineer Rashid, by 2,04,142 votes. Rashid ho is languishing in Tihar jail for the last five years, fighting terror and money laundering allegations under UAPA.
Omar polled 2,68,339 in comparison to Rashid's whopping 472481 votes. PDP president Mehbooba too faced a drubbing in Anantnag-Rajouri seat from veteran NC Gujjar leader Mian Altaf. Mehbooba got mere 240042 votes against Altaf's 521836- a vote difference of massive 281794 .
Mehbooba and Omar are leading NC and PDP in the fragile political and electoral Kashmir politics. Their personal defeats are a reminder of their role as chief ministers when Kashmir witnessed agitations and both used iron-fist methods to crush the protesters. More than two hundred protesters were killed in Omar and Mehbooba's regimes and hundreds injured. However, the vote percentage which their parties got augurs well for them in the upcoming assembly elections as and when they are conducted.
Omar's consolation is in the fact that his party has won 35 assembly seats out of the 54 that constitute the three parliament seats of Baramulla, Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri. For Mehbooba, she has to resurrect her party that saw major exodus of 40 leaders after abrogation of the article 370, and the public backlash it still faces for its coalition with BJP after 2014 assembly elections. This government formation lingers over her personal politics and her party's future.
NC's Performance
Omar's personal defeat has him shocked, but two of his party's candidates, Mian Altaf and Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, have got the majority of voters for his party. Of the 54 assembly segments, NC has got the lead in 35 seats.
In Baramulla where jailed Engineer Rashid, took a landslide victory against Omar and Sajad Lone, NC took the lead in only three assembly segments of Budgam, Gurez and Pattan in Baramulla. Engineer Rashid swept the remaining 14 segments. But NC's voter share remains second in 11 assembly segments while only lagging third in Trehgam, Kupwara and Langate.
In Srinagar parliament seat, NC's performance is overwhelmingly good compared to previous elections held since 2002. The party led in 16 assembly segments. In the eight seats of Srinagar district, NC results show it does not have any competitor in the immediate future.
NC's voter percentage in Anantnag-Rajouri is encouraging as the party has won 15 of the 18 assembly seats. Of the seven seats of Rajouri and Poonch, NC swept all, indicating that the party has emerged stronger in Pir Panjal. The INDI alliance factor also helped NC to get big numbers as the Congress party has a strong presence in Rajouri and Poonch. However, in the assembly elections probably being held by September end, NC and Congress may lock horns in these seats should the INDI alliance sustain by then and this vote share will split between their candidates.
NC spokesperson Imran Nabi said that the party has emerged leading in the 35 assembly segments in Kashmir and the party will emerge even stronger in the upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
PDP's Rebuilding
For Mehbooba, her personal defeat from her home constituency and the defeat of the youth leader Waheed Para from Srinagar are major setbacks for her and her party's near-future prospects. PDP fared drastically in Baramulla where its candidate Mir Fayaz, former Rajya Sabha MP, lost his security deposit. It's vote percentage in Srinagar district is abysmally low so much so that the party will take decades to regroup in the city.
PDP got lead in Pulwama, Rajpora, Anantnag, Bijbehara and Anantnag West. Of the five assembly segments of Pulwama district and one seat of Shopian, PDP got setbacks in Tral, Pampore, Shopian- all these seats were considered bastions of PDP since 2002 elections. Of the 18 assembly segments in Anantnag, PDP led in three seats of Anantnag, Anantnag West and Bijbehara assembly segments.
PDP leaders said that besides getting lead in five seats in Anantnag and Pulwama districts, it has got encouraging votes in nine other assembly segments. PDP stood second in Tral, Pampore in Pulwama district, Shopian and Zainpora in Shopian district, Ganderbal, Kangan in Ganderbal district, Chadoora, Chrari Sharief in Budgam district, Hazratbal in Srinagar, Damhal-Hanjipora, Shangus, Devsar, Kulgam in Kulgam district, Kokernag, Dooru, Pahalgam in Anantnag district and Thanamandi, Surankote, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli in Rajouri and Poonch districts.
Commenting on the dismal results for PDP, iltija Mufti, media advisor and daughter of Mehbooba Mufti said that “our journey of rebuilding PDP has only begun.” Explaining this further, the senior PDP leaders quoted above said that the party leadership is mulling to make organizational changes to strengthen the party on the ground.
“Our major efforts will be made in the south Kashmir assembly segments, where the party got significant vote share in the parliament elections. We will ensure that these seats are won by our party in the upcoming assembly elections,” senior party leaders told ETV Bharat.
Political observers said that NC and PDP have to recalibrate their politics with the outcome of the parliament elections and post-article 370 abrogation scenario and not to take voters for granted.
