The Lok Sabha result is unusual. It makes the winners feel like losers. And losers like winners.
Let us explain. The BJP was not only expecting a simple majority of 272 seats. It had set its mind on what it called ‘400 paar’. So, when it won only 240, it did appear as if it had lost. Though you must consider that its tally was far more than that of the second-largest group, the Congress Party, which only managed to win 99 seats. But BJP was downcast because it not only fell far short of its own 400-mark but even the half-way mark of 272 by 32 seats.
As for the Congress Party, for the third successive election it failed to come anywhere near the half-way mark. Even after adding its tally of 44, 52 and 99 in the last three elections, the total seats won are a good 45 short of what the BJP has won in the 2024 election. So, you may well ask, why is Rahul Gandhi going around as if he has won the election.
Unless, of course, he had set himself a modest goal of denying the BJP a majority. He can justifiably claim success in this limited mission. Yet, he was not able to prevent Modi from becoming prime minister for the third successive time. This is not a small feat, last achieved by the first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1962 election.
So let us get this straight. If Rahul Gandhi still needs another analogy to put the outcome of the 2024 poll in perspective, he ought to consider this one from the world of cricket. Assume Virat Kohli were to publicly commit himself to score three centuries on the trot in as many matches. But after two successive centuries, he falls short of the three-figure score in the third match by ten or so runs. Can he be dubbed a loser, a no-good batsman? The answer is clear.
The ‘400-paar’ slogan harmed the BJP campaign. Because it allowed the Congress to spread the lie that Modi wanted 400 seats so that he can dump the Constitution and stop reservations for the scheduled castes and tribes and even for the Other Backward Castes. The propaganda misled a huge section of Dalits in Uttar Pradesh, who voted for the Congress and Samajwadi party, even deserting Mayawati’s BSP.
Again, as a direct fall-out of the ‘400-paar’ goal, the 20-percent Muslims got consolidated against the BJP, determined to stop Modi from becoming PM. Mid-way through the campaign, when the BJP realized that the Congress propaganda about it abandoning the Constitution was finding traction, it attempted damage-control. Modi’s statement that the Congress wanted to abandon SC-ST and OBC reservations and instead give them to Muslims was meant to counter the Opposition propaganda about the rejection of the Constitution.
However, in actual effect, the anti-Muslim rhetoric only firmed up the determination of Muslims to vote against the BJP. Answering the exhortation of the Maulvis and mullahs and other community leaders, Muslims voted like one man to defeat BJP. In UP, they did not waste their vote by voting for weak Muslim candidates fielded by BSP or other groups.
Such was the Muslim consolidation that even a clever leader like Hemanta Sarma, the Chief Minister of Assam, was lamenting the role Muslim voters played in defeating the BJP candidates in three Lok Sabha seats. Or consider the fate of the leader of Opposition in the outgoing Lok Sabha. Adhir Ranjan Choudhry. He had been winning the Behrampur seat in West Bengal since the late 90s. But he lost this time to the former cricketer from Gujarat, Yusuf Pathan. The seat has 52 percent Muslims.
After losing by over 70,000 votes, Chaudhry said, “…Gave my sweat and blood for Behrampur for thirty years. What can I do. I accept my defeat.” En bloc Muslim votes for Pathan, a Muslim from Gujarat felled Chowdhury. Period.
Yet another relevant fact. In Rampur Lok Sabha constituency in UP, there is a village which is one hundred percent populated by Muslims. In this village, nearly 550 houses were given to the poor by the Yogi Government under the Prime Minister’s Awas Yogna. Over 2,300-odd votes were polled. Not one, repeat not one, was in favour of BJP.
No doubt, the BJP central leadership ignored the wishes of Yogi and other State leaders in ticket distribution. Not only ticket distribution, other facets of the entire poll exercise were controlled by Delhi. Therefore, the central leaders must bear responsibility for the failure of the party to go past the 272-mark.
Meanwhile, let us deal with the expectation in the Congress camp of Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu rocking the Modi boat. They will not. For two reasons, both know that a stable government with the INDIA bloc is just not possible. Two, even if the JD(U) and TDP were to withdraw support, which they are most unlikely to do, the Modi government can rely on the support of unattached MPs to cross the half-way mark. Equally important is the fact that with Modi as prime minister, they can extract favourable treatment for their states.
Also, Modi is not always amenable and amicable like Vajpayee was. He cannot be bent. A strong leader by disposition, he would rather precipitate an early election than surrender to the blackmail of allies. As long Modi runs NDA-3.0, he would run with a firm and assured hand, not wavering like Manmohan Singh when there were as many prime ministers as there were parties in the UPA-1.0 and UPA-2.0.
Yes, the new government will try and be kind to its critics. But here again, given the fact that Rahul Gandhi shows no restraint and even responsibility in attacking the Modi Government -- consider the outlandish charge that Modi and Shah were behind the share market volatility following the results of various exit polls. Aggression and confrontation by Rahul Gandhi will be put down with a firm hand by the Modi government because Modi is neither weak nor meek à la Manmohan Singh.
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Decoding NDA's Win That Feels Like A Loss: How BJP Went From '400 Paar' To 32 Short
