After a 5-year lull following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, Kashmir is witnessing a new narrative where participation in elections -- either by voting or contesting -- is no longer considered life-threatening. Both were forbidden in the valley earlier and treated as an act of betrayal. The voter turnout remained abysmally low for the last three decades until the numbers significantly improved in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The success in parliamentary elections was a prelude to the confident political campaigning in Assembly polls with door-to-door campaigns, road shows and rallies returning to the valley.
Election machinery
There was a time in Kashmir when employees, knowing the perils involved, would use their political and bureaucratic contacts to ensure their names were not listed in election duty rosters. Their fear was not unfounded as scores of people laid down their lives in the line of duty. The victims were neither contestants nor combatants but employees in various departments tasked to manage the elections as part of their regular service.
The past political equation
Due to the lack of competition, regional parties would always have an advantage in electoral politics. Voters would abstain from voting because of fear of retaliation from the former separatist constituents. Separatist groups and their allies would call for a poll boycott, leaving the ground open for parties like the National Conference (NC) and Jammu Kashmir People's Democratic Party (PDP). However, the situation has turned on its head this time as the bigwigs NC and PDP are up against those who boast significant public support. Besides, as more people feel confident to come out and vote, the odds go against the likes of Abdullahs and Muftis, who would otherwise win nearly unopposed in their bastions.
'Idea of Kashmir'
Traditional parties, such as the National Conference, the People’s Conference, and the PDP, are at odds with each other or with some independents who previously represented the boycott camp. One of the key players happens to be Sheikh Rashid locally known as Engineer Rashid who defeated Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone in the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat of North Kashmir earlier this year.
Now that he has been released from Tihar jail on interim bail, Rashid is running in the assembly polls in alliance with candidates supported by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami. Rashid's victory in the general elections undoubtedly shook Abdullahs, Lones, and Muftis. Presumably, they had taken the voters for granted believing the voters’ loyalties were with the parties and not with the ‘idea of Kashmir’. Engineer is pitching the ‘idea of Kashmir’ and has so far been successful in achieving the desired milestone that he wanted to accrue through electoral politics.
Engineer Rashid
Because Abdullahs, Muftis, and Lones have all previously allied with the BJP, that makes them a second choice for people after independents backed by Jamaat or Rashid. Unlike Jammu, people in Kashmir, particularly those who believe elections are a potential tool to bring about change on the ground, are looking for candidates that resonate with the 'idea of Kashmir'. Rashid is an excellent fit for that as he has historically been vocal, has spent time in jail and is educated, can read and write well. In the same breath, the scepticism that permeates Kashmir causes people to target and label individuals like Rashid as a BJP agent.
The BJP is not contesting from many seats in Kashmir since they are most likely playing through proxies, knowing that votes between regional parties will likely divide and may make way for newer candidates who can later declare their affiliation with the BJP. This is what politicians like Farooq Abdullah allege.
Fight for legacy
The political careers of many second and third-generation politicians are at stake. To salvage their careers, Lones and Abdullahs are contesting from two seats each. Intending to outwit the other two legacy leaders of PC and NC, Mehbooba kept herself off the polls and fielded her daughter Iltija Mufti from her home turf, Bijbehara, which she found the only safe constituency to launch her from. Bijbehara is her home constituency from where her father Mufti Sayeed once contested and won. Sayeed is buried there. Mufti’s grave facing the Srinagar Jammu national highway may also help junior Mufti garner some support which may help turn into a vote base.
Unlike Muftis, Omar Abdullah’s Sonwar (in Srinagar) where he lives could not qualify as a constituency for him. Considering the current circumstances, he felt the constituency was unsafe to contest. Omar chose Budgam as his second seat to run from along with Ganderbal because he believed Aga Ruhullah, a Srinagar MP, could help him win the seat for his loyal voter base in Budgam.
Omar Abdullah is contesting from Ganderbal after two decades. In 2002, he was defeated by Qazi Afzal of PDP, an unknown figure then. All the legacy parties are striving for their existence and survival knowing the mandate will be fractured, and an alliance will form the government. It will be interesting to see how things unfold and which of the axes will finally prevail and set the next course of action. Inevitably, voter participation is going to be crucial for Engineer Rashid and those who support him, as low voter turnout may likely benefit the old guards.
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