In politics, there are years when nothing happens, then there are days when decades happen. Looking at the things that unfolded on June 4 and the following days, it’s very clear that the next five years in Indian politics is going to be a very, very long time.
On Sunday evening, Modi took oath as PM of India for the 3rd consecutive time, but Modi 3.0 has no parallel with the first innings of PM Modi and Modi 2.0. Modi is forced to accommodate allies in the cabinet. However, he chooses to retain his core team. The idea is to push the ‘all-is-as-good-as-before’’ narrative. But in reality, Modi will be playing on a turf completely unfamiliar to him in his entire political career.
Narendra Modi's political career has largely been characterised by his leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a context where coalition politics has not been a significant feature. His governance style and strategies have predominantly revolved around single-party dominance.
India’s 2024 mandate has changed the scenario and is going to be extremely significant in the course of Indian political history. Even the carefully crafted camera angles and the voice-over of the swearing-in ceremony failed to hide the discomfort in the body language of the leadership.
So what will happen now?
The coalition partners will want their share of flesh. Their massive bargaining power will curtail the flamboyant characteristic that’s typical of brand Modi. Not seeing the same Modi in appearance and action would erode the massive fan following he enjoys.
For Narendra Modi, maintaining his macho image is going to be the biggest challenge. For 12 years he had ruled the state of Gujarat with absolute majority. For 10 years, Modi has been ruling India with absolute majority. This is the first time, the BJP is short of a simple majority, a completely unfamiliar turf for Modi.
Modi’s governance style is marked by strong centralised decision-making, often emphasising the role of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). This approach is more feasible in a single-party government where internal dissent can be more easily managed. Even as the Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014, Modi led a government where the BJP did not rely on coalition partners.
His style is also characterised by exercising maximum power, total control over the media narratives, continuous humiliation of the opposition, total control over government institutions, confining thought leaders and independent voices, ridiculing protesters etc. The supporters love the religious, allusive, militant and masculine image of their master. They like their invincible leader in action, one who remains unchallenged. To an extent, a bulldozer, a destructor had emerged as a celebrated symbol of the ruling regime in the Hindi belt.
With the focus shifting to manage the coalition, it’s unlikely that Modi’s millions of supporters are going to see the same characteristics of their master. Coalition politics requires extensive negotiation to accommodate the interests of multiple parties.
Modi must be well aware that two leaders of the two major coalition partners, Nitish Kumar of JDU and Chandrababu Naidu of TDP have used very strong words against him in the past. If the INDIA bloc offers a bigger pound of flesh, they may not hesitate to change sides.
Brand Narendra Modi was born in the 2002 Gujarat communal violence. Very few had heard of Narendra Modi when Gujarat CM Keshubhai Patel was replaced by Narendra Modi. He was known to be close to the then Deputy PM L K Advani. Modi had played a very significant role in organising Advani’s infamous Rath Yatra in 1990 that eventually led to the demolition of the Babri mosque in 1992 and catapulted BJP to power in the Centre.
Historical examples of leaders losing their majority in parliament, resulting in weakened leadership, often involve significant political instability and challenges to governance. One prominent example of a political leader who experienced a significant decline in popularity towards the end of their tenure is Margaret Thatcher, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (1979-1990).
Once nicknamed "The Iron Lady", she was re-elected for a third term in 1987. But her increasingly Eurosceptic views on the European Community were not shared by others in her cabinet. She had to resign as prime minister and party leader in 1990, after a challenge was launched to her leadership, and was succeeded by John Major.
Though the BJP alone may not have their own numbers, but for Modi and Shah the situation is not completely unfamiliar. In 2017 assembly elections in Gujarat, The BJP got 99 out of 182 seats which is just above the majority mark, which is not a very comfortable situation for the BJP. The famous ‘Gujarat Model’ came into effect and dozens of Congress leaders joined BJP in the next five years. Several bypolls were held, most of which were won by the BJP, taking their strength from 99 to 112 seats before the 2022 assembly elections. In 2022, the BJP won a super majority of 156 seats, the most ever won by any party in Gujarat's history. The Congress fell to its lowest count in the state in 3 decades.
It’s extremely likely that Modi and Shah will implement this Gujarat Model in the Centre to improve their tally. Because, if they don’t succeed, the NDA may be forced to consider changing the face of the PM in a due course to complete a full five-year term.
The biggest headache Modi and Shah are going to face now is due to the internal strife within BJP. Most would emerge from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.
The lack of competent people in the government to manage governance effectively especially inflation, unemployment and farm distress may see a surge of protests across the nation. The gap of just 2.3 per cent vote share between NDA (43.7 per cent) and INDIA bloc (41.4 per cent) in the 2024 results will continue to haunt the BJP. The upcoming assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, and J&K, will further test the brand Modi.
(The writer is a Professor of Communication Design, specialising in political communication and branding. A post-graduate from National Institute of Design (NID), Ahmedabad, Prof Mishra is an award-winning film-maker and has held senior positions at various academic institutes.)
